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Indigenous demography and related information - issues and trends

Topics that will be covered. Changes over time in Indigenous populationCensus countsThe drivers of changeEstimated resident populationsABS Experimental population projectionsLow and high projectionsUsing Indigenous demographic data for denominatorsUnder-enumeration at a small area levelAlternative sources of data (the Cape Justice Study)Indigenous Identifiers on statistical collections and alternative analytical approaches.

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Indigenous demography and related information - issues and trends

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    1. Indigenous demography and related information - issues and trends Bryan Kennedy (Principal Statistician) Office of Economic and Statistical Research

    2. Topics that will be covered Changes over time in Indigenous population Census counts The drivers of change Estimated resident populations ABS Experimental population projections Low and high projections Using Indigenous demographic data for denominators Under-enumeration at a small area level Alternative sources of data (the Cape Justice Study) Indigenous Identifiers on statistical collections and alternative analytical approaches

    3. Who is an Indigenous Person? - Current Definition Of Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander descent Who identifies as an Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander Is accepted as such by the community in which he/she lives Which element(s) does the 1996 and 2001Census question cover? This is the official ABS definition and one that is used commonly across administrative collections In reality the only question that is usually asked is: “Are you of Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander origin?” No Yes, Aboriginal Yes, Torres Strait IslanderThis is the official ABS definition and one that is used commonly across administrative collections In reality the only question that is usually asked is: “Are you of Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander origin?” No Yes, Aboriginal Yes, Torres Strait Islander

    4. ABS Experimental Indigenous ERP June 1996

    5. Intercensal Change in Census Counts, Australia (%)

    6. Percentage share of Indigenous population by state 1966 & 1996 The percentage share of each states population has changed markedly over the last thirty years. NSW - the big gain NT - WA the losers Qld small gainThe percentage share of each states population has changed markedly over the last thirty years. NSW - the big gain NT - WA the losers Qld small gain

    7. Increase in Indigenous Census Counts,1991-96(%) Between 1991 and 1996 33 per cent increase in Indigenous Census counts for Australia as a whole Huge variation across States in changes Qld close to Australian average - Between 1991 and 1996 33 per cent increase in Indigenous Census counts for Australia as a whole Huge variation across States in changes Qld close to Australian average -

    8. Queensland intercensal population change (%) by Indigenous status This graph shows the increases in levels of identification are not smooth with particularly large increase between 1981 and 1986 and 1991 and 1996. This creates a real problem when undertaking population based analysis. If for example if you are analysing 1993 data - Do you use 1991 or 1996 population estimates - or, an average of the both. You can imagine the large variation in the result depending on what denominator is used.This graph shows the increases in levels of identification are not smooth with particularly large increase between 1981 and 1986 and 1991 and 1996. This creates a real problem when undertaking population based analysis. If for example if you are analysing 1993 data - Do you use 1991 or 1996 population estimates - or, an average of the both. You can imagine the large variation in the result depending on what denominator is used.

    9. ABS Population & Housing Census, percentage increase in numbers identifying as Indigenous from 1991 to 1996 It gets worse As the graph shows there is a huge variation within Queensland with urban areas (although not always) showing a much larger increase in identification. If you are attempting to measure changes in regional variation in Indigenous health status across geographical areas what denominator do you use?It gets worse As the graph shows there is a huge variation within Queensland with urban areas (although not always) showing a much larger increase in identification. If you are attempting to measure changes in regional variation in Indigenous health status across geographical areas what denominator do you use?

