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The Battle for Mindshare

The Battle for Mindshare. A Battle Beyond Access and Retrieval. Dr. John J. Regazzi Miles Conrad Lecture NFAIS Conference 2004. Battle for Mindshare. The Context The ‘Shifting Sands’ What Way Forward. THE CONTEXT. Information Supply Chain. Information Supply Chain Historical. AUTHORS.

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The Battle for Mindshare

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  1. The Battle for Mindshare A Battle Beyond Access and Retrieval Dr. John J. Regazzi Miles Conrad Lecture NFAIS Conference 2004

  2. Battle for Mindshare • The Context • The ‘Shifting Sands’ • What Way Forward

  3. THE CONTEXT Information Supply Chain Information Supply ChainHistorical AUTHORS PUBLISHERS LIBRARIES READERS

  4. THE CONTEXT A&I SERVICES, ONLINE VENDORS Information Supply Chain Information Supply Chain Early Online Impact AUTHORS PUBLISHERS LIBRARIES READERS

  5. THE CONTEXT Information Supply Chain A simple information “supply chain” has been transformed into a complex information network…

  6. THE CONTEXT Information Supply Chain Information Supply ChainToday OPEN ACCESS AUTHORS eBOOK, eJOURNALS PREPRINT SERVERS CONTENT AGGREGATORS PUBLISHERS SECONDARY PUBLISHING SYNDICATORS & FACTIVA AGENTS LOCAL SYSTEMS DDS, SILVER PLATTER ONLINE VENDORS DIALOG, STN, LN DOCUMENT DELIVERY SERVICES NEW ONLINE PORTALS WEB PORTALS GOOGLE INFORMATION INTERMEDIARIES LIBRARIES KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS CORPORATE INFORMATION SERVICES NATIONAL/REGIONAL CONSORTIA READERS

  7. THE CONTEXT Information Supply Chain A simple information “supply chain” has been transformed into a (perhaps too) complex information network … How did this happen?

  8. THE CONTEXT Technology Explosion Directory Data Expansion Discovery & Access Systems Growth Significant A&I Industry Growth What Happened?    Or Did It ?

  9. THE CONTEXT Explosion of Technology Information Technology Costs1972 vs. 2003$ per million transactions 2003 1972

  10. THE CONTEXT Growth of Data Refereed Academic Journal Growth1900-2000 Number of Journals 3.3% 4.7% 3.3%

  11. THE CONTEXT Number of Databases 20,000 est. 8,000 7 1972 1992 2003 Records in Databases 10 BN est. 4.5 BN 5.2 M 2 M 1972 1982 1992 2003 Growth of Databases 150% 10YR Growth Rate 122% 10YR Growth Rate

  12. THE CONTEXT Growth of the A&I Market • Adjusted figures show that the A&I market is shrinkingin overall size. STM A&I Global Revenues1972-2003 - 5% Market Growth since 1999 $1BN 5.3% Annual Growth $830M $200M 1972 1982 1992 2003 1999 Note: 0-1% growth in constant dollar

  13. THE SHIFTING SANDS Shifting Sands • What Shifts? • University Infrastructure Spending • A&I Production, Coverage and Focus • Scientists’ and Researchers’ Search Patterns • Early Shifts in Access Models • Shifts in Mindshare • And why ...? • With what has commonly been known as the information explosion … • With the revolution of information technology fully engaged … • With full acceptance, access and use of the technologies now in full force … • Why is the Information Access Market not growing but in decline?

  14. THE SHIFTING SANDS University Infrastructure Spending Research & Library Spending Growth1975-1995 Index 4.6% CAGR 2.2% CAGR

  15. THE SHIFTING SANDS University Infrastructure Spending Library Expenditures as a Percent of University Expenditures40 ARL Libraries, 1982-2000 %

  16. THE SHIFTING SANDS University Infrastructure Spending Expenditures at (Private) US University A

  17. THE SHIFTING SANDS A&I Production & Coverage STM Database Expansion – Duplication of Effort Shifting Sands Creation of inefficient market where library pays multiple times for same record, plus (often) increase distribution markups Current Indexes Overlap 2001 Study Significant Redundancies in Public & Private Sectors 55% 53% 23% Records in Databases 10 BN est. 4.5 BN 5.2 M 122% 10YR Growth Rate 2 M Social Science Science Education 1972 1982 1992 2003

  18. THE SHIFTING SANDS ⇧600% 1972 2003 Scientists’ and Researchers’ Search Patterns Online Technology Impact Growth in Online Usage Drivers • US Household PC Acceptance • Societal Behavioral Factors • 22% have more than 1 PC • 7-10% are networked • >50% have Internet Access • 68% children use it for school • 64% adults use it for Information 80BN Online Search > 1M 2002 1972 589M PC Units 2.1M Households with PC’s 2002 1972 172M Web Hosts 130 2002 1972

  19. THE SHIFTING SANDS Scientists’ and Researchers’ Search Patterns Online Experience > 3 years using internet % 70% 82% 86% 91% Work-related Search Engine Use Days per Week % Work-related Internet Use Days per Week % Increase to 65% in over 55 group 95 15 86 12 33 41 47 33

  20. THE SHIFTING SANDS Scientists’ and Researchers’ Search Patterns Shifting Sands Experimentation by primary publishers with free access to metadata • IEEE+ • Google • Cross Search Early shift in Access Models to desktop Information Supply ChainHistorical AUTHORS PUBLISHERS SEARCH ENGINE READERS

  21. THE SHIFTING SANDS Shifts in Mindshare Who has the mindshare lead? Top 3 Online Scientific Search Resources Librarians VS Scientists

  22. THE SHIFTING SANDS Shifts in Mindshare Just how much are Search Engines worth? Search Engine vs. A&I Industry 2002 $, Billions

  23. WHAT WAY FORWARD A Sea of Change But what will researchers need and will search engines alone be able to deliver • Scientists and Researchers have needed to become much more pragmatic • Researchers increasingly work in teams – less emphasis on research and more on development as seen in top five information sources used • Corporate research teams are involved from design to market launch and need information that is traditional (journals, reports, etc.) but also business and regulatory • Data Integration/Data Mining

  24. WHAT WAY FORWARD Pharmaceutical and Biotech Needs DATA INTEGRATION/DATA MINING • Scientists still have to integrate different information sources in a related context, be they sources of internal & external information, or scientific and business information • BCG estimates $282M (33% of R&D costs) could be saved with an integrated content platform • Making informed decisions: The top three barriers identified by Outsell for corporate scientists • Inability to compare across information sources • Determining quality, credibility and accuracy • Knowing what is available • Key driver to improved productivity in biopharmaceutical R&D, recognized by McKinsey, is successful integration of data

  25. WHAT WAY FORWARD Health Care Needs Patient Information and Treatment

  26. WHAT WAY FORWARD Agricultural Engineering Needs CONTEXT Search the database to produce a list of possible pests. Datasheet provides a route to further text, pictures and maps. CABI COMPENDIUM ASSESSMENT TREATMENT Compare pest and crop distribution

  27. WHAT WAY FORWARD Summary Who can deliver these viable information resources? Well neither content nor search is king here! Rather it is those organizations which can • Filter and select • Structure the content • Provide the essential information at the right time • Provide a context – ‘a sense-making’ tool In short, the future belongs not to those that merely navigate us through cyberspace, nor those who populate it with data. Rather it belongs to those who help us make sense of all that is available to us.

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