Practical Knowledge-Based Tools for Conflict Planning and Scheduling

1. Practical Knowledge-Based Tools for Conflict Planning and Scheduling

2. Outline • The challenge • An overview of the process • Task Expansion and scheduling • Domains • Highlights

3. The Challenge Research and development projects that satisfy requirements for systems to support specialized force offensive operations directed against terrorist activities and group…sustainment and protection of small military units that are deployed in remote areas Combating Terrorism BAA 02-Q-4655 OSD(AT&L) Retain freedom of action to engage at tactical standoff, move, and re-engage…exploit enemy vulnerabilities as opportunities present themselves ..develop the situation out of contact…shape the fight and posture maneuver forces from positions of advantage to defeat the enemy…. engage the enemy at the time and place of their choosing, and achieve victory with synchronized combined arms. Army FCS MNS Precision Engagement - the Army will need a system of systems that enables joint forces to locate the objective or target; provide responsive command and control; generate the desired effect; assess the level of success; and retain the flexibility to re-engage with precision when required. Shaping the battlefield sets the conditions for success and directly links to decisive operations. Army Vision 2010 In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable. Dwight D. Eisenhower (1890 - 1969)

4. The planning process Mission analysis High-level tasks Expansion and analysis Executable plan • The enemy defends vic Hill 782; reinforcing units enroute ETA 091830 Dec • Suspected terrorists are located in room on NW corner of 3rd floor in bldg on Calle Verde • Report of bio agent release at west entrance to Rockefeller Center Who, what, when, where? (Situational awareness) What must be done? (Mission from higher) Enemy situation and COAs Specified and implied tasks Restated mission

5. The planning process Mission analysis High-level tasks Expansion and analysis Executable plan • The enemy defends vic Hill 782; reinforcing units enroute ETA 091830 Dec • Suspected terrorists are located on 3rd floor of bldg on Calle Verde • Report of bio agent release at west entrance to Rockefeller Center • 1st Bde conducts main attack on left, 3d Bde supporting attk on right; 2nd Bde follow and support 3rd Bde • Team 3 secure road intersection at CP7 NLT H+0:03; Team 2 enter bldg from roof and clear 3rd floor; Indirect fire set #2 – 2 rounds on TGT 0137 @ H+0:17 • NYPD secures 5th Ave between 42nd and 47th; Bio detection teams 1,3, 4 establish safe zone at 42nd & 5th Ave; Triage for contaminated wounded estab at NE corner of NY Public Library

6. The planning process Mission analysis High-level tasks Expansion and analysis Executable plan • The enemy defends vic Hill 782; reinforcing units enroute ETA 091830 Dec • Suspected terrorists are located on 3rd floor of bldg on Calle Verde • Report of bio agent release at west entrance to Rockefeller Center • 1st Bde conducts main attack on left, 3d Bde supporting attk on right; 2nd Bde follow and support 3rd Bde • Team 3 secure road intersection at CP7 NLT H+0:03; Team 2 enter bldg from roof and clear 3rd floor; Indirect fire set #2 – 2 rounds on TGT 0137 @ H+0:17 • NYPD secures 5th Ave between 42nd and 47th; Bio detection teams 1,3, 4 establish safe zone at 42nd & 5th Ave; Triage for contaminated patients estab at NE corner of NY Public Library • Task expansion algorithm • Knowledge base • Physical/rules-based calculations • Temporal constraints • Resourcing • Conflict resolution

