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Exploring or Floundering? The Meaning of Employment and Educational Fluctuations in Emerging Adulthood. Harvey J. Krahn Dept. of Sociology University of Alberta, Canada Centre for Educational Sociology University of Edinburgh April 5, 2012.
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Exploring or Floundering? The Meaning of Employment and Educational Fluctuations in Emerging Adulthood Harvey J. Krahn Dept. of Sociology University of Alberta, Canada Centre for Educational Sociology University of Edinburgh April 5, 2012
Changing School-Work Transitions in Canada (1980 2010) Periodic youth unemployment crises Increasing rates of contingent work – part-time, temporary , seasonal Rising levels of post-secondary educational (PSE) participation Less orderly progress through PSE system Less certain returns to higher education School-work transitions have been prolonged, are less linear, and outcomes are less certain
Changing Youth-Adult Transitions (1980 2010) Young adults remaining at home with parents longer Leaving home and returning Delayed marriage Increased rates of co-habitation Delayed parenthood Youth-adult transitions have been prolonged, and are less linear and predictable
School-work Transition Studies at the University of AlbertaCo-PI: Dr. Graham S. Lowe http://www.arts.ualberta.ca/transition/SWT_Overview.html
SWT+25: Transitions to mid-lifeCo-PI: Dr. Nancy L. Galambos SWT + 25 SWT + 25
Doing Longitudinal Research:a Life Course Perspective 2000s 1980s 1990s
Exploring or Floundering? The Meaning of Employment and Educational Fluctuations in Emerging Adulthood Co-authors: Andrea L. Howard Dept. of Psychology University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Nancy L. Galambos Dept. of Psychology University of Alberta
Exploring or Floundering? School-work and youth-adult transitions have been prolonged, become less linear, and less predictable Disordered role transitions (in and out of jobs, school, parents’ homes, and romantic relationships) Instability in youth and early adulthood is the new norm Focus in this paper on long-term (age 32) effects of employment and educational fluctuations (instability) in early adulthood (age 18 to 25)
Emerging Adulthood: Exploring Jeffrey Arnett uses the concept “emerging adulthood” to describe how 18 to 25 year-olds [18 to 29 year-olds] use this extended transition period to “explore” alternative educational, work, and lifestyle roles “Exploration and instability go hand in hand ….The road is long and winding…but it ends with a reasonable degree of success”
Labour Market Floundering Labour market economists describe frequent movement between jobs and in and out of employment as “churning;” high levels of churning typically seen as evidence of a healthy labour market Economic sociologists tend to interpret such status fluctuations as problematic, as evidence that young people are “floundering” as they seek satisfactory employment; long-term negative employment outcomes predicted
Educational Exploring or Floundering? Exploring and floundering are concepts that could also describe frequent status changes in the post-secondary education system More young adults participating Mixing school and work; taking longer to finish More moving on to advanced studies More dropping out and returning More changing majors, degrees, and institutions
Edmonton School-Work Transition Study High School Sample 1985 – 1999 Rejoined in 1999 1985 N=983 Original sample n=91 n=58 n=13 n=53 1999 N=509 n=215 1985 N=894 Re-contact sample 1986 N=665 1987 N=541 1989 N=504 1992 N=404 n=294
Sample Profile, 1985 - 1999 N = 509 51 % Female 31-32 years old Away from home an average of 9 years 61% living in Edmonton CMA
Employment Outcomes (1999): Age 32 Income Gross monthly $ for all jobs (M = $2949; SD = $1571) Career Satisfaction (3-item index) (How satisfied are you with your career at this point?; My career has worked out the way I hoped it would; This is the kind of job I expected to have at this stage in my life) Occupational Status Pineo-Porter occupational prestige (1 – 16; reverse- coded)
Measuring Employment & Post-secondary Educational Fluctuations during Emerging Adulthood Range 0 – 16 M = 3.69; SD = 3.27 Employment Fluctuations Education Fluctuations Range = 0 – 16 M = 4.99; SD = 3.83
Control Variables Gender (male = 1) Parental Education (SES) (university degree = 1) Educational attainment (university degree = 1) Additional labour market events (1985 – 1999) Completely switched careers (52%) Times unemployed since 1985 (M = 1.26; SD = 1.94) Total non-student jobs since 1985 (M = 4.33; SD = 3.56)
Analytic Logic Model 1: Regress outcome variables on control variables Model 2: Add employment and education fluctuation measures Additional variance explained by Step 2? Do employment and post-secondary fluctuations have significant effects, taking other variables into account? Model 3: Significant interaction effects between fluctuation measures and control variables? Positive or negative effects? Exploring or floundering?
Model 1: Effects of Control Variables on Age 32 Employment Outcomes Gender (Male = 1) 1999 Outcomes UniversityDegree (Yes = 1) .26 .25 Income -.21 R2 = .20 -.12 Ever Switched Careers (Yes = 1) -.14 Career Satisfaction -.17 R2 = .13 Times Unemployed since 1985 .14 .39 -.13 OccupationalStatus Total Jobs since 1985 -.11 R2 = .28 Parent(s)’ Education (1 or more university degrees) .19
Model 3: Effects of Fluctuation Measures, Interaction Effects, and Control Variables on Age 32 Employment Outcomes Income 1999 Gender (Male = 1) R2 =.20 .23 .17 University Degree (Yes = 1) -.18 Career Satisfaction 1999 Ever Switched Careers (Yes = 1) -.14 R2 =.13 .15 Times Unemployed since 1985 .15 Occupational Status 1999 R2 =.28 .36 Total Jobs since 1985 -.18 .27 Parent Education (1 or more university degrees) Employment Fluctuations X Gender Education Fluctuations 1986-1992 Employment Fluctuations 1986-1992 Employment Fluctuations X Career Switches
Summary of Findings Exploring: SWT results support Arnett’s positive perspective with respect to post-secondary education instability; more education fluctuation during emerging adulthood had a positive effect on occupational status at age 32 Floundering:SWT data also show that more employment fluctuation between ages 19 and 25 had a negative effect on income at age 32; in addition, it had a negative effect on occupational status and career satisfaction, but for men only Both: For study participants who had made a complete career change, more employment fluctuation was associated with higher income and more career satisfaction
Explanations Positive effects (exploring) of educational status changes on occupational status. Negative effects (floundering) of labour market status changes on income. … on occupational status and career satisfaction for men. Why not for women? Voluntary or involuntary status changes?
Further Research Voluntary and involuntary status changes SWT+25: Even longer-lasting career effects? Moderating effects of youth-adult transitions? Historical comparative research 1960-70: Exploring both labour market and PSE system 1980-90: Exploring PSE system and floundering in labour market 2000 +: Floundering in both PSE system and labour market?
Acknowledgements Population Research Laboratory, Department of Sociology Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) Alberta Advanced Education, Government of Alberta University of Alberta