Risk assessment is policy

1. Risk assessment is policy Wim Passchier Health Risk Analysis and Toxicology, Maastricht University

2. Risk - case Trans Alaska Pipeline System: Risk is not just the possibility of oil loss

3. 11-09-2001 .. .. .. 12-09-2001 WTC, Pentagon Heightened security Loading operations stopped Korean airliner diverted Loading operations resumed Trans Alaska Pipeline System Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

4. 04-10-2001 .. 05-10-2001 .. .. 06-10-2001 07-10-2001 Helicopter discovers oil leak Pipeline shut down Cause: bullet hole Shooter taken in custody Shooter was drunk 6600 barrels spill 6800 barrels spill Pipeline operating again Trans Alaska Pipeline System Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

5. context Cause-effect sequence cause-effect sequence human action, natural processes changes in material and energy fluxes stressors exposure harm drivers feedback Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

6. Normal operation Human needs Human wants Choice of technology or production process Emissions of materials or energy Diffusion in the environ-ment - ‘exposure’ Effects Damage to health of man and the environ-ment Loss of control Disturbed operation Mobility Products Heating Oil production Extraction Arctic region and pipeline transport Normal: Limited Disturbed: Oil spill Oil spill: Diffusion in soil Oil spill: Ecosystem effects Oil spill: Local loss of diversity and ecosystem functions Pumping failure or loss of integrity Disturbed operation Risk assessment of pipeline transport (but incomplete!) Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

7. Normal operation Human needs Human wants Choice of technology or production process Emissions of materials or energy Diffusion in the environ-ment - ‘exposure’ Effects Damage to health of man and the environ-ment Loss of control Disturbed operation Incompleteness of extendedcause-effect sequence Uncertainties Test measures? Indirect effects Options Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

8. 1000 m3 oil spill Response plan did not work Income loss for State of Alaska M$ 8 Cleanup costs M$ 18 (Feb 2001) 60% recovered (Mar 2002) Cleanup efforts continue No evidence for ecological damage Hydrocarbon concentrations stable as off Feb 2006 Trans Alaska Pipeline System Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

9. Risk: When is uncertain Where is uncertain What is uncertain Characteristics Possibility of harm Varying nature of harm Unexpected Unforeseen Trans Alaska Pipeline SystemLessons Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

10. Risk - case Motorized transport: Accidents, noise and air pollution

11. Mobility Products Heating Individual transport Cars with combus-tion engines Emission of combu-tion products Noise generation Spread of polluted air, inhalation by people Noise exposure Lung disease, cardio-vascular disease, Mortality Annoyance Loss of quality of life Disease Health care costs Loss of life Road accidents Disturbed operation Risk assessment of exposure to emissions from motorized vehicles Normal operation Human needs Human wants Choice of technology or production process Emissions of materials or energy Diffusion in the environ-ment - ‘exposure’ Effects Damage to health of man and the environ-ment Loss of control Disturbed operation Normal operation Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

12. PM10 risk assessment Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

13. Characterizing risk Measures are value laden

14. Measures for characterizing harmful health effects • Selecting measure to characterize risk is value laden • Example: Deaths - • Per million people in the population • Per million people within x km of exposure source • Per unit of concentration • Per facility • Per ton of air toxic released • Per ton of air toxic absorbed by people • Per ton of chemical produced • Per million dollars of product produced • In terms of loss of life expectancy Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

15. Measures for characterizing harmful health effects (cont’d) • Selecting measure to characterize risk is value laden • Requires interaction between decision maker and analyst An example taken from Wilson and Crouch demonstrates how the choice of one measure or another can make a technology look either more or less risky. For example, between 1950 and 1970, coal mines became much less risky in terms of deaths from accidents per ton of coal, but they became marginally riskier in terms of deaths from accidents per employee. Which measure one thinks more appropriate for decision making depends on one's point of view. From a national point of view, given that a certain amount of coal has to be obtained to provide fuel, deaths per million tons of coal is the more appropriate measure of risk, whereas from a labor leader's point of view, deaths per thousand persons employed may be more relevant. Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

16. serious annoyance acute respiratory infection progressive degenerative disease child cancer disability weight 0 population 1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 age potential healthy life years 'health' loss DALY-concept Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

17. DALY’s from motorized transport Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

18. Risk Attribute of human activities

19. Economic subsystem Social subsystem Ecological subsystem Risk:(serious) harm might occur Economic subsystem Economic subsystem Socialsubsystem Socialsubsystem Ecological subsystem Ecological subsystem Risk Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

