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Interagency Weather Research Review Turbulence

Interagency Weather Research Review Turbulence. Facilitator: Tammy Farrar, FAA Aviation Weather Group, Turbulence Project Lead Speakers: Bob Sharman, “FAA AWRP-sponsored Turbulence Nowcasts/Forecasts” Wayne Feltz/Tony Wimmers, “Satellite-based Inferences/Convection”

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Interagency Weather Research Review Turbulence

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  1. Interagency Weather Research ReviewTurbulence • Facilitator: Tammy Farrar, FAA Aviation Weather Group, Turbulence Project Lead • Speakers: • Bob Sharman, “FAA AWRP-sponsored Turbulence Nowcasts/Forecasts” • Wayne Feltz/Tony Wimmers, “Satellite-based Inferences/Convection” • John Williams, “NASA-Sponsored Research in Global DSS”

  2. Back Up Slides

  3. Turbulence Impact on Aviation Threat to passenger and flight attendant safety From 1980 – Jul 27, 2010, Part 121, Enroute 253 turbulence-related accidents 28,934 total passengers carried 3 fatalities (0.01%) 122 serious injuries (0.42%) 1243 flight attendants, 556 pilots 0 fatalities 204 (16.4%) serious flight attendant injuries, 0 pilot injuries 1Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) Safety Benefits Analysis, MCR Federal, LLC, Oct 6, 2009. 2http://www.faa.gov/passengers/fly_safe/turbulence/

  4. Turbulence Detection AlgorithmEddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) Current Deployment UAL: Accelerometer-based algorithm on ~100 757’s DAL: Improved winds-based algorithm on ~80 737-700/800’s SWA: Winds-based algorithm currently on 10 737-700’s for testing. Planned deployment on ~340 total aircraft Efforts begun to deploy onto 767 fleets at UAL and DAL Possible deployment onto CON(UAL) 737 fleet Possible upgrade to UAL 757 algorithm UAL & DAL data displayed on Experimental Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) In Situ Turbulence Viewer Access restricted to participating airlines at this time DAL EDR Proof of Concept Demo On-going thru Jan 15, 2011

  5. Average 24 hour EDR coverage UAL ~100 a/c SWA 10 a/c DAL ~80 a/c Images courtesy Research Applications Laboratory, NCAR

  6. Projected GTG releases – next 7 years (updated 1 Oct 2010) Version Capabilities Op. date*/enter CMTD GTG1 Upper levels 3/2003* RUC20 GTG2Improved GTG1 2/11/2010* +Mid levels +Uses UAL in situ GTG2.5 13 km WRFRR 7/2011 cutout grids +VWA insitu (UAL+DAL+SWA) GTG3 13 km WRFRR native grids 3/31/2012 +MWT +Optimized use of insitu +1-18 hrs GTGN1NTDA2/DCIT/insitu 6/30/2012 GTG3 mid+upper levels, 0-15 min GTG4 Improved GTG3 FY15 +Ensembles/Probabilistic forecasts +all altitudes, full WRFRR domain GTGN2NTDA3 FY15 +GTG4 +0-FL450, 0-1 hr Global GTG Global – GFS based FY15 GTG5 Improved GTG4 FY17 +CIT/HRRR GTG6 Improved GTG5 FY19 <FL650 GTG5 GTG1 GTG3 GTG2 GTG5 GTG4 GTG6 Seg 1 versions Source: P. Lester, “Turbulence – A new perspective for pilots,” Jeppesen, 1994

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