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Authorised Financial Services Provider – FSP No: 859

Authorised Financial Services Provider – FSP No: 859. The Economy – What Was, What Is & What Will Be. Dawie Roodt 17 September 2008. Presented by:. Evolution Timeline. Homo Sapiens “Humans” Migrate across Asia & Europe. Australopithecines. Homo Habilis. Neanderthals. Paranthropus.

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Authorised Financial Services Provider – FSP No: 859

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  1. Authorised Financial Services Provider – FSP No: 859

  2. The Economy – What Was, What Is & What Will Be Dawie Roodt 17 September 2008 Presented by:

  3. Evolution Timeline Homo Sapiens“Humans”Migrate across Asia & Europe Australopithecines Homo Habilis Neanderthals Paranthropus Homo Erectus 5.5mya 2.7 mya 2.5 mya 1.5 mya 230k ya 195,000 yrs ago

  4. Hunter-Gatherers • Nomadic • Small Groups • No Specialisation • No ‘Surplus’ • Diet: High Protein Low Fat • Short Life expectancy

  5. The 1st Big Step Forward: Domestication of Animals

  6. Domestication of Animals • Domesticate animals • Bigger clans • Nomadic • Diet High Protein More Fat • Longer life expectancy • Small surplus

  7. The 2nd Big Step Forward: Domestication of Plants

  8. Civilisation: Mesopotamia • Domesticate plants – especially grain • Carbohydrates more energy free time ‘surplus’ • Non-nomadic • Cities • Spesialisation • Autocratic Leadership • Civilisation = ‘rules’

  9. Key Characteristics of Civilisation Monotheism • Organised Government • Complex Religion • Job Specialisation • Social Class • Writing & Record Keeping • Arts & Architecture • Public Works Polytheism Royalty Priests Traders Labourers

  10. Dawn of Democracy Establishment of Institutions…

  11. The Economic Role of Institutions Private Property Rights Independent Judiciary Freedom of Press Independence Central Bank Democratic Process

  12. A Modern Day Example: Zimbabwe

  13. Destruction of Institutions Democracy:New Leader Appointed Ecstatic! Change Economic Policy: More ‘democratic’ Take from the “Haves” (non-supporters) Give to the “Have-Nots”(supporters) IGNORES Private Property Rights Negative ImpactonInvestmentSavingsConfidence UNDERMINES Economy

  14. Destruction of Institutions Democracy:New Leader Appointed Ecstatic! Change Economic Policy: More ‘democratic’Take from the “Haves” (non-supporters) Give to the “Have-Nots”(supporters) Inflation: 200,000,000% ?? IGNORES Private Property Rights Negative ImpactonInvestmentSavingsConfidence UNDERMINES Economy CapitalDwindles…. Start to Print Money DESTROYS Independence Central Bank Media & Press: Report on Disapproval and Objections by Public Court & Legal System:Public tries to find Justice through legal system DESTROYS Independent Judiciary BANS Freedom of Press

  15. Destruction of Institutions Democracy:New Leader Appointed Ecstatic! Change Economic Policy: More ‘democratic’Take from the “Haves” (non-supporters) Give to the “Have-Nots”(supporters) DESTROYS Democratic Process Democracy: Mugabe-Style1 Man, 1 Vote, 1 Candidate! IGNORES Private Property Rights Voting System:Public tries to vote dictator out Negative ImpactonInvestmentSavingsConfidence UNDERMINES Economy CapitalDwindles…. Start to Print Money DESTROYS Independence Central Bank Media & Press: Report on Disapproval and Objections by Public Court & Legal System:Public tries to find Justice through legal system DESTROYS Independent Judiciary BANS Freedom of Press

  16. Destruction of Institutions Democracy:New Leader Appointed Ecstatic! Change Economic Policy: More ‘democratic’Take from the “Haves” (non-supporters) Give to the “Have-Nots”(supporters) DESTROYS Democratic Process IGNORES Private Property Rights Voting System:Public tries to vote dictator out Negative ImpactonInvestmentSavingsConfidence UNDERMINES Economy CapitalDwindles…. Start to Print Money DESTROYS Independence Central Bank Media & Press: Report on Disapproval and Objections by Public Court & Legal System:Public tries to find Justice through legal system DESTROYS Independent Judiciary BANS Freedom of Press

  17. Is SA the next Zim?

  18. Destruction of Institutions in SA? Private Property Rights 2008: Land Expropriation Bill

  19. Destruction of Institutions in SA? Freedom of Press “Mbeki received R30m”

  20. Destruction of Institutions in SA? Independent Judiciary Zuma’s Mauritius Papers

  21. Destruction of Institutions in SA? Independence Central Bank SARB Hikes 10Times! interest rate

  22. Destruction of Institutions in SA? Democratic Process POLOKWANE

  23. How do the Economies Compare?

  24. ZimBOBwean Economy: Breakdown

  25. South African Economy: Breakdown Source: StatsSA, Q108

  26. South Africa:

  27. Economic Overview

  28. Household debt to disposable income Q208:76.7% 59.4% 56.9% 50.2% 44.5% Source: SARB and own calculations

  29. Savings to disposable income of households 9.2% 5.4% 2.6% 0.5% Q208:-0.5% Source: SARB and own calculations

  30. Economic Overview

  31. Inflation: Old Basket CPI Average: 2008 8.5% Source: StatsSA and own calculations

  32. Inflation: New Basket? CPI Average: 2008 9.4% Source: StatsSA and own calculations

  33. Economic Overview

  34. Economic Overview

  35. Economic Overview

  36. Economic Overview

  37. Authourised Financial Services Provider – FSP No: 859 www.efgroup.co.za

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