270 likes | 407 Views
Student Financial Aid Research Network Conference June 20, 2013 Jeff Webster Assistant Vice-President, Research & Analytical Services Chris Fernandez Research Specialist, Research & Analytical Services TG. Deferred Costs, Delayed Credentials:.
E N D
Student Financial Aid Research Network Conference June 20, 2013 Jeff Webster Assistant Vice-President, Research & Analytical Services Chris Fernandez Research Specialist, Research & Analytical Services TG Deferred Costs, Delayed Credentials: • High Debt among Community College Transfer Students
Hispanic students who transfer borrow more than those who are native
New Research Questions • How does the population of transfer student bachelor’s grads differ significantly from the population of “native” bachelor’s grads? • Do these differences have a significant impact on grant aid and/or student borrowing?
Data and Methods • Data source: Baccalaureate & Beyond (2009) • Descriptive statistics w/ counterfactual method informing multivar regression • “Transfer”: first postsecondary institution= “2-yr public” • “Native”: number of institutions attended before graduation= “one” • “Public” = 4-yr public • “Private”= 4-yr private non-profit
Income Distribution- Public U.S. Dept of Education, Baccalaureate and Beyond 2009 (B&B:09)
Borrowing by income decile- Public U.S. Dept of Education, Baccalaureate and Beyond 2009 (B&B:09)
Borrowing by income decile- Private U.S. Dept of Education, Baccalaureate and Beyond 2009 (B&B:09)
Counterfactual Method for Estimating Effects of Population Distributions • Recalculate transfer borrowing as a weighted average of subgroup averages given native student population distribution statistics • Difference between actual and hypothetical is an estimate of the effect of disparate population distributions • CBLt=∑ i(Wi,n)(Bi,t) • “The counterfactual borrowing level for transfer students equals the sum for all income groups (in this case) of the weight (%) of a group for native students multiplied by average borrowing for that group for transfer students” • CBLt(public)= $20,959 CBLt(private)=$29,363 • Actual public= $21,121 Actual private=$29,961 • Suggests possible influence of lower incomes for transfer students at only public institutions; however, no control for covariates & other factors
Counterfactual Method- Most significant results • Better prepared private transfers go to higher priced schools, take on more debt • Private transfers experience half the “savings premium” of lower cost schools vs. native students
Factors without Apparent Effect • Race/ethnicity: Transfer graduates slightly more diverse • Geographic region: Both transferring and debt vary significantly by region, but they aren’t linked. Transfers see better outcomes in the southwest & far west • Housing: Transfer students’ slightly greater tendency to live off-campus had a very minor impact • Sex/gender: Only difference is high borrowing among female transfer students at private institutions due to income disparity • Family type: Transfer students more likely to be married and/or have dependents • Financial aid participation: similar rates • Employment/earnings: Transfers work and earn more • Credits transferred: No apparent relationship to borrowing
Breaking down grant aid • Breakdown by tuition/fees and income showed that transfer students at public institutions receive similar grant funding; transfer students at private institutions tend to receive less grant funding • Breakdown of private institution transfer student’s grant aid by tuition/fees, source, and type • By source: transfers receive similar state and federal grant aid but far less institutional aid • By type: transfers receive less need aid (except most expensive schools) and far less merit aid– this despite significantly lower median incomes • SAT & intensity control changed rates, not amounts
Results of a Simple Regression Model • Regress cumulative borrowing on patterned factors
Results of a Simple Regression Model • CC transfer: $1,500 less borrowing • Attending a private institution: $5,000 more borrowing (while controlling for tuition/fees) • SAT: $5 per point less borrowing • Grants: $0.37 per dollar less borrowing • Time to degree: $68 per month more borrowing • Caveats: associations, not causation • Large amount of unaccounted variability; R2<.15
Regression for transfers only • Private 4-yr enrollment: increase to $5,880 more borrowing (from $5,053) • Grants: increase to $0.71 per dollar less borrowing (from $0.37) • Regression for only private institutions showed higher borrowing for transfers, but not statistically significant (sampling issues)
Conclusions • All else equal, starting at a CC is associated with less borrowing • All else is not equal; demographic, behavioral, and institutional differences contribute to higher borrowing for transfers • Demographic and behavioral factors more influential at publics • Institutional factors more influential at privates • Transfers receive similar grants at publics • Transfers receive significantly lower grants at privates, even when controlling for other factors
Student/counseling implications • New argument against “undermatching”: initial 4-yr enrollment carries bigger rewards, lower risks, and (often) similar/lower debt • However, overmatching may be worse for many who would’ve enrolled in a CC • Old message: finish on time, make sure credits transfer • New messages: caution with transfer to private institutions; apply to multiple colleges; try to get financial aid letters before enrollment
Policy implications • Policy infrastructure for transfer needs reform • Emphasis on articulations, robust academic & financial support/advising for transfers, & need-based grant aid at 4-years • Course flexibility (scheduling, online, etc.) and 60 credit cap for associate degrees • Aid flexibility, not time restrictions • Enhanced oversight, accountability, and/or incentives for transfer outcomes at 4-yr’s • Transfers must be explicitly included in efforts to improve outcomes for higher risk students
Look for this report in Fall 2013 at www.tgslc.org/research Jeff Webster Assistant Vice-president Research and Analytical Services, TG jeff.webster@tgslc.org