Adapting to Climate Change

1. Adapting to Climate Change Activities, Lessons learned, work in progress and recommendations for Latin America and The Caribbean region Climate Change Team, World Bank

3. Enabling activities • Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change (CPACC) $5.0 m. • Awareness & capacity building • Documenting trends & impacts • Institutional strengthening • Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change (MACC) $4.5 m • Vulnerability assessments • Sector policies

4. CPACC’s achievements • Sea-level and climate monitoring system • Increased appreciation of climate change issues at the policy-making level and technical support to regional positioning at the Convention. • Establishment of coral reef monitoring protocols. • Creation of a network for regional harmonization of actions to adapt to the impacts of climate change • Creation of the Caribbean Climate Change Center

5. Red de Observacion del Nivel del Mar para America Central (RONMAC) & Caribbean: Planning for Adaptation to Global Climate Change (CPACC) BAHAMAS JAMAICA BELIZE ST. KITTS ANTIGUA GUATEMALA HONDURAS DOMINICA ST. LUCIA EL SALVADOR BARBADOS ST. VINCENT NICARAGUA GRENADA TRINIDAD & TOBAGO GUYANA Non-CPACC/RONMAC Monitoring Site CPACC/RONMAC Monitoring Site

6. MACC • Assess the impact of climate change impacts on freshwater availability • Understand the impacts of shifting fishing grounds, impact on total stocks and the bleaching and death of coral reefs • Improve the understanding of climate change impacts on local agriculture • Revamp land use planing and coastal zone management

7. Dominica, St. Lucia and St. Vincent: Implementation of adaptation measures in coastal zones (US$3.9 m) • Formulate and implement adaptation measures to face impacts on coastal zones: • Ecosystems: Coastal and marine ecosystems • Service: Water supply • Economic activity: Fisheries and tourism

8. Activities • Water • Counter saline intrusion and changed precipitation patterns with water supply and conservation policy. • Coastal and marine ecosystems • Strengthen conservation regime, reduce local stresses; additional protection measures. • Fisheries and tourism • Adjust patterns of use of ecosystem services, proactively invest in conservation

9. Caribbean SPA • Climate change special program ($0.4 m) • Interpret, apply results of GCM to Caribbean scale • Develop an economic assessment tool for adaptation measures

10. SPAC • Phase III activities • Support for select adaptation investments • Reduction of vulnerability of water resources • Conserving and restoring coastal ecosystems and structures likely to be impacted by CC • Reduction in pressures on biodiversity • Establishment of coordinated legal institutional and operational framework

11. Special Program on Adaptation in the CaribbeanSPAC The project would support two activities: 1. Detailed design of pilot adaptation programs to reduce expected negative impacts of climate change on coastal biodiversity and land degradation: (i) technical design of interventions and assessment of expected outcomes; (ii) cost effectiveness analysis of proposed adaptation investments under projected GCC scenarios; (iii) Monitoring and evaluation of project activities and outcomes, with specific objective of maximizing its learning value.

12. Special Program on Adaptation in the CaribbeanSPAC 2. Implementation of pilot adaptation investments: The project will support the implementation, on a pilot basis, of selected adaptation investments: • Reduction of water resources vulnerability; • Conserving and restoring coastal ecosystems impacted by GCC; • Reduction of pressures on biodiversity from habitat conversion induced by GCC impacts; • Reduction of GCC impacts on coastal and marine resources;

13. ANDES REGION, GLACIER YANAMAREY( Cordillera Blanca-altitute 4786 m above sea level)

14. NCAR Impacts At High Altitudes Analysis of 7 GCM simulations with 2x CO2 levels shows large and statistically significant free air temperature changes (compared to controls) along the axis of the American Cordillera (from Alaska to southern Chile). At all latitudes, the change in temperature increases with elevation, especially in South America GRL: Bradley et al 2005

15. The economic and social costs of the destruction of tropical glaciers • Impact on water supply to Andean cities: • Quito 50% water dependency from glacier basins • La Paz 30% dependency • Bogota, 100% on water supply from highland moorlands • Impact on energy • Most countries in the Andes are dependent on hydro energy for power generation

18. Glacier retreat: impact on energy • Most countries in the Andes are dependent on hydro energy for power generation • Bolivia 50% • Colombia 73% • Ecuador 72% • Peru 81% Ecuador Bolivia

