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Preliminary Estimates of Effect of Protocols on Radiative Forcing Rachel Warren and Helen ApSimon, Imperial College, UK

Preliminary Estimates of Effect of Protocols on Radiative Forcing Rachel Warren and Helen ApSimon, Imperial College, UK. Radiative forcing by some types of anthropogenic aerosols can significantly offset greenhouse forcing, both ‘directly’ and ‘indirectly’

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Preliminary Estimates of Effect of Protocols on Radiative Forcing Rachel Warren and Helen ApSimon, Imperial College, UK

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  1. Preliminary Estimates of Effect of Protocols on Radiative ForcingRachel Warren and Helen ApSimon, Imperial College, UK • Radiative forcing by some types of anthropogenic aerosols can significantly offset greenhouse forcing, both ‘directly’ and ‘indirectly’ • Following the formula of Charlson et al. (1992) for the direct effect, preliminary estimates of the influence of Oslo and Gothenburg protocols, via reductions in the secondary aerosols (NH4)2SO4 and NH4NO3 made • Between 1990 and 2010 the aerosol offset to greenhouse forcing over Europe fell from an estimated 0.9 to 0.3 W/m2 under the Gothenburg protocol, mostly due to changes in SO4. Compares with global greenhouse forcing of 2.5 W/m2 (IPCC) in early 1990s. • NO3 contribution small but rising • However measures used to implement Gothenburg significantly reduce CO2 (especially fuel switching)

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