1 / 31

A Global Economic and Market Outlook

A Global Economic and Market Outlook. Presented by Dr Chris Caton. March 2011. Production in flooded areas-- % of national production. Queensland black coal production. US Housing starts are bumping along the bottom. (Millions). Source: Datastream.

alesia
Download Presentation

A Global Economic and Market Outlook

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Dr Chris Caton March 2011

  2. Production in flooded areas-- % of national production

  3. Queensland black coal production

  4. US Housing starts are bumping along the bottom (Millions) Source: Datastream

  5. It keeps taking longer to get back the jobs (% decline from peak employment)

  6. 2011 Growth Forecasts (%) Month of Forecast Source: Consensus Economics

  7. Industrial production (2005=100)

  8. Food prices relative to US GDP deflator (1970=100, log scale)

  9. Real GDP growth in Australia and the US Year to % change Source: Datastream

  10. China is tracking Japan very closely

  11. What goes up…..

  12. The Labour market is on the mend 000’s % Employment (LHS) Unemployment Rate (RHS) Source: ABS

  13. Australian Inflation % BT Forecasts GST Effect Source: ABS

  14. Proportion of prices in the CPI that went up in the quarter

  15. House prices since 2005

  16. Gross Domestic Product % BTForecasts GST Effect Source: ABS

  17. Capital spending is set to grow further

  18. Global Medium-Term Economic Growth and Inflation Prospects (2011-2023) Source: Consensus Economics

  19. Asia-Pacific Medium-Term Economic Growth and Inflation Prospects (2010-2020) Source: Consensus Economics

  20. Financial Market Forecasts

  21. The Australian Dollar and US Trade Weighted Index Index AUD/USD AUD/USD (RHS) US TWI inverted (LHS) Source: Datastream

  22. Average daily trading range in the Australian dollar

  23. Australian Sharemarket Performance – ASX200 Source: Bloomberg

  24. The Australian market is again cheap (forward P/E ratio)

  25. World share markets are cheap also

  26. It makes a difference when you buy

  27. Economics does matter!

  28. Morgan Stanley Capital Indexes Developed Index Asian Emerging Markets Index Asian Emerging Markets Index (RHS) World Developed Index (LHS) Source: Datastream

  29. Summary • The global economic recovery continues, albeit at a moderate pace. This makes it a long recovery. • The Australian economy should continue to grow well, led in the short term by mining investment. The floods will have only temporary effects on the macroeconomic data. • Interest rates should eventually rise further. • The exchange rate is above fair value. The rest of the world is on sale for Australians. • Share markets are still cheap.

  30. This presentation has been prepared by BT Financial Group Limited (ABN 63 002 916 458) ‘BT’ and is for general information only.  Every effort has been made to ensure that it is accurate, however it is not intended to be a complete description of the matters described.  The presentation has been prepared without taking into account any personal objectives, financial situation or needs.  It does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any securities advice or securities recommendation.  Furthermore, it is not intended that it be relied on by recipients for the purpose of making investment decisions and is not a replacement of the requirement for individual research or professional tax advice.  BT does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information which is contained in this presentation.  Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, BT and its directors, employees and consultants do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this presentation or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person.  Unless otherwise noted, BT is the source of all charts; and all performance figures are calculated using exit to exit prices and assume reinvestment of income, take into account all fees and charges but exclude the entry fee.  It is important to note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This document was accompanied by an oral presentation, and is not a complete record of the discussion held. No part of this presentation should be used elsewhere without prior consent from the author. For more information, please call BT Customer Relations on 132 135 8:00am to 6:30pm (Sydney time)

  31. Australia’s public debt problem is complete fiction!

More Related