7. Human-in-the-loop (I.e. Interleaved planning) Reasonable so far? Changes? Modifications? Back up – modify – plan again! The planning process • Task expansion algorithm • Knowledge base • Physical/rules-based calculations • Temporal constraints • Resourcing • Conflict resolution Algorithm Main Flow 1. Choose the next activity to expand. 2. Call this activity’s expansion method to create supporting activities; propagate time constraints among the new activities. 3. Perform resource allocation and scheduling for this activity. 4. If the number of newly-added activities exceeds N, stop and present plan to user on synchronization matrix; else repeat 1-4. • Expansion Method • Creates supporting activities appropriate to the activity: if traverses a route, infers activities from items found on route (phase lines, other units, obstacles) • Sets time constraints among the supporting activities • Sets resource candidates appropriate to the supporting activities • Number crunching • The distance from Point A to Point B is 3.5 kms. The units move at 25 kmph. They burn X gallons of fuel; it takes Y minutes and they require use of the route for Z period. • An anti-tank minefield intended to disrupt enemy movement, 100 m x 1,200 m, requires A anti-tank mines, B hours to emplace and C man-hours of labor

8. The planning process • Task expansion algorithm • Knowledge base • Physical/rules-based calculations • Temporal constraints • Resourcing • Conflict resolution Knowledge Base Built from SMEs and doctrinal references. Expansible, flexible, detailed Tool under development to make KB maintenance and expansion easier, faster, less reliant on contractor support Intent is a powerful differentiator – the “why” often determines actions and outcomes Knowledge Base Management Tool User creates new activities/sub-activities In many cases, current objects can be modified or re-defined to accommodate minor changes or local preferences and added directly to the KB on-the-fly. For activities requiring additions to the software, comment screens allow the user to document the desired modifications for the developer to complete off-line. Build – Test – Build: with practice, one can build a new basic activity in minutes, create an activity in OpenMap and test it in TEE. Check for problems and modify the activity in KBMT in seconds.

9. The planning process • Task expansion algorithm • Knowledge base • Physical/rules-based calculations • Temporal constraints • Resourcing • Conflict resolution Timing is everything Event A starts after Event B ends. Event C starts 15 minutes after Event A starts. Event D ends before Event C ends. The beginning or ending of an activity can be linked to the beginning or end of any other activity. Time intervals are inserted (or set to zero for simultaneous events) with a range from zero to infinite. Over-constraining the time relationships can lead to infeasibilities. Resourcing Units to perform tasks come from user-defined list of candidates (if present) , otherwise from activity-based list of preferred units Interfaces exist to import critical data on unit disposition, weapons systems, fuel levels and ammunition stockages from JDCB or other data sources. Consumption rates adapted from standard Army planning factors to make them activity-based, rather than mission-based. Adaptable to Equipment Usage Profiles as they become available. Over-extending resources can lead to infeasibilities. Impact of logistics on tactics Resupply at the battalion/task force level is fully modeled. LOGPACs operate between BSA and combat trains. Logistics becomes a constraining factor as distances increase. This can be turned off to allow focus on the tactical issues separately from the log issues. Automatically schedules resupply operations, using look ahead capability to avoid dampening momentum.

10. The planning process Action-Reaction-Counteraction (A-R-C) Thinking enemy with independent action. If we do this, they’ll do that, so we should anticipate and counter with something else. Example: US captures terrorist leader (action), terrorist groups attempt a “big” kidnapping (to elicit maximum publicity and force cooperation) to obtain release (reaction). What is the appropriate counter-action? One possibility is to predict the most likely targets of the kidnapping and take aggressive action to protect them concurrent with announcing the terrorist’s capture. Failure to take action carries a consequence, I.e. if you don’t provide adequate force protection, losses usually occur. • Task expansion algorithm • Knowledge base • Physical/rules-based calculations • Temporal constraints • Resourcing • Conflict resolution Conflict Resolution Modeling Some type of quick, reliable, easily understood model is required to permit planning to proceed. Typical operations involve a sequence of engagements for multiple units. Timing for follow-on activities and collateral functions is keyed to the outcome of earlier events. Example: the amount of time it takes 2d Brigade to seize OBJ SWORD depends on their combat power relative to the enemy. If an earlier fight reduces 2d Brigade’s strength by 12%, that must be factored in. In extreme cases, it can mean the difference between success and failure in later activities. Users are comfortable with the realities of it. This is only an estimate, meant to allow comparison of various options and to permit forward planning. Two methods are offered, both of them equation-based. One uses historical factors while the other invokes a method developed with the assistance of BCBL, BCTP and CGSC. Objective capability is a seamless linkage with a simulation, such as J-MACE, to perform more in-depth analysis and evaluate the brittleness of the plan.

