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Systems Analysis

Systems analysis , Out- scalling and Communication Moderateur : M. El Mourid Rapporteurs: R. Mrabet & H. Boulal. CRP1.1: Dryland Systems: Integrated Agricultural Production Systems for the Poor and Vulnerable in Dry Areas  Regional Inception Workshop for North Africa & West Asia

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Systems Analysis

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  1. Systems analysis, Out-scalling and CommunicationModerateur: M. El MouridRapporteurs: R. Mrabet & H. Boulal CRP1.1: Dryland Systems: Integrated Agricultural Production Systems for the Poor and Vulnerable in Dry Areas  Regional Inception Workshop for North Africa & West Asia  July 2-4, 2012 - Golden Tulip Farah Hotel-Rabat, Morocco.

  2. Systems Analysis • Presentation of Modeling approaches by Withbread et al. • Concepts & parameters • Farming systems & FRS • Systems: from reality to modeling

  3. Regional model Prices Aggregated Indicators (Region, Vulnerable Zone) Socio-economic context: GDP, price,…. Farm typology Simple indicators Farm model Economic and policy data Policy/environnemental measures: WFW, prime…. FADN, survey, MARS… AM data base: by activity and Farm type Agromanagement data Production, Externalities Agro-management cropping system/AEnZ Crop model Technological innovation: no till, new rotations…. Modelling chain to assess farm decision and impacts Market Region Farm type Field (soil type)

  4. Discussion • Several model exampleswerediscussed: Tadla in terms of water allocation and Egypt in terms of large scale irrigation management • Information sharing and exchange amongpartnersinvolved in system modeling • Stress (CC, Biotic, human …) shouldbeintegrated in modelingapproach • Sensitivityanalysis to price changes atregionalscales. • Levelintegration: ad-hoc vs full

  5. Discussion • How to integrate social, human, cultural and institutional parameters in modeling analysis: parameter estimation or indirect integration of indicator • Lack of livestock models • Multi-agent models vs conceptual framework • Model should express system’s performances improvement for CRP1.1. (FS, PA, ES, SE)

  6. Discussion: how modelingcan help in CRP1.1? • Need to improve models • Risk management • Differentiate rainfed from irrigated systems. • Models should anticipate and prostect on indicators

  7. Outscalling • Full characterisation of sites • Similaritymapping (Hot spot approach) • Suitabilitymapping for technology • Typologydevelopment (improveddetailledfarming system mapping) • Modelingapproachshould help in outscalling • Improve data collection: biophysical, economic, social, human, policy and institutionalparameters • Groundproofing and validation • Capacity building • Data management and standardization

  8. Communication • Within Innovation platform (framework) • Upscalling • Analysis of contexts and expectation • Participatoryapproach • Divers stakeholders, partners, advisorycouncil, NARS, university, Farmers, Privatesector.. • Communication tools: media … • Amongfarmers: FFS, fielddays .. • Instrumental upcalling/outscalling: stakeholders and policymakers. • Communication withother CRPs. • Communication dymanic: quality, targeted, information/data sharing.

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