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Dr. Robert Eisenstadt University of Louisiana-Monroe Dr. John Francis Louisiana Tech University

Economic Forecast for Northeast Louisiana Presented to the Business Outlook Summit Monroe, Louisiana March 29, 2007. Dr. Robert Eisenstadt University of Louisiana-Monroe Dr. John Francis Louisiana Tech University. The measured labor force in NE Louisiana has fallen:. 2005-2006 change

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Dr. Robert Eisenstadt University of Louisiana-Monroe Dr. John Francis Louisiana Tech University

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  1. Economic Forecastfor Northeast LouisianaPresented to the Business Outlook SummitMonroe, LouisianaMarch 29, 2007 Dr. Robert Eisenstadt University of Louisiana-Monroe Dr. John Francis Louisiana Tech University

  2. The measured labor force in NE Louisiana has fallen: 2005-2006 change in labor force = -5.6% in employment = -2.0%

  3. Unemployment, however, is not the issue it used to be….. (figures from July 2006 household survey, not seasonally adjusted)

  4. Employment gains and losses (establishment survey)

  5. Data from the 2005-2 Job Vacancy Survey for NE Louisiana: What a difference a year makes.

  6. From the 2005 (quarter 2) Job Vacancy Survey www.laworks.net In trying to fill this position what is the greatest difficulty you have faced? Unable to find qualified applicants = 20.7% Shortage of people in occupational category = 11.0% Not enough applications submitted = 14.6% Applicants will not work for offered compensation = 8.5% Applicant cannot pass drug or background check = 7.3% No difficulty at all = 8.5%

  7. Skill Composition of NE Louisiana Labor Force

  8. Comparison of Skills with State and National Levels

  9. Composition of Labor Force

  10. Rankings of Proportion of State Labor Force without a High School Diploma

  11. Ranking of Proportion of State Labor Force with Some Training Beyond High School

  12. Labor Force Participation Rate • Louisiana – 71.3% • Ark-LA-Miss – 73.7% • United States – 78.3% • LA is well below the national average

  13. Ranking of State Labor Force Participation Rates

  14. Labor Force Participation Rates by Education Groups

  15. Wage Inequality • Why Does Wage Inequality Matter? • Equity • Some evidence that it reduces overall consumption and economic growth

  16. 90-10 Wage Ratios

  17. 90-50 Wage Ratios

  18. Distribution of Weekly Wages

  19. Post-Katrinagains in retail sales are strong: 2004-05: 4.7% increase 2005-06: 9.9% increase 2004-05: 1.3% increase 2005-06: 6.5% increase

  20. 2005-06 change=18.8% 2005-06 change=15.0% 2004 Per capita personal income Ouachita: $26,595 Lincoln: $23,003

  21. Year over year percentage (3-month running average) change in estimated retail sales for Ouachita Parish

  22. Car, van and light truck sales are quite stable and show some gains

  23. 2006 permits for construction projects are well ahead of 2005 levels in both number, square footage, and real estimated value.

  24. Existing home sales (all homes > $50,000) Homes sold are for Ouachita and contiguous parishes. NE LA Board of Realtors. (constant 2006 $.)

  25. Existing Home Sales: Closing price > $200,000

  26. Home sales: closing price $50k - $200k

  27. Ouachita and Lincoln Parishes gain population in 2006 Ouachita = +1,551; Lincoln=+539

  28. Thank God for Babies……………. 27,262 babies (8.8% of 2000 population) were born in NE Louisiana between 2000 and 2005.

  29. Looking ahead to 2008…

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