Professor Nigel Brandon Shell Chair Sustainable Development in Energy EPSRC Energy Senior Research Fellow Executive Dire

1. Energy Drivers for Emissions Professor Nigel Brandon Shell Chair Sustainable Development in EnergyEPSRC Energy Senior Research Fellow Executive Director Energy Futures Lab GO science Focal Point in Energy with China www.imperial.ac.uk/energyfutureslab

2. Introduction • Energy Futures Lab • Global Energy Drivers and Trends. • Energy in the UK. • Conclusions.

3. The Energy Futures Lab • Established in 2005 to promote and stimulate multi-disciplinary research in energy at Imperial College. The EFL integrates across science, engineering, policy and business in the energy sector. • Imperial College has a research budget of £30M pa for energy research, one third from industry. We have around 370 energy projects and 600 research staff and students undertaking energy research. Integrating Themes • Energy systems engineering • Policy • Environmental studies • Sustainability analysis • Economics • Energy in society Energy Technologies • Fuel cells and hydrogen • Bioenergy • Solar • Carbon capture and storage • Oil and gas • Transmission and distribution • Transport • Nuclear fission and fusion • Combustion science and engineering www.imperial.ac.uk/energyfutureslab

4. Global Energy Drivers: 1 – Population Growth World Population prospects: the 2006 revision, UN Dept. Economics and Social Affairs

5. Global Energy Drivers: 2 – Energy Security • Rising Oil Prices. • Shift in power from energy consumers to energy producers. • Link between energy, water and food. • 400 million people in India have no access to electricity.

6. UK Energy Trade and consumption Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.

7. PROJECTED EUROPEAN GAS BALANCE Source: IEA

8. Global Energy Drivers: 3 – Urbanisation Population (billion) Source: ARUP

9. Growth in Global Energy Demand Source: RCEP (2000)

10. Global Energy Impact: CO2 emissions Source: DTI (2002).Energy: its impact on the environment and society.

11. Global Energy Impact: 2 – Pollution Guangzhou, China, March 2008, ~15.00

12. Acid Rain in China More than 80 percent of Chinese cities in a recent World Bank survey had sulfur dioxide or nitrogen dioxide emissions above the World Health Organization's threshold. • In 2006, 283 out of 524 cities recorded acid rain: • 198 cities at 25% • 87 cities at 75% • 6 cities at 100% Acid rain: pH <5.6 Air Quality Report for 2006, Ministry of Environmental Protection of P. R. China, http://www.sepa.gov.cn/

13. Energy consumption in China is accelerating Hydro, nuclear wind, biomass Gas Oil Coal The increase in China’s energy demand from 2002-05 equates to Japan’s annual energy use. 105 GW of (mostly) coal fired power plant were built in 2006 (total UK capacity ~80GW). China Statistical Yearbook 2007, National Bureau of Statistics of China, http://www.stats.gov.cn/

14. Incremental increase in energy demand and energy related CO2 emissions 2000-2006. World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights, International Energy Agency

15. China’s energy consumption per capita is low toe per capita World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights, International Energy Agency

16. A. Pasternak, Global Energy Futures and Human Development: A Framework for Analysis, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory rep. no. UCRL-ID-140773 (October 2000). Human development and energy use A. Pasternak, Global Energy Futures and Human Development: A Framework for Analysis, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory rep. no. UCRL-ID-140773 (2000).

17. Rising Transport Demand in China Car ownership in China was 24 cars for every 1000 citizens in 2006, and will increase to 40 cars for every 1000 citizens by 2010. By contrast, the US has 765 vehicles per 1000 (2002 data), while Europe has an average of about 300 vehicles per 1000. China is already the third-largest car market in the world. The National Development and Reform Commission predicted that 55 million vehicles will be running on China’s roads by 2010. This number will increase to 370 million by 2030. Source: Green Car Congress, http://www.greencarcongress.com/2006/05/percapita_car_o.html Oil Demand Domestic production Transportation accounts for 40% of annual oil consumption now and is increasing sharply. Source: Tsinghua-BP Clean Energy Centre

18. Global energy demand continues to rise IEA World Energy Outlook

19. Major investment in new energy infrastructure $22 Trillion of investment in energy infrastructure is needed out to 2030 to meet demand. Cumulative Investment in Energy Infrastructure 2006-2030 World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights, International Energy Agency

20. UK: Share of fuels contributing to primary energy supply Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.

21. The size of the challenge: a potential scenario to reach 15% renewable energy by 2020 in the UK Source: BERR UK Renewable energy strategy consultation, June (2008).

22. UK: Energy consumption by sector Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.

23. UK: Energy consumption by transport type Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.

24. UK: Average new car CO2 emissions and Car use per person Source: Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency; Department for Transport

25. UK: Domestic energy consumption • Source: Derived from BREHOMES, taken from the Domestic Energy Fact File. Building Research Establishment

26. UK: Ownership of central heating Source: GfK Home Audit from the Domestic Energy Fact File, Building Research Establishment.

27. UK: Carbon dioxide emissions on an IPCC basis and measurements towards targets Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.

28. UK: Sulphur dioxide emissions by sector Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.

29. Examples of Energy Technology Development at Imperial College: Fuel Cells, Bioenergy and Solar • Solar Programme • Photosynthesis, photochemistry, organic and nano-materials, device physics. • Bioenergy Programme • Plant biology, microbiology, biotechnology and systems process engineering. • Targetting low cost organic solar cells - Tomorrows PV. • A vision for direct solar production of hydrogen and other fuels – Artificial Leaf. • Translated into a low CO2, low energy technique to produce biofuel naturally. • Fuel Cell Programme • Basic materials and device research • CeresPower spun out in 2001; now with 70 employees and partnership with British Gas to create domestic fuel cell CHP • Units will reduce household CO2 emissions by 20%

30. Grantham Institute for Climate Change PLANET 2050 Programme for Low And Negative Emission Technologies for 2050 PLANET 2050 will explore how to deliver 80% cuts in net CO2 emissions and beyond quickly and without excessive costs through exploiting advanced technology and an integrated system approach. ELECTRIC FUTURES LOW CARBON ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ALL- ELECTRIC BUILDINGS ELECTRIC MOBILITY PLANET 2050 CO2 FROM THE AIR BIOMASS BIOFUELS LOW CARBON PRODUCTION HYDROGEN ECONOMY

31. Conclusions • In the near term we need to rapidly deploy the technologies we have available today, both for energy demand reduction and for energy generation. But we will need to develop new technologies, behaviours and business models to meet our 2050 targets. • We must explore a wide range of options – for example the large-scale use of low-carbon electricity could help achieve the 80% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050. But the scientific and engineering challenges associated with this are significant. • To develop breakthrough technologies we need to support energy R&D&D – noting that public funding for energy research has more than halved globally in real terms since 1980. • We need to understand how to manage the transition in our energy economy – at Imperial we will explore this through our new ‘Planet 2050’ programme. • Many areas of the energy sector are short of critical skills – Universities have an important role to play in attracting, educating and retaining the very best young scientists and engineers to the energy sector.

32. Thank you n.brandon@imperial.ac.uk www.imperial.ac.uk/energyfutureslab