11. The planning process Mission analysis High-level tasks Expansion and analysis Executable plan • The enemy defends vic Hill 782; reinforcing units enroute ETA 091830 Dec • Suspected terrorists are located on 3rd floor of bldg on Calle Verde • Report of bio agent release at west entrance to Rockefeller Center • 1st Bde conducts main attack on left, 3d Bde supporting attk on right; 2nd Bde follow and support 3rd Bde • Team 3 secure road intersection at CP7 NLT H+0:03; Team 2 enter bldg from roof and clear 3rd floor; Indirect fire set #2 – 2 rounds on TGT 0137 @ H+0:17 • NYPD secures 5th Ave between 42nd and 47th; Bio detection teams 1,3, 4 establish safe zone at 42nd & 5th Ave; Triage for contaminated patients estab at NE corner of NY Public Library • Task expansion algorithm • Knowledge base • Physical/rules-based calculations • Temporal constraints • Resourcing • Conflict resolution • Output synch matrix in text via Excel spreadsheet • Wide spread publication of unit or team-specific mission orders possible via HTML or PDA-based messaging • Sharing with other systems facilitated by XML • Conditions exist to support in-execution re-planning

12. Domains for application • Conventional heavy mechanized forces • First domain modeled • Basis for force-on-force engagements – uses an intelligent, thinking enemy with freedom of action • Most fully documented and largest pool of domain expertise Too many interactions to determine all of the impacts of changes without assistance • Domestic response to terrorism • Limited sources for domain knowledge • Modeling of enemy is problematic – isolated events are well bounded but overall campaign is wide-open. • Build-test-build method works well. Rapid prototyping. • Tactical level Special Operations Forces • Much larger set of potential environments • Extend planning down to individual/team level • Reveals the need for an efficient way to capture, save, further explore branches. • Increases the need for a simulation linkage to explore plan sensitivity in more depth. • Future Combat Systems • Similarities to tactical level SOF (dispersed ops, modeling to low level, diverse applications) • New approach for acquiring and engaging • New considerations for protecting, maneuvering forces • Very close in nature to in-execution re-planning; highlights need to build this capability.

13. Highlights • Experiments have shown results comparable to current practice in a fraction of the time • Knowledge base easily extensible to any operational domain • With basic KB in place, knowledge base management tools allow individual users to extend or tailor it to unique needs • User acceptance of results. • Component of Agile Commander program – interfacing with DaVinci • Previous integrations: • Fox GA (DARPA’s Command Post of the Future) • ICCES (BCBL-L CEP) • ASAS-Lite (ABCS system, BCBL-H CEP) • BPV & MCS (CECOM Prairie Warrior) • Evolving doctrine (evolving DTLOMS) • Need for modeling of over-the-horizon, stand-off engagements • Need to explore implications of semi-autonomous operations with concentrated fires • Need to explore mapping of near-term battle execution to long-term operational goals and objectives • Better modeling of enemy with comparable evolutionary capabilities. • Recent advances in planning techniques have set the stage for development of a true in-execution re-planning capability • Our technology pioneered re-planning with consideration to existing plan with Continuity-Guided Regeneration under the TRAC2ES program • New visualization techniques are available to focus analysis of “plan vs. actual.” • Proposal for R&D effort submitted to ARL

14. Back-up Slides

15. Current Practice for Army & Marines • Goal: • Wargame 3 friendly COAs against 2 enemy COAs • 6 wargames • 4-5 persons • 1 ½ - 4 hours each • Extend to any branches & sequels identified in the process Automated Automated support Focus of our effort Reality: Wargame 1 friendly COA in detail against enemy’s most likely COA Cursory effort for all other COA pairs and for any B&S

