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Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel

Adelphi Research, Berlin Alexander Carius Dennis Tänzler. The Psychological & the Political Approach to Susceptibility Dörthe Krömker. Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel. Exposure. Coping. Disaster. Agents’ perception & evaluation.

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Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel

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  1. Adelphi Research, Berlin Alexander Carius Dennis Tänzler The Psychological & the Political Approach to Susceptibility Dörthe Krömker Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel

  2. Exposure Coping Disaster Agents’ perception & evaluation Degree of being susceptible Agents actions Situation Entitlement/Access = Environmental, Economic, Infrastructural, Political, Social or Personal Factors Adaptive or non adaptive Assets or Barriers Agent based approach to susceptibility

  3. Protection-Capacity Theory Perception based appraisal process Severity Appraisal of Threat = Exposure Probability Values External Factors Degree of Susceptibility Response Efficacy Coping Appraisal = Competence Self Efficacy Costs/Barriers

  4. Perceived Probability Agrarian income Depen-dency from agriculture Not agrarian income Self-Efficacy Agrarian resources Resources if Depen-dency ratio Agrarian food source Not agrarian resources Not agrarian food source Appraisal of threat Appraisal of competence Technical measures Perceived Severity Neg. conse-quences “At place” measures Conse-quences of drought Response-Efficacy Pos. conse-quences Suscep-tibility Barriers Threatened values measured input variable dimension, computedvia Fuzzy subsystem Psychological Model

  5. Results from Psychological Perpective Andhra Pradesh, India 2001 Algarve + Alentejo, Portugal 2001 Volgograd + Saratov, Russia 2001 Low capacity Low capacity Low capacity for technical for technical for technical measures measures measures 1,00 Low capacity 1,00 Dependency Low capacity Low capacity 1,00 Dependency for at place Dependency 0,75 from agriculture for at place 0,75 for at place 0,75 from agriculture measures from agriculture measures measures 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,25 0,25 0,25 Barriers to Dependency Dependency Barriers to Dependency Barriers to 0,00 0,00 implement 0,00 ratio ratio implement implement ratio measures measures measures Appraisal of Appraisal of Appraisal of Low threatened Low Low threatened resources threatened values resources resources values values Negative Negative Negative consequences consequences consequences of drought of drought of drought 0,7 0,4 0,3 high low low

  6. Conclusions and Future Steps • The subjective exposure and the possibilities to deal with it define the degree of susceptibility • What ever the overall situation is like it is important how specific groups of people interact with it • The identification of typical subgroups within a society can be achieved • Based on that adjusted and theirewith more effective measures can be derived • Validation must still be done

  7. Adelphi Research, Berlin Alexander Carius Dennis Tänzler The Political Approach

  8. “Functional Differentiation of Societies” System Analytic Approach, based on Talcott Parson

  9. Political Capacity & Political Willingness PolSus EcoSus Wealth & Economic Susceptibility SocCuSus Social Integration The “Functional Differentiation of Societies” applied … Endangerment of a system‘s subfunctions Environmental Stress Degrees of Susceptibility

  10. Political Model Expen ditures for health - Degree of Corruption GDP per capita Size of Conflict involvement Employees in agriculture Hydro-power production Tax revenue Agriculture Opportunity of Participation Immunization Relative Relative Lack of Economic state State Wealth Sensitivity capacity willingness Socio - cultural Political Susceptibility Economic Susceptibility (as lack of Social Susceptibility Integration) Susceptibility

  11. Results for Political Approach Algarve + Alentejo, Portugal 1991- 1995 Volgograd + Saratov, Russia 1991-1995 Andhra Pradesh, India 1991-1995 Lack of Lack of Lack of Statecapacity Statecapacity Statecapacity 1,00 1,00 1,00 0,75 0,75 0,75 Lack of Lack of Lack of 0,50 0,50 0,50 Lack of Lack of Lack of Social Social Social Statewill 0,25 Statewill 0,25 0,25 Statewill Integration Integration Integration 0,00 0,00 0,00 Lack of Lack of Economic Economic Lack of Economic Wealth Wealth Sensitivity Sensitivity Wealth Sensitivity 0,8 very high 0,4 low very high 0,8

  12. Conclusions and Future Steps • Basical factors which influence the functioning of a society are identified • In this model, political susceptibility of regions depends to a large degree on conflict involvement and degrees of corruption. • Their influence on the goal attainment function of the state and on the overall results of the concept might easily be overestimated • Our approach to analyze susceptibility in its temporal development hinders us to use more precise indicators for some of the dimension because of a lack of data availability (eg. Gini) • Ideally a measurement of pattern maintenance should be added to this approach. However, empirical and theoretical barriers remain concerning this dimension hence needing further elaboration

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