    10. Changing Propensity to Identity as Indigenous 33% increase in census counts just over half can be explained by births and deaths migration changes in transmission rate census edits most of the remaining increase changes in propensity to identify as Indigenous

    11. Annual Propensity to Identity, 1991-1996 (%) This graph shows ABS’s estimate of annual percentage change as a result of just increasing propensity to identify as Indigenous once fertility, deaths, migration and differences in transmission rates have been taken into account. Large variation across StatesThis graph shows ABS’s estimate of annual percentage change as a result of just increasing propensity to identify as Indigenous once fertility, deaths, migration and differences in transmission rates have been taken into account. Large variation across States

    12. What is a transmission rate?

    13. Transmission rates: Percentage of Indigenous births to Indigenous and non-Indigenous mothers, 1999

    14. Comparing statistics based on two censuses Take extra care should not be accepted at face value differences may be largely due to non-demographic increase in census counts although this varies greatly at a small area level

    15. Estimating population What is a population estimate? What does an estimate add over a Census count? Timeliness Usual Residence concept (including residents overseas on census night) Undercount adjustment Other demographic adjustments eg persons aged < 1

    16. Estimates at census date census counts, usual residence both parents born overseas non-response to the census question net census under-count under-reporting of infants

    17. Estimating population

    18. ABS Indigenous population projections Queensland

    19. Percentage difference between ABS projected low and high Indigenous population series at 2006

    20. Queensland Indigenous population ABS census counts 1976 to 1996 In defining denominators population health researchers are dependent almost totally on population estimates derived from ABS Census counts. While levels of identification have improved over the years on the numerator side, there has also been a large increase in Indigenous people to identify as Indigenous on the denominator side. As the graph shows, there has been a huge increase since 1976 to 1996. We await with interest what the 2001 Census figures produceIn defining denominators population health researchers are dependent almost totally on population estimates derived from ABS Census counts. While levels of identification have improved over the years on the numerator side, there has also been a large increase in Indigenous people to identify as Indigenous on the denominator side. As the graph shows, there has been a huge increase since 1976 to 1996. We await with interest what the 2001 Census figures produce

    21. ABS Population & Housing Census, percentage share by age group 1996 This graph shows the variation in the proportional age groups between Indigenous and non-indigenous populations by Commonwealth Health planning regions. As you can see there is very little variation in the age structure within the indigenous population. Moreover, this proportional structure does not change between Censuses. That is the large proportional increase in Indigenous people identifying has been in all ages.This graph shows the variation in the proportional age groups between Indigenous and non-indigenous populations by Commonwealth Health planning regions. As you can see there is very little variation in the age structure within the indigenous population. Moreover, this proportional structure does not change between Censuses. That is the large proportional increase in Indigenous people identifying has been in all ages.

    22. Population and mortality percentage distribution Queensland 1999

    23. Indigenous demographic data availability Census data - every 5 years by place of enumeration or place of usual residence small area level by age and sex urban centre locality SLA & LGA - small cells will be randomised Estimated Resident Populations Statewide level only by age and sex ABS Experimental projections Statewide level only by age and sex Low and high series available

    24. Using Census Data - - - Rates and ratios calculation need accurate population uncertainties about Indigenous population additional errors in rates and ratios if numerators and denominators are different sources of different quality collection method is different rates of Indigenous identification are different

    25. Indigenous under-identification in collections- major issues Completeness of identification may vary greatly: across years across statistical collections across geographical areas Inconsistency between numerators and denominators in the individual’s propensity to identify and related problems of analysis

    26. Measuring trends Numerator /denominator = Rate Increase in denominator reduces rate Increase in numerator increases rate Numerator and/or denominator may increase/decrease due to propensity to identify rather than any real change - may affect trends significantly Conclusion - difficult to accurately assess real trends in rates in Indigenous population

    27. Indigenous deaths Queensland 1996 to 2000

    28. Indigenous crude death rates Qld 1996-2000, using ABS low experimental population estimates

    29. Indigenous crude death rates Qld 1996-2000, using ABS low and high series experimental population estimates

    30. Annual % change in Indigenous crude death rates Qld 1997-2000, using ABS low and high series experimental population estimates

