Gray Wolf Range Analysis: Michigan and Wisconsin

1. Gray Wolf Range Analysis: Michigan and Wisconsin Masters Project Presentation November 8, 2002 Damon Hearne, Karen Lewis, Marisa Martin, Beth Mitton, Carly Rocklen

2. Background Client: National Wildlife Federation Great Lakes Field Office, Ann Arbor Advisors: Steve Yaffee and Bobbi Low • Gray wolf federally listed as Endangered in 1974 • Down-listing to Threatened underway • Complete delisting imminent Is additional long-term wolf range protection necessary if permanent recovery is to be successful?

3. 1974 Current Historic Wolves are top carnivores without specific habitat requirements.

4. Population Status • Michigan: ~280/200 (5 years) • Wisconsin: ~300/250 (1 year)

5. Applied Definitions Range: Regionally specific areas of land that can function as gray wolf territory Should not be confused with distribution:

6. Project Overview Is additional long-term wolf range protection necessary if permanent recovery is to be successful? Spatial Analysis Model Sufficient range conserved Insufficient range conserved Question: How can range for a long-term viable wolf population be ensured? Future studies show insufficient range Recommendations

7. Establish Factors Affecting Conversion of range (FACs) Use FACs to predict Probability Of Conversion (POC) Suitability filter Determine number of wolf packs supported Spatial Analysis Model Components Goal: To predict future wolf range and population size. Phase A Phase B

8. Urban pixel filter Spatial Analysis Phase A Probability of Conversion (POC) ( -2, -1, 0, 1, 2 ) Primary Factors Affecting Conversion (FAC) Weighting Private = 2 Stability Nat Park =-2 High = 2 Conversion Rate in Region Low = - 2 Yes = 2 Zoned for Development No = - 2 Physiography conducive to conversion Yes = 2 No = - 2 Develop = 2 Agriculture Revert =-2

9. Factor Affecting Conversion:Stability as Undeveloped • Ownership • Legal protection • Federal—Forest Legacy Program • State—conservation easements; forest tax incentives

10. Factor Affecting Conversion:Growth Rate in Region • Land Use Change Analysis • LUDA 1980 • NLCD 1992 • Regional Planner Predictions • Population Change • Development Attractors Urban Center Lake Highway/major roads

11. Factor Affecting Conversion:Agricultural Reversion • Occurs at varying rates depending on economic status and primary land use of county • Land use change • Difficult to build into current model because it is reverse conversion

12. Factor Affecting Conversion:Zoning • Home rule—land use planning at the lowest level of government in Wisconsin and Michigan • Town comprehensive plans—Smart Growth (Wisconsin) • Buildout analysis

13. Factor Affecting Conversion:Physiography Conducive to Conversion • Presence of wetland • Federal, state and local protection • Wetlands as building sites • Soils – percolation test

14. Spatial Analysis Phase B Overlay FAC Layers Sum values across layers using weighting and BOOLEAN operations Each pixel has Probability of Conversion #

15. Spatial Analysis County- wide zoning = # High conversion rate = # Federal Lands = # Medium POC Low POC High POC

16. Results from POC phase High POC filter Viability proxies: Road Density and others Suitable range area # potential territories supported in future Spatial Analysis - Suitability Filter

17. Road Density Used to determine areas suitable for wolves (~ <.5km/km2) Proxy for wolf-human interactions • Frequency of interactions • Outcome of interactions • Improved human attitudes towards wolves may allow survival in areas of higher road density

18. Results from POC phase High POC filter Viability proxies: Road Density and others Suitable range area # potential territories supported in future Spatial Analysis - Suitability Filter

19. Number of Wolves Supported by Suitable Range Area Determine average territory size given prey density Number of potential territories (= packs) supported by Suitable Range Area Number of wolves supported by Suitable Range Area Viable Population Yes No

20. Less Pressure Less Conversion of Land More Pressure More Conversion of Land Secondary Drivers Economic Pressures Suitability • Prey Base • Human attitudes/road density

21. Multiple Scenarios of Model Establish Factors Affecting Conversion of range (FACs) Secondary Drivers of Conversion  Multiple scenarios POC Assigned POC Assigned POC Assigned Suitability filter Suitability filter Suitability filter # Wolves # Wolves # Wolves # Wolves # Wolves

22. Project Overview Spatial Analysis Model Sufficient range conserved for long term wolf pop Insufficient range conserved for long term wolf pop Question: How can range for a viable wolf population be ensured? Future studies show insufficient range Recommendations

23. Recommendations – Legal and Policy Legal and policy avenues may leadto protection of wolves and wolf habitat. • Legal • ESA litigation • State statutes • Policy • Access of federal, state and county lands • Zoning changes • Forest Legacy and Smart Growth in Michigan

24. Recommendations – Education Public education regarding wolves leads to greater tolerance of wolves, and thus to higher cultural carrying capacities for the land. • Barriers to information distribution • Education programs • Target audiences

25. Recommendations – Land Conservation Conserved undeveloped lands provide areas of relatively low probability of wolf-human conflict. • Type & quantity of land to conserve • Tools for protection • Integration of land conservation and land use planning • Major players/stakeholders

26. Project Overview Spatial Analysis Model Sufficient range conserved Insufficient range conserved Question: How can range for a viable wolf population be ensured? Future studies show insufficient range Recommendations

27. Thank you very much

28. PRELIMINARY MAP

29. PRELIMINARY MAP