NWS Alaska Region: Challenges in an Era of Changing Climate

1. NWS Alaska Region: Challenges in an Era of Changing Climate PRIDE Alaska Coastal Wind/Wave Climatology Workshop August 2-4, 2005 James Partain, Chief Environmental & Scientific Services Division NOAA NWS Alaska Region

2. NOAA NWS Alaska Region - Overview • 3 full-service Weather Forecast Offices • 12 limited-service Weather Service Offices • River Forecast Center • Tsunami Warning Center • 2 Aviation weather centers

3. NOAA NWS Alaska Region - Facilities

4. Climate Impacts on Service Programs in NWS Alaska Region • Aviation – more frequent icing, IMC conditions; aviators in bush still operating on old assumptions • Public - more frequent “high amplitude” weather episodes (e.g. mid-winter thaws, coastal storms, windstorms, heavy precip) • Marine – more frequent high-impact events, esp. in areas of sea-ice retreat • Wildfire - more variable regime-dependent fuel-moisture conditions

5. Climate Impacts on Service Programs in NWS Alaska Region (cont) • Hydrology – greater variability in river volume & depth and related flooding and erosion; ice-dammed glacier lake releases • Volcanic Ash – resuspension of relic ash from Katmai complex in Sept. 2003 led to redefinition of volcanic ashfall “event” • Tsunami – sea-level rise may have eventual impacts

6. Example: Bering Sea Storm of Oct, 2004 • Greatest short-term weather impacts of climate change are for coastal storms and attendant erosion • Later freeze-up, less extent and thinner sea-ice, combined with loss of coastal permafrost, is a recipe for erosion from normal Fall storms • Impacts magnified by greater wave size due to increased open-water fetch

7. The Bering Sea Storm – Oct 18-20, 2004 • Most important contributions from NWS are Accuracy and Lead Time • The “bomb” of October 18-20, 2004, illustrates the potential of our contributions • An ex-tropical cyclone rapidly deepened over a period of several days to 940mb (hurricane intensity) • Such storms normally handled very poorly by the models, even in the short-term • In this case, atmospheric model had large-scale details, including amplification and track, predicted at 5-days lead time • More importantly, run-to-run consistency was key to forecaster confidence in forecast/warning issuances.

8. The Bering Sea Storm – Oct 18-20, 2004 • Lead-time from WFO Fairbanks with first service products was 3 days • Emergency managers were in continuous contact with NWS offices Fairbanks, Nome and Kotzebue before, during and after the event • NWS storm surge guidance also quite accurate and useful both to NWS staff and EMs • Evacuations took place and physical mitigations were put in place for structure protection…no loss of life or significant injuries resulted.

9. The Bering Sea Storm – Oct 18-20, 2004 • Still…much erosion and property damage occurred • $30M damage in Nome alone • 50+ feet of shoreline lost in Shishmaref…they will not survive another such storm • This storm showed: • The value of accurate, consistent objective guidance in improving forecaster confidence in a developing storm • The value of lead time • The value of NWS information to emergency planners for disaster mitigation.

10. Nome, AK – during the storm

11. Nome, AK – Front Street

12. A residence in Shishmaref – after the storm

13. The Shishmaref school after the storm

14. A residence in Shishmaref – after the storm

15. The Shishmaref school after the storm