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Explore the changing landscape of global investment with insights on regional allocation, sector composition, and emerging markets. Understand the impact of urbanization on China's growth and commodity demand.
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Presented By: Vincent Lo Blanco, Director - Product Specialist BlackRock Investment Management Investing Globally – Global Opportunities October 2009
Additional Information Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (Australia) Limited ABN 13 006 165 975, AFS Licence Number 230523 (BlackRock). BlackRock, its officers, employees and agents believe that the information in this document is correct at the time of compilation, but no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors or omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents. This presentation contains general information only and is not intended to represent general or specific investment or professional advice. The information does not take into account an individual's financial circumstances. An assessment should be made as to whether the information is appropriate in individual circumstances and consideration should be given to talking to a financial or other professional adviser before making an investment decision. No guarantee as to the capital value of investments in the Fund(s) nor future returns is made by BlackRock. Past performance is no indicator of future performance. Long term performance returns show the potential volatility of returns over time. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially.
Changing nature of the Morgan Stanley Capital IndexThe changing global landscapeAn alternative way of global investing Agenda
Asia Pacific ex Japan UK 1.88% 10.18% Europe ex UK 21.11% Japan 11.69% North America 55.14% MSCI World (ex. Australia) Index Regional Allocation# # As at June 30, 2009 Source: FactSet
Changing MSCI Regional Composition Over the Past 20 Years Japan was a larger % of the MSCI than North America US still dominates the MSCI and hence, global returns if in an Index Fund Japan – Late 1980’s when Japanese market was bigger than the US market Source: FactSet
Telecommunication Utilities Energy Services 5.16% 11.57% 4.74% Information Materials Technology 6.11% 12.11% Industrials 10.52% Financials Consumer 18.89% Discretionary 9.53% Consumer Staples Health Care 10.44% 10.92% MSCI World (ex. Australia) Index Sector Allocation# # As at June 30, 2009 Source: FactSet
Changing MSCI Sector Composition Over the Past 20 Years Rise and Fall of IT (and Telco’s) – Decline of importance in Materials, recently trending upwards again Source: FactSet
Index Investing – what you are exposed to • Huge skew to one market → US • Little exposure to emerging markets • Significant exposure to Financials • Relatively small exposure to Materials and Energy • Large cap bias: Small Cap opportunities may be missed • Exposures reflect history not the future
Developed Markets vs. Emerging Markets • Europe Middle East Africa • Czech Republic • Egypt • Hungary • Israel • Jordan • Morocco • Poland • Russia • South Africa • Turkey • Asia • China • India • Indonesia • Korea • Pakistan • Philippines • Sri Lanka • Taiwan • Thailand • Latin America • Argentina • Brazil • Chile • Colombia • Mexico • Peru • Venezuela • Austria • Belgium • Canada • Denmark • Finland • France • Germany • Greece • Hong Kong • Ireland • Italy • Japan • Malaysia • Netherlands • New Zealand • Norway • Portugal • Singapore • Spain • Sweden • Switzerland • UK • US
World growth strong – driven by China Source: IMF World Economic Outlook September 2009
% of World GDP (PPP) 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1980 1991 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: IMF Advanced Economies Emerging & Developing Econ Growth in Emerging & Developing Economies
Engines of growth Source: CEIC, UBS
China Overtakes The U.S. in Vehicle Purchases Source: CEIC, Bloomberg
40 Why urbanisation matters Expected China urbanization 2006-20 People millions ESTIMATE 1,317 1,317 1,353 1,353 1,424 1,424 100% 100% Urban Urban 582 582 664 664 850 850 Rural Rural 734 734 689 689 574 574 2006 2006 2010 2010 2020 2020 Between now and 2020 the equivalent to the US population will urbanize in China Source: McKinsey analysis; Global Insight
88% China’s commodity demand is domestically driven • China refined Copper demand 2007 vs 2015* • kt, percent • 4,990 • 8,000 • 100% = • Export • Drivers of domestic focus • Urbanisation – building construction • Infrastructure – roads, railways, public facilities, power networks • Private consumption – white goods, automobiles • Energy consumption – fuel sources • Domestic • 2015 • 2007 • Finished steel demand 2007 vs 2015* • Mt, percent • 665 • 410 • 100% = • Export • Domestic • 2007 • 2015 * Demand in exported finished products and in domestically consumed finished products Source: McKinsey analysis
Personal Consumption as % of GDP Source: Credit Suisse, Data for Calendar Year 2008 China 36%
US: structural adjustments…… • US Consumer - 8th wonder of the world • US consumer share of GDP grew from 60%+ to 70% • Growth supercharged by digging into savings • Savings fell from 8-10% normal range to zero • A more balanced economy will emerge • Getting there means a recession US personal savings rate Postwar average Source: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs
Want To Bet on the Status Quo? Sources: Credit Suisse, US BLS, US BEA, US Federal Reserve, China CEIC, China NBS
Current Positioning / Outlook • Flexibility in Practice • Equity Geographic Breakdown: 31 August 2009 MSCI World ex Aust 22.24% Key Points: Since the Fund is managed via a flexible investment approach, it can search anywhere in the world for the best available risk/reward investments. Investments are made with little regard to index exposures. The Fund provides opportunistic exposure to emerging markets when the time is right. MSCI World ex Aust 11.29% MSCI World ex Aust 54.33% MSCI World ex Aust 1.75% MSCI World ex Aust 0.00% MSCI World ex Aust 10.39% Sources BlackRock/Factset Data based on the BlackRock Global Allocation Fund (Aust) – Class D units
Current Positioning / Outlook • Flexibility in Practice • Fixed Interest Breakdown: • 31 August 2009 Sources BlackRock/Factset Data based on the BlackRock Global Allocation Fund (Aust) – Class D units
GAF Australia history from inception 4/7/2005 to 30/09/2009 $ Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Long-term performance returns show the potential volatility of returns over time. Returns shown are in AUD Returns shown do not take into account the effect of taxes and are net of a 0.20% management fee and a 12.5% performance fee where the cumulative return of the Fund has been greater than the previous highest month end and cumulative return. The performance shown is for illustrative purposes only. No guarantee as to the capital value of investments in the Fund nor future returns is made by BlackRock. Source: BlackRock
Delivering Performance Performance to 30 September 2009 – “D” Class Past Performance is no indication of future performance. No guarantee as to the capital value of investments in the Fund nor future returns is made by BlackRock Investment Management (Australia) Limited. Net returns are for class D units are inclusive of 0.20% management fee and a 12.5% performance fee and assumes reinvestment of distributions. Gross returns shown exclude expenses, fees and taxes and assumes reinvestment of distributions. Different Management fees apply to different unit classes. Benchmark consists of a weighted average of returns for a composite of 36% S&P 500 Composite (Total Return), 24% Financial Times/S&P Actuaries World Index ex-US (total return), 24% Merrill Lynch Government Index GA05 (5 year treasury bond) and 16% Citigroup Non-USD World Government Debt Index *Inception: 4 July 2005