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New reference material online • 20040203-Technology.pdfBattelle - Technology Forecasts.htmBattelle - Technology Forecasts_filesNASAsolutions NASA, Marshall Space Flight Center Technology Transfer Program.htmNASAsolutions NASA, Marshall Space Flight Center Technology Transfer Program_filesNIST Advanced Technology Program.htmNIST Advanced Technology Program_filesUSAforesight.pdf • A Guidebook for Technology Assessment and Impact Analysis: coursepak at Alpha Graphics. $3.64
Technology Assessment • The best way to have a good idea is to have lots of ideas • Linus Pauling, Nobel Laureate
Assessment defined • A formal, objective evaluation of the commercial potential of a piece of intellectual property.
Why perform assessments • Understand the competitive advantage your technology offers • Determine if the advantage is protectable and sustainable • Identify market applications and prospective licensees • Identify barriers to market entry
Technology Description • Current state of the art • Operational capacity, gaps, deficiencies • Antecedent technologies • Influencing factors • Related technologies • Future state of the art • Uses and applications
Technology Description • Physical and functional description • Measure functional capabilities • Scientific disciplines involved • Importance of stakeholders • Capital investment • Input and output products • Design dimension data • Manufacturing characteristics
Impact of Technology • Widely adopted • Social consequences • Future conditions require creation of new technological capabilities
Levels of emergence and impact of technology • Emergence • Knowledge of scientific understanding acquired • Technical capability demonstrated in lab • Full scale prototype • Operational use or commercial introduction
Four assessment dimensions • Technology v. problem • New technology v. problem solutions • Physical v. social • Technical and economic feasibility v. political and social feasibility • Existing v. emerging • Understood v. uncertainty • Major v. minor • Major or minor changes in social or institutional arrangements
Techniques of technology forecasting • single trend extrapolation • Substitution analysis • Scenario development • The delphi method • Cross impact analysis • Morphological evaluation • Limitations of forecasting accuracy
IP Valuation • Determine commercial value of IP • Addressable market size • Strength of need • Strength of technical advantage
Venture creation • Business model • Market analysis • Strategic analysis • Operational analysis • Strategy development • Financial planning
Business school model • Recruit technology • Assess technology • Analyze market • Develop business plan • Recruit management • Seed funding • launch
Technology opportunities • http://www.nttc.edu/techmart/search.asp • Biotechnology: • http://www.nttc.edu/techmart/category.asp • Communications • http://www.nttc.edu/techmart/category.asp • Aerodynamics • http://www.nttc.edu/techmart/category.asp
Ctc: http://www.ctc.org • Brookhaven • http://www.bnl.gov/techxfer/tech_briefs/new_licensing_opportunities.html /
Strategic Visioning • Environmental scanning of emerging issues • Description; source; comments • Bisociation of emerging issues • Challenges and Opportunities • New ideas • Scenario development • Impact analysis