20. Definitions of risk • Probability of harm • Seriousness of (maximum) harm • Multi-attribute weighted sum of components of harm • Probability x seriousness of harm ('expected loss') • Probability-weighted sum of all components of harm ('average • expected loss') • Graph of points relating probability to extent of harm • Variance of harm about mean expected consequence • … Risk:a situation or event in which something of human value (including humans themselves) has been put at stake and where the outcome is uncertain. Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

21. Governance of risk Including stakeholders

22. Agenda setting Status quo Define policy Evaluation Autonomous developments Results of policy Appraisal Policy implementation Policy cycle Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

23. Consensus oriented Accountable Good governance Participatory Transparent Follows therule of law Responsive Effective and Efficient Equitable and inclusive Good governance Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

24. Management Sphere: Decision on & Implementation of Actions Assessment Sphere: Generation of Knowledge Pre-assessment • Problem Framing • Early Warning • Screening • Determination of Scientific Conventions Risk appraisal Risk management • Implementation • Option Realisation • Monitoring & Control • Feedback from Risk Mgmt. Practice • Decision Making • Option Identification & Generation • Option Assessment • Option Evaluation & Selection • Risk Assessment • Hazard Identification & Estimation • Exposure & Vulnerability Assessment • Risk Estimation • Concern Assessment • Risk Perceptions • Social Concerns • Socio-Economic Impacts Communication Tolerability and acceptability judgement • Risk Evaluation • Judging the Tolerability & Acceptability • Need for Risk Reduction Measures Risk Characterisation •Risk Profile •Judgement of the Seriousness of Risk •Conclusions & Risk Reduction Options Risk assessment framework Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

25. Framing motorized transport issues • Climate change issue • Fuel efficiency, Reduction of mobility • Mobility issue • Train, Plane, Car • Individual local transport issue • Public transport, Cycling, Car • Issue of car technology • Fuel efficiency, Exhaust cleaning • Physical planning issue • Offices near stations, Shops in towns, Bicyclepaths Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

26. Perceptions of transport risks:own car Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

27. individualist egalitarian nature stable nature instable fatalist hierarchist nature capricious nature limited Attitudes and values Better cars. Technology solves problems. Bicycles and free public transport Exposure limits for PM10 and noise. Nothing helps. Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

28. Vulnerable groups • Risk are unequally distributed • People living near express ways are more exposed to PM10 and noise from traffic than people living rural areas • People are not equally sensitive • Older people may suffer more from PM10 and noise that young adults • These differences are also influenced by socio-economic differences • Higher income groups can afford better food and housing • Education may help to effectively influence risk mitigation measures Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

29. Environmental health The top of the iceberg

30. Processing by the organism Genetic and acquired characteristics Environment and health Dynamic demographic, social, cultural, economical and technological environment Determinants: Physical environment Social environment Life style Effects on health and quality of life Health care and prevention Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

31. Environment and Health Mortality Manifest phenomena Morbidity (Aggravation of) disease,medical consumption absenteeism Adverse health effects (impairments) Retarded development of organ systems (e.g. brain), (progressive) loss of organ function (e.g. lung, kidney, cardiovascular system, liver), chronic disturbance of sleep, concentration and performance, prolonged inflammation, allergy, immuno-suppression Functional or structural changes Reversible loss of organ function, chronic stress, alteration of macromolecules (protein, DNA), enzyme induction, inflammation, immune suppression, physical, biochemical, psychological changes (e.g. in diastolic/systolic blood pressure, in serum lipoproteins, anxiety) Phenomena observable in specific surveys or investigations Body burden Exposure Persistent organic chemicals, cadmium, lead, infection, DNA-adducts, stress-hormones Chemical, physical, biological, psychological factors Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

32. Summary • Risk is an attribute of societal processes • Risk assessment is part of policy processes • Risk governance is integral and inclusive • The framing of risk issues determines the nature and degree of risk mitigation • But many still like driving a car! Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty

33. Contact data • Severij 1, NL 3155 BR MAASLAND • tel +31 10 599 0247, mobile +31 6 1297 4165 • e-mail wfpas@wxs.nl • Universiteit Maastricht • Dept. of Health Risk Analysis and Toxicology • PO Box 616, NL 6200 MD MAASTRICHT • tel +31 43 388 1097 (secretariat) • e-mail wf.passchier@grat.unimaas.nl Public Policy - Risk & Uncertainty