16. Concerns Voiced Automated support Are there better conflict resolution models? (why not use the Army standard?) Focus of our effort • How did you get that answer? War is mainly an art, not a science • I don’t have time to use a computer You’ll get locked into fighting the plan! • How do you deal with changing doctrine? • I want to use my own planning factors

17. Words of Encouragement Automated support There’s not enough time to manually wargame 3 vs 2. Focus of our effort • Having the S-2 fight the enemy doesn’t work well If the computer could help with the science, it would free me to focus on the art • The Rommels and Pattons don’t need this, but…most brigade planners have limited experience With the right displays (and training), we won’t fight the plan - maybe a cartoon sketch? This would be handy when you’re tired, and it’s cold and you’re running on too little sleep

18. Additional comments along the way “It’s not about my 12 knowns against his 12 knowns. It’s about my 12 knowns against his 6 knowns and his 3 probablys and any number of unknowns.”Armor Lt Col “Give me tanks to kill and a choice of TacAir, Army attack helos, M1s and TOWs and I know what to do. When there’s an abundance of things to throw at it, I don’t have a problem. It’s when there are more targets than I can take out with my first choice, and now I’m having to juggle too many targets with too few resources; that’s where I need help!”Infantry Colonel “Guys get locked into thinking 2-dimensionally and they lose every time. They get a 3-to-1 force ratio and suddenly they think that means everything’s okay. They’ve got to think in more directions than ever before. There are more things goingon. And it’s only going to get worse as we go to the new doctrine that’s evolving.”Cavalry Lt Col

19. XML JCDB direct connection Evolutionary process Starting guidance Current guidance • Sun workstation • Stand alone planner • MCS plug-in (current Army maneuver C2 system) • Heavy, mechanized forces • Concentrateon maneuver (but consider other BOS) • Traditional force-on-force conflict • Focus only on the wargaming step. • Laptop • Support collaborative planning • (1) DaVinci module; (2) stand-alone capability; (3) MCS plug-in • Adaptable to light forces, special ops, non-combatants, civil defense ops • Synchronize combined arms; exploit intel • Asynchronous warfare, evolving doctrine • Seamless interoperation with other tools • Identify systems that perform supporting functions best and develop means to work together • COA sketching • Terrain analysis • Current operations tracking • Back-end simulation support

20. Considerations • System of systems • Concentrate effects, not forces • Take advantage of advanced communications, but – still able to act within the plan parameters when comms are spotty • Opponents are becoming more sophisticated in their use of automation, communications and the internet

21. Building a Course of Action • Number of means available to enter initial COAs • nuSketch – most advanced COA drawing tool available; easy to learn • FOX GA – creates a range of possible options • DaVinci – in development; intended to replace BPV • OpenMap – flexible mapping tool, widely used in DoD and other govt agencies nuSketch – Northwestern Univ – highly advanced COA tool OpenMap – open source, DII COE-compliant

22. Notional Special Ops plan Partial synch matrix ++ easy to read, familiar format ++ portable, flexible -- hard to grasp overall concepts -- temporal relationships unclear -- hard to identify cause & effect • 16 units/teams • Robots • TacAir • Helos • Ground elements • Indirect fire sets

23. AA Whiskey AA Whiskey TF Snake SF ISB ISB RP 7 drop Team 2 & 6 drop Team 1 TF Hawk TF Hawk drop Team 5 drop Team 3 & 4 AA Sierra AA Sierra TF Falcon TF Falcon Map-based display Map display ++ easy to read, familiar format ++ temporal and spatial relationships clearer ++ visual displays can be expanded with object color, size, shape, rotation, shading, fill, drill-down -- lacks portability -- requires multiple views to communicate time-sequencing -- scaling is an issue, need to zoom in to critical junctures -- hard to identify cause & effect