    31. Median age at death, Australia

    32. Indigenous median age at death, Qld and Aus

    33. Suicide Rates

    34. Suicide in Qld and in SLAs with increasing proportions of Indigenous persons 1994-1998

    35. Number of suicides 1992-1998 for selected Aboriginal Communities

    36. Census undercounts in remote Indigenous communities - the great debate - (ABS versus the rest) Initial analysis undertaken by Queensland Health Comparison of Centrelink benefit recipient data with Census counts Other data sources comparison - the case of Palm Islands Cape Justice Study Using alternative sources of data

    37. Comparison of number of Centrelink beneficiaries Oct. 1998 with ABS Census counts - August 1996 for persons aged 20 & over The problem of under-enumeration Some work we have undertaken in reference to remote Indigenous communities where Indigenous identification in both the numerator and denominator is almost complete has raised another significant problem, the problem of under-enumeration. Leaders and health workers in those communities have for a considerable time questioned the accuracy of Census counts in those communities. Using other available sources of data such as health records and Centrelink data we think that a significant number of people in these communities are not counted at all. The graph shows the percentage variation in the number of individual Centrelink beneficiaries over the age of 20 compared to Census counts. The problem of under-enumeration Some work we have undertaken in reference to remote Indigenous communities where Indigenous identification in both the numerator and denominator is almost complete has raised another significant problem, the problem of under-enumeration. Leaders and health workers in those communities have for a considerable time questioned the accuracy of Census counts in those communities. Using other available sources of data such as health records and Centrelink data we think that a significant number of people in these communities are not counted at all. The graph shows the percentage variation in the number of individual Centrelink beneficiaries over the age of 20 compared to Census counts.

    38. The case of Palm Islands 1996 ABS Census Counts - 1996 people Community estimates - 3,000 to 3,500 In 1998 - 2,600 individuals accessed health services in 6 month period More children 10-14 enrolled in schools than counted in Census 1998 Centrelink data - 1,923 individuals aged 20 & over receiving a benefit compared to ABS Census count of 1,116 Queensland Health estimate - approximately 3,200 We chose Palm Islands Aboriginal community and looked in some detail at alternative sources of data As you can see all other sources suggest a significant level of under-enumeration. Why? - Census is Household based - not an appropriate model in these remote communities. Fear of retribution - may identify individual households with more than the allowed number of persons.We chose Palm Islands Aboriginal community and looked in some detail at alternative sources of data As you can see all other sources suggest a significant level of under-enumeration. Why? - Census is Household based - not an appropriate model in these remote communities. Fear of retribution - may identify individual households with more than the allowed number of persons.

    39. Estimating Cape Community populations (Martin Bell & John Taylor, 2001) Perinatal data (0-1 age group) Education Qld School enrolment data (6-11) year olds Qld Health, well persons health check - selected communities only (13 years and over) Centrelink data (20 years and over) - used as check only but not in calculation

    41. Possible reasons for the Census under-count Mobility of Indigenous population at a local level Seasonal variation Outstations Suspicion of potential inappropriate use of Census data (eg housing allocation) Notion of household as an inappropriate social construct

    42. Conclusions and lessons Indigenous under-identification in population and data collections will be an ongoing problem With increasing transmission rates, variation in the propensity to identify across collections and time is likely to increase View official population statistics critically - especially if used at a small area level Cross check if possible with other sources

    44. Background to the Cape York Justice Inquiry Terms of reference Identify cause, nature and breaches of law Causes and nature of substance abuse Identify relationships between the above Impact on the communities of the above Identify and produce strategies to address the identified problems

    45. Background to the Cape York Justice Inquiry Types of information requested Background demographic information (estimating the Cape Indigenous population) Crime and Justice Information Health Information related to injury and excessive alcohol consumption

    47. Hospital Injury Separation Rate Ratios (Queensland = 1)

    48. Admissions to Hospital for selected external causes by day of week

    49. Admissions to Hospital for selected external causes by day of week

    50. Average community - number of offences by day of the week

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