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Strategy: SNG / Tournaments. Odds and Outs – How to play Draws. Introduction. Draws = incomplete hands that still need a community card. Outs All cards that could improve your hand. Odds Probability that one of your outs will be dealt as a community card. Pot Odds
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Strategy: SNG / Tournaments Odds and Outs – How to play Draws
Introduction • Draws = incomplete hands that still need a community card • Outs • All cards that could improve your hand. • Odds • Probability that one of your outs will be dealt as a community card. • Pot Odds • Ration of possible profit to bet you need to call • Risk – Reward Ratio • Fold equity • Chance that the opponent will fold after your bet • Playing your draws in the different stages of the tournament
Outs – what cards will help you? • Example A OESD Both an ace and a 6 would complete your draw. • Your Outs • Example B Monster Draw Every ace, 6 and all remaining hearts would give you a monster here. • Your Outs
Other Examples • Flush draw • 9 Outs • OESD • 8 Outs • Two Overcards • 6 Outs • A Pair • Chance of getting a 3oak or two pairs • 5 Outs • Gutshot • 4 Outs
Odds • Odds – What is the probability of completing my draws? • Your Outs • Calculation • 52 – 5 = 47 cards left in deck • 8 cards are helpful (outs) • 47 – 8 = 39 cards are not helpful • Odds: 39 : 8 -> approx. 5:1 • Flop/river odds: 2:1 • Typical Draws and their Odds • Gutshot 11:1 5:1 • OESD 5:1 2:1 • Flush draw 4:1 2:1 • 2 Overcards 7:1 3:1 • Flush draw + OESD: 2:1 1:1
Pot Odds • Pot odds – Can I play my hand profitably? • Calculation • Pot before opponent’s bet: $100 • Opponent’s bet: $20 • Possible profit for you: $120 • If you invest $20 • Pot odds: 120 : 20 (6 : 1) • Odds on turn: 5:1 • Here: Call! • Pot odds better than odds of incomplete hand – profit • Pot odds worse than odds of incomplete hand – loss • Special characteristic of tournament – buying more chips not possible
Playing draws in the early stage of the tournament • Number of opponents • The more opponents, the more defensive • Position • “Out of position” defensive play preferred • Strategy for the turn • Fold equity • Especially in very early stage and rarely present with low buy-ins • Pot size • Smaller in early stage of tournament- not worth showing aggression
Playing draws in the early stage of the tournament • Your Odds • Correct Odds – Calling bet possible • Pay attention to stack size • Your Outs • The more outs, the better the opportunity to call • Tip • Don’t take too big a risk • Bet on free cards
Playing draws in the middle stage of the tournament • Fold equity • Decisive relevance of fold equity • Observe action before you • Pot size • Pot size often leads to folding or all-In • Your Outs • The more outs, the more aggressive the style of play • Number of opponents • The more opponents, the more chips in pot - increase aggression • Reads on opponents • Better estimation of fold equity • Tip • Increase aggression depending on pot size
Playing draws in the late stage of the tournament • Your Outs • The more outs, the greater the opportunity to go all-In • Fold equity • Smaller stacks – less fold equity • Your Odds • Little relevance, as usually in push/fold mode • Correct odds are rarely present • Pot size • Size usually sufficient for a direct all-in • Who has taken the initiative? • Initiative + strong draw = all-In • No initiative + opponent’s all-in – stronger draw needed • Tip • Hardly any fold equity present • Stack size and opponents’ style of play decisive
Sample Hands • OESD in the early stage of the tournament • Preflop • UTG calls 20, 2 folds, MP2 calls 20, 3 folds, Hero completes, BB checks • Flop (Pot 80) • Hero checks • BB checks • UTG bets 60 • MP2 calls 60 • Hero calls 60 • Stack size • BU 1500 • Hero 1500 • BB 1500 • UTG 1500 • UTG+1 1500 • MP 1 1500 • MP 2 1500 • MP 3 1500 • CO 1500
Sample Hands • Flush draw in the early stage of the tournament • Preflop • 1 fold, Hero raises to 90, 4 folds, BB calls 60 • Flop (Pot 195) • BB checks • Hero bets 120 • BB raises to 1340 (All-in) • Hero folds • Stack size • MP 2 1740 • CO 5705 • BU 1340 • SB 345 • BB 1430 • UTG 1470 • Hero 1470
Sample Hands • Monster draw in the middle stage of the tournament • Preflop • UTG folds, CO raises to 200, Button calls 200, SB calls 150, Hero calls 100 • Flop (Pot 800) • SB checks • Hero bets 200 • CO raises to 2080 (All-in) • Button folds • SB folds • Hero ? • Stack size • UTG 1730 • CO 2280 • BU 2728 • SB 10952 • Hero 2310
Sample Hands • OESD in the middle stage of the tournament • Preflop • UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls 200, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls 100, Hero checks • Flop (Pot 600) • SB bets 300 • Hero raises to 1690 (All-in) • Stack size • UTG 680 • UTG+1 2579 • MP 1 1739 • MP 2 2196 • CO 3403 • BU 1740 • SB 5773 • Hero 1890
Sample Hands • Flush draw in the late stage of the tournament • Preflop • CO folds, Button calls 200, SB calls 100, Hero checks • Flop (Pot 600) • SB checks • Hero bets 400 • Button raises to 800 • SB folds • Hero? • Stack size • CO 2355 • BU 5030 • SB 3205 • Hero 2910
Conclusion • Odds • Ratio helpful cards : non-helpful cards • Pot Odds • Ratio possible profit : bet • Playing profitably • Pot odds better than odds • Being aware of the special characteristic of tournaments • Buying more chips not possible • Protect your chips, keep risk low Good Luck!
