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Emerging Growth: Mid-Decade Economic Trends

Emerging Growth: Mid-Decade Economic Trends. University of North Texas Center for Economic Development and Research http ://cedr.unt.edu. July 2014. U. S. Real GDP Growth Annual Percentage Change. 2013: 1.9%. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Emerging Growth: Mid-Decade Economic Trends

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  1. Emerging Growth: Mid-Decade Economic Trends University of North Texas Center for Economic Development and Research http://cedr.unt.edu July 2014

  2. U. S. Real GDP GrowthAnnual Percentage Change 2013: 1.9% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  3. Real Economic GrowthGross domestic product 1Q 2014: -2.9% 2010 2011 2012 2013 ’14 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  4. Nonfarm PayrollsMonthly change, in thousands June 2014: 288,000 2012 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  5. Nonfarm Payrolls 2008-PresentMonthly change, in thousands Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  6. Human SacrificeNumber of layoff announcements in the U. S. (in thousands) Jun ’14: 31,434 2012 2013 2014 Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas

  7. Human Sacrifice 2008-PresentNumber of layoff announcements in the U. S. (in thousands) Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas

  8. U. S. Jobless RateSeasonally adjusted June ’14: 6.1% 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  9. Personal IncomeTotal personal income in trillions of dollars, before taxes, at seasonally adjusted annual rates May ’14: $14.6 trillion 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis

  10. Personal Income 2000-13Total personal income in trillions of dollars, before taxes, at seasonally adjusted annual rates Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis

  11. Personal ConsumptionIn trillions May ’14: $11.8 trillion 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis

  12. Personal Consumption 2000-13In trillions Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis

  13. Retail SalesTotal retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted June 2014: $439.9 billion 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Commerce Department

  14. Retail Sales 2007-PresentTotal retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Source: U.S. Commerce Department

  15. June 2014: 103.9 Industrial ProductionIndex, 2007=100, seasonally adjusted Source: Federal Reserve Board

  16. Construction SpendingIn billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted May 2014: $956.1 billion 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

  17. Construction Spending 2007-PresentIn billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Source: Commerce Department

  18. Housing StartsNew private housing starts during the month, in thousands, at seasonally adjusted annual rates. June ’14:893,000 2013 2014 Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau

  19. Housing Starts 2000-13New private housing starts during the month, in thousands, at seasonally adjusted annual rates. Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau

  20. Dallas-Fort Worth Home Starts (in thousands) 43.8 20.8 Sources: Dallas Morning News; Residential Strategies

  21. Dallas-Ft. Worth Home Permits Issued(in thousands) 49.6 36.2 20.8 Sources: Dallas Morning News; National Association of Home Builders

  22. May 2014: 504,000 New-Home SalesSingle-family homes (in thousands) 2012 2013 2014 Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau

  23. Existing-Home SalesAnnual rate, in millions of dwelling units. May 2014: 4.89 million Source: The National Association of Realtors

  24. Lower Prices and Interest Rates Helping Housing Affordability (Percent of homes sold for which the median family income could qualify) Original Slide provided by K. Phillips, FRB-Dallas; Updated by CEDR

  25. ProductivityNonfarm business productivity, percent change from previous quarter at annual rate, seasonally adjusted 1Q 2014: -3.2% 2010 2011 2012 2013 ’14 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  26. Producer PricesPercentage change from previous month for final demand goods, seasonally adjusted. June 2014: 0.4% 0 0 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  27. Consumer PricesPercentage change, month to month (seasonally adjusted) June 2014: 0.3% 0 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  28. Consumer Confidence IndexFrom a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1985 = 100 June 2014: 85.2 2013 2014 Source: The Conference Board

  29. Consumer Confidence: 2007-Present From a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1985 = 100 Source: The Conference Board

  30. Leading IndicatorsIndex of 10 indicators designed to “lead,” or predict overall economic activity; 2004 = 100. June 2014: 102.2 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: The Conference Board

  31. Things to Worry About • Pace of job growth • Unfunded pension liabilities • European sovereign default • Corporate and consumer debt • Federal Deficits/Debt • Social Security / Medicare / Healthcare impact on taxes • Political gridlock • Environmental regulations • Market volatility

  32. Budget DeficitIn billions of dollars 2012: -$1.09 trillion 2013: -$679.5 billion 2014 Projected: -$492 billion 2015 Projected: -$469 billion 2016 Projected: -$536 billion Source: Congressional Budget Office

  33. International Goods & Services Trade DeficitBillions of dollars, seasonally adjusted. Import figures exclude shipping and insurance. May 2014: $44.4 billion 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

  34. 1Q 2014: $81.8 trillion Household Net WorthIn trillions 2010 2011 2012 2013 ’14 Source: Federal Reserve Board

  35. Personal Bankruptcy FilingsFiscal Years ending Sept. 30 (in millions) Sources: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts

  36. Business Bankruptcies Sources: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts

  37. Savings RateAs Percentage of Disposable Personal Income May ’14: 4.8% 2012 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis

  38. Savings Rate 2000-2013As Percentage of Disposable Personal Income Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis

  39. Longest Recession Since 1933Ended June 2009 Federal Reserve Bank Dallas

  40. TXLI ComponentsChanges Mar-Apr-May Source: Federal Reserve Bank Dallas

  41. Texas Leading Index 1981-PresentMonthly, Seasonally Adjusted, 1987=100 Last Data Entry: May 2014 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

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