September 2011 USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Region

1. September 2011 USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Region Climate Change and Forest Biodiversity: A Vulnerability Assessment and Action Plan for National Forests in Western Washington Carol Aubry, Forest Geneticist, Olympic National Forest Warren Devine, Forest Researcher Andy Bower, Forest Geneticist, Olympic National Forest Robin Shoal, Forest Ecologist, Olympic National Forest Jeanne Miller, GIS specialist Nicole Maggiulli, Biologist

2. The question: How can the three national forests in western Washington conserve biodiversity and increase resilience, given predicted changes in climate? The goal: A 5-year, practical action plan to implement in partnership w/ NPS, WDNR, PNW Research Station The focus: • Forest tree species, both widespread and rare • Non-forested habitats vulnerable to climate change

3. Topics include: • Selecting a vulnerability assessment (VA) approach • Compiling information • Applying the VA • Non-forested habitats • Tools and management options • Recommendations and action plan

4. Selecting a Vulnerability Assessment Approach • Objective: find a flexible, transparent system of rating vulnerability of tree species to climate change • NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index version 2.0 • Climate Change Sensitivity Database (Univ. Washington; part of the Pacific Northwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment) • Forest Tree Genetic Risk Assessment System, ForGRAS (Potter & Crane; Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center)

5. Vulnerability Assessment (ForGRAS model) • Quantitatively rate and rank tree species based on predicted climate change vulnerability • “..to help land managers and policy makers focus planning activities and thus make the most effective use of limited resources.” • Spreadsheet model; vulnerability score of 0 to 100 (100=most vulnerable) • Modified for our objectives and region • We chose variables based on accepted scientific data • Peer-review resulted in removal of habitat models • Assumed increased temperature & summer drought; did not include large-scale disturbances

6. Compiling Information for the Vulnerability Assessment • 34 tree species • Grouped for analysis: • Group 1 – (15) common overstory species • Group 2 – (15) limited distribution, or midstory/understory • Group 3 – (4) rare in western Washington: golden chinquapin, whitebark pine, Rocky mountain juniper, ponderosa pine • Quantitative VA (ForGRAS) applied only to Group 1 • Primary reason was data availability

7. Compiling Information for the Vulnerability Assessment • Mapped documented occurrences • Compiled information relevant to climate change vulnerability • Habitat, reproduction, genetics, threats

8. Five Risk Factors (ForGRAS Model) • Distribution • frequency of occurrence, distribution of occurrences • Reproductive Capacity • seed production, min. seed-bearing age, seed dispersal distance • Adaptive Genetic Variation • generalist vs. specialist, disjunct populations • Habitat Affinities • drought tolerance, successional stage • Insect and Disease Threats • ID’d by USFS Forest Health Protection

9. Vulnerability Assessment Results • Trend in increasing vulnerability with increasing mean elevation • But not sensitive to the elevation variable • Important findings appeared during the process • Knowledge gaps • Some did not influence model, but were part of recommendations

10. Tools and Management Options • Gene conservation • Ex situ and In situ genetic resources (e.g., seed orchards and seed in storage) • Monitoring • Tree phenology and growth • Genetic variation and population structure • Vegetation management options • Thinning and planting • Assisted migration

11. Non-Forested Habitats • Most-vulnerable habitats selected and analyzed (non-quantitatively) based on scientific literature and interviews with scientists from the major land management agencies • Recommendations focused on: • Need for baseline data • Improved maps and inventories • Prioritization of sites for restoration and monitoring Wetlands Alpine and subalpine Native dry grasslands

12. Recommendations and Management Actions Three themes: • Learn about and track changes in plant communities as the climate changes • Maintain and increase biodiversity and increase resilience • Prepare for the future

13. 1. Learn about and track changes in plant communities as the climate changes • Assess health and regeneration of high-elevation species: subalpine fir, mountain hemlock, and Alaska yellowcedar • Assess genetic variation and population structure of species with disjunct populations: • Noble fir and Pacific silver fir in the Willapa Hills • Engelmann spruce on the Olympic Peninsula • Measure population genetics of golden chinquapin • Establish a pilot program to monitor vegetative and reproductive phenology in seed orchards (with PNW and WDNR)

14. 2. Maintain and increase biodiversity and increase resilience • Develop a pilot project to plant blister rust-resistant western white pine in openings created in young stands • Develop a partnership between the Forest Service, WDNR, and private landowners to map, conserve, and restore the sensitive species golden chinquapin on the Olympic Peninsula

15. 3. Prepare for the future • Partner with other land managers in western Washington to create a virtual cooperative tree seed bank to facilitate large-scale reforestation • Maintain an inventory of high-quality seed for tree species likely to be needed over the next 20 years; assess viability of stored seed • Maintain seed orchards which serve as gene conservation areas and are the national forests’ most efficient source of high-quality tree seed

16. What’s next? • Analyze five other subregions in OR and WA (2011) • Refine the approach • Sensitivity analysis • Plant Association Groups (PAGs) • Combine all results and recommendations into final report (2012)

17. Acknowledgments • Vicky Erickson, Tom DeMeo, and Kathy O’Halloran for providing financial and program support for this project. • Technical support and advice: Dominique Bachelet, Cheryl Bartlett, Kristen Chadwick, Rex Crawford, Chris Dowling, Gregory Filip, Jeffrey Foster, Joe Gates, Lise Grace, Andrew Gray, Jessica Halofsky, William Hargrove, Bruce Hostetler, Robin Lesher, Laura Potash Martin, Mike Messier, Jeff Muehleck, Marshall Murray, David Peter, Kevin Potter, IralRagenovich, Ann Risvold, Joe Rocchio, Regina Rochefort, Andrea Ruchty, Mark Senger, Linda Swartz, Karen Wells, and Beth Willhite. • We thank the following people for reviews: Dominique Bachelet, Cheryl Bartlett, Rex Crawford, Tom DeSpain, Vicky Erickson, Jeffrey Foster, Sharon Friedman, John Gross, Jessica Halofsky, Constance Harrington, Matt Horning, Glenn Howe, Laura Potash Martin, Kathy O’Halloran, Greg O’Neill, David Peterson, Susan Piper, Kevin Potter, IralRagenovich, Bryce Richardson, Ann Risvold, Joe Rocchio, Regina Rochefort, Brad St. Clair, Marcus Warwell, and Beth Willhite. • We thank Mary Carr of Forest Service Publishing Arts Staff for editorial support.

18. For more information, contact Carol Aubry, Olympic National Forest, Olympia, Washington; caubry@fs.fed.us Subalpine Meadow, Norse Peak Wilderness, Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Photo credit-Robin Shoal, USFS