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A study to clarify important systematic errors

A study to clarify important systematic errors. A.K.Ichikawa, Kyoto univ. We have just started not to be in a time blind with construction works. Activity members come from KEK, Kyoto univ and Tokyo univ.

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A study to clarify important systematic errors

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  1. A study to clarify important systematic errors A.K.Ichikawa, Kyoto univ. We have just started not to be in a time blind with construction works. Activity members come from KEK, Kyoto univ and Tokyo univ.

  2. Hiraide study in 2004http://www-he.scphys.kyoto-u.ac.jp/member/hiraide/t2k/index.html Systematic shifts on (sin22q23,Dm232) are evaluated with following systematic errors. • Flux normalization uncertainty (10%) • Non-QE ratio uncertainty (20%) • Energy scale uncertainty (4%) • Spectrum shape uncertainty (FLUKA/MARS) • Spectrum width uncertainty (10%)

  3. K.Hiraide OA2.5deg Systematic shift d(sin2 2q) d(Dm2) MINOS 90% nqe shape esk width width norm stat. esk stat. norm shape nqe Various systematic shifts are shown as a function of true Dm2. Dashed lines indicate the size of statistical error.

  4. This was a very instructive study. Direct reduction of above systematic errors is very important. • Indirect reduction of systematic errors by cancellation btw. near and far observation is not evaluated. • Near to Far Extrapolation method should be studied. A new method may be useful if that is found to be robust against systematic uncertainty. • Default : Far/Near ratio • Matrix in (Enfar, Ennear) plane. • Using parent’s(=p,K) (p,q) distribution • Some of the systematic errors is not evaluated. (e.g. beam related ones.)

  5. Cancellation of syst error on N11exp N11exp(f) NSKMC(f) ∝NKTMC(f) From K2K

  6. From K2K Contribution of syst. errors on spectrum Spec. nQE/QE Spec.+nQE/QE Total SK Escale eSK F/N

  7. K2K-II ne appearance searchError on backgrounds from nm * Super-K intrinsic

  8. Short term goal of this study • Find the best near to far extrapolation method • The best one would varies depending on statistics and information from NA61 and ND measurements. • Can ND mesurements constrain hadron production uncertainty when there is uncertainty on netrino interaction? • Make oscillation analysis tool for T2K based on the K2K method. • See next slide. • Clarify the importance of following systematic errors as a function of statistics • Hadron production • Compare GFLUKA, MARS and FLUKA2007 • Getting reasonable error matrix on flux by assuming reasonable uncertainty in (p,q) distribution • After NA61 results come, this will be replaced. • Beamline origin (misalignment etc.) • Neutrino interaction Energy dependent non-QE/CCQE ratio, NC/CC ratio • Super-K intrinsic energy scale and normalization (comes from FV, PID etc.) For ne appearance, statistical and Super-K intrinsic error would be dominant. Still update of p.7 table with T2K off-axis flux is important to confirm this.

  9. From K2K Likelihood Normalization term Shape term for FCFV 1Rm Systematic parameter constraint term

  10. T2K Near to Far extrapolation Matrix En(Super-K) Robustness against the hadron production uncertainty will be checked. En(Super-K) v.s. En(on-axis) will be made, too. Very Preliminary En(Off-axis ND280) K.Sakashita

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