Understanding Disruptions from Emerging Demographic Trends

1. Understanding Disruptions from Emerging Demographic Trends Presentation to the Michigan Community College Association July 26, 2012 Kenneth Darga, State Demographer Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget DargaK@michigan.gov www.michigan.gov/census

2. Major Topic Areas: • Total Population • Migration Patterns • Age Distribution • Births • Economic Disruptions

3. Major Topic Areas: • Total Population • Migration Patterns • Age Distribution • Births Topic 1: Economic Disruptions

16. For more information on Michigan’s One-State Recession: • Go to www.michigan.gov/census • Look for the link: Rethinking Michigan’s One-State Recession (paper and video)

17. Topic 2: Total Population

18. Demographic Topic #1:Total Population “There has been an unprecedented decline in Michigan’s population over the past few years.”

19. Demographic Topic #1:Total Population “There has been an unprecedented decline in Michigan’s population over the past few years.”

26. Each recession has involved: • More people leaving • Fewer people arriving from other    states and countries • Lower birth rates An additional factor: • People leaving for military service

27. Each recession has involved: • More people leaving • Fewer people arriving from other    states and countries • Lower birth rates An additional factor: • People leaving for military service

28. Demographic Topic #1:Total Population “Michigan’s population stagnated during the first half of the last decade, and then plummeted in the second half.”

29. Demographic Topic #1:Total Population “Michigan’s population stagnated during the first half of the last decade, and then plummeted in the second half.”

32. Demographic Topic #1:Total Population “Michigan’s share of the nation’s population has decreased every year since 1970, leading to the loss of at least one congressional seat in each of the past four decades.”

42. Disruptive Factors Affecting Michigan’s Population Share: • Westward movement of U.S. population • Revival of the Sunbelt • Hispanic immigration into the U.S. (primarily into West and South) • Not having a big city that attracts a lot of migrants from other states • Impact of recessions.

43. Disruptive Factors Affecting Michigan’s Population Share: • Westward movement of U.S. population • Revival of the Sunbelt • Hispanic immigration into the U.S. (primarily into West and South) • Not having a big city that attracts a lot of migrants from other states • Impact of recessions.

44. Disruptive Factors Affecting Michigan’s Population Share: • Westward movement of U.S. population • Revival of the Sunbelt • Hispanic immigration into the U.S. (primarily into West and South) • Not having a big city that attracts a lot of migrants from other states • Impact of recessions.

45. Disruptive Factors Affecting Michigan’s Population Share: • Westward movement of U.S. population • Revival of the Sunbelt • Hispanic immigration into the U.S. (primarily into West and South) • Not having a big city that attracts a lot of migrants from other states • Impact of recessions.

46. Disruptive Factors Affecting Michigan’s Population Share: • Westward movement of U.S. population • Revival of the Sunbelt • Hispanic immigration into the U.S. (primarily into West and South) • Not having a big city that attracts a lot of migrants from other states • Impact of recessions.

48. Potential Future Disruptions: • Movement of population to states with adequate supplies of water? • Global warming? • Global Cooling? • Global uncertainty?

49. Potential Future Disruptions: • Movement of population to states with adequate supplies of water? • Global warming? • Global Cooling? • Global uncertainty?

50. Potential Future Disruptions: • Movement of population to states with adequate supplies of water? • Global warming? • Global Cooling? • Global uncertainty?