19. The costs of glacier retreat for the power sector in Peru

20. The costs of glacier retreat for water supply to Quito Investment needs: Rios Orientales project with and without climate change

22. Bio-tope Current (1 x CO2) Future (2 x CO2) Difference ( 2 x CO2 - 1 x CO2) K Ha K Ha K Ha % de cambio Páramo (up to 4000 m) 323 84. -238. -75 Superpáramo (up to 4500 m) 40. 6. -34. -85 Nival 45. 1.3 -43.7 -95 Estimated loss of high mountain habitat in Northern Andes (Gutierrez, 2002) (Potentially devastating impacts on water supply, agriculture, power generation)

23. Installed Power Generation Capacity (2001)

24. Colombia: Integrated National Adaptation Program ($8.5 m) • Formulate and implement adaptation measures to face impacts on: • Ecosystems: • High mountain ecosystems • Insular areas • Services: • Water, power, ecosystem integrity, health • Economic activity: • Agriculture, energy

25. Global Destruction of endemic habitat Extinction of global biodiversity Release of carbon from Paramo soils Increased stress on down slope habitats (primary rainforests) Carbonization of power sector Regional, local Loss of water storage function Impact on water supply to urban areas Increased likelihood of Fires Desertification Anticipated impacts: High Mountain

26. Tuluá Barragán Roncesvalles Sn José Hermosas Buga San Antonio Guacarí Ginebra Chaparral El Cerrito Palmira Rioblanco Pradera Planadas

27. Activities • High mountains: a) restoration and conservation of soil cover for water and carbon retention; b) development of alternatives to high mountain economic activities • Insular areas: counter the reduction in coral areas, and expansion of the protection regime for marine areas, as well as water conservation and supply system. • Power sector: a) higher level of water reserves in existing reservoirs; b) development of non-hydro, renewable energy resources (wind, biomass, solar) • Health sector: modifications to account for higher rates of exposure to tropical diseases.

28. Climate Change Special Program ($0.4 m) --Measure carbon and water retention and flows --Provide permanent high altitude weather stations --Document horizontal precipitation and other weather variables --Store and process climate data --Document trends and impacts

29. Lessons • Strong institutions ‘sine qua non’ • Strong partnerships • Political leverage • Credibility of the Bank on climate issues • Exploit synergism with mitigation activities

30. RECOMMNENDATIONS • Strengthen work on institutional development and technical assistance in climate change. • Support better understanding of regional climate trends and projected impacts. • Mainstreaming of climate concerns into national and regional policies and development activities • Work on ecosystem restoration and climate change adaptation to be made more complementary and mutually supportive • Synergies between the mitigation work (with carbon revenues) and adaptation opportunities in the region.

33. Access to information and linking science to development • Provide a bridge between science and development • Meteorological Research Institute (Japan) • National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA) • Pool of glaciology institutes (Insbruck, IRD, UMASS) • Japanese Space Agency (Japan) • Georgia Tech University (USA) • NOAA (USA) • Support institutions and efforts to mainstream climate concerns • Assess costs and impacts of climate change

34. Partnership MRI-World Bank-IDEAM, CCCCC, CONAM, INE • Scope of the Cooperation. • training in Japan to enable efficient use of ES data • technical assistance to interpret results • scientific exchange • cooperation for dissemination of results in scientific literature • data storage • feedback to ES for better future simulation at regional level

35. Projected drop in winter rainfall over Mexico for 2050 Perez and Mendez, unpublished data, 2006

36. NCAR Scientific Support facilities • 900 Staff • 500 Scientists/Engineers • ~$200m funding (NSF) • 4 Boulder-area campuses • 5 Laboratories • 45 years experience 1. Observational Facilities 2. Computational Resources 3. Community Models

37. NCAR CCSM: Community Climate System Model Inter-tropical convergence regional model

38. NCARExperimental Hurricane Analyses Wind from Numerical Forecast Likelihood of Wind Damage Electric Grid Damage Electric Grid Restoration Brian Bush, 2005

39. Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, JAXA, ALOS PRISM 3-D Data on ground surface with 2.5 meter spatial resolution Three instruments for remote sensing

40. Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, JAXA, ALOS PALSAR Synthetic aperture radar suited to Detect changes in topography and Geology from signals reflected on earth’s surface AVNIR-2 Infra-red radiometer for obtaining data on land use and vegetation with 10 meter Spatial resolution