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MIDDLE EAST JET FUEL CONFERENCE (MEJET 2004) 12 – 13 MAY, 2004 JET FUEL TRADING IN THE GULF REGION

MIDDLE EAST JET FUEL CONFERENCE (MEJET 2004) 12 – 13 MAY, 2004 JET FUEL TRADING IN THE GULF REGION. 5. PRESENTED BY : ZAKARIA SULAIMAN. CONTENTS. WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH PASSENGER TRAFFIC WORLD AND GULF REGION DEMAND GULF PRODUCTION AND BALANCES GCC COUNTRIES EXPORTS OF JET/KERO

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MIDDLE EAST JET FUEL CONFERENCE (MEJET 2004) 12 – 13 MAY, 2004 JET FUEL TRADING IN THE GULF REGION

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  1. MIDDLE EAST JET FUEL CONFERENCE (MEJET 2004) 12 – 13 MAY, 2004 JET FUEL TRADING IN THE GULF REGION 5 PRESENTED BY : ZAKARIA SULAIMAN

  2. CONTENTS • WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH • PASSENGER TRAFFIC • WORLD AND GULF REGION DEMAND • GULF PRODUCTION AND BALANCES • GCC COUNTRIES EXPORTS OF JET/KERO • JET/KERO BULK AND INTO-PLANE PRICES

  3. SLIDE 1WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH (%) 2000 2003 2005 USA 3.8 2.9 4.0 LATIN AMERICA 4.5 1.0 3.8 W. EUROPE 3.6 0.8 2.4 E. EUROPE 3.8 3.3 4.0 FSU 9.1 6.1 4.6 ATLANTIC BASIN 3.9 2.0 3.4 MIDDLE EAST 5.6 3.7 3.6 ASIA PACIFIC 4.6 3.9 3.7 TOTAL WORLD 4.1 2.5 3.5 SOURCE : PEL

  4. SLIDE 2WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH (%)BY COUNTRY SOURCE : PEL

  5. SLIDE 3PASSENGER TRAFFIC PASSENGERS – KILOMETERS PERFORMED (BILLION) SOURCE : ICAO

  6. SLIDE 4WORLD WIDE AND GCC PASSENGERS TRAFFIC(MILLION) SOURCE : ICAO

  7. SLIDE 5WORLD DEMAND FOR JET FUEL/KERO(MILLION BPD) 2000 2003 2005 ASIA PACIFIC 2.65 2.60 2.74 MIDDLE EAST 0.36 0.36 0.37 ATLANTIC BASIN 3.37 3.25 3.44 TOTAL WORLD 6.38 6.21 6.55 SOURCE : PEL

  8. SLIDE 6GULF REGION DEMAND FOR JET FUEL/KERO(MBPD) 2000 2003 2005 BAHRAIN 8.4 8.9 9.2 IRAN 184.0 168.0 158.0 IRAQ 32.0 35.0 50.0 KUWAIT 11.0 11.3 11.5 OMAN 4.0 4.9 5.3 QATAR 4.0 4.6 4.7 S. ARABIA 55.0 59.2 61.9 UAE 18.0 20.5 22.7 TOTAL GULF 318.0 312.4 323.2 SOURCE : FACTS

  9. SLIDE 7GULF REGION PRODUCTS DEMAND(MBPD) 2000 2003 2005 LPG 379 542 715 NAPHTHA 99 150 209 GASOLINE 698 832 929 KERO/JET 318 312 323 GASOIL 1,055 1,109 1,136 FUEL OIL 651 826 910 OTHERS 127 139 149 TOTAL 3,327 3,911 4,371 SOURCE : FACTS

  10. SLIDE 8POTENTIAL ADDITION OF REFINING UNITS BY 2008 SOURCE : FACTS

  11. SLIDE 9PRODUCTION OF JET FUEL/KERO IN THE GULF REGION(MBPD) 2003 2005 2008 BAHRAIN 52.0 48.1 55.0 IRAN 190.1 182.1 243.9 IRAQ 25.0 48.7 69.5 KUWAIT 193.6 194.1 212.5 OMAN 5.7 12.5 26.1 QATAR 19.3 20.8 33.0 S. ARABIA 185.0 209.0 249.1 UAE 124.5 141.6 160.4 TOTAL GULF 795.2 856.9 1,049.5 SOURCE : FACTS

  12. SLIDE 10JET FUEL/KERO BALANCE IN THE GULF REGION(MBPD) ________________________________________________ PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT ________________________________________________ 2003 795 312 490 2004 798 319 498 2005 857 323 535 2007 948 332 616 2008 1,049 344 706 2010 1,052 358 693 SOURCE : FACTS

  13. SLIDE 11GCC EXPORTS OF JET/KERO SOURCE : GCC SECRETARIATE

  14. SLIDE 12BULK JET FUEL/KERO PRICES SOURCE : PLATTS

  15. SLIDE 13JET/KERO FLOW FROM AG TO CIF NWE & S’PORE(ARBITRAGE) NWE S’PORE AG SOURCE : PLATTS

  16. SLIDE 14JET A-1 INTO PLANE PRICES SOURCE : JET FUEL INTELLIGENCE

  17. SLIDE 15THE REASONS FOR HIGH INTO-PLANEPRICES IN THE GULF REGION 1 - Gulf Region is a thin market in relation to the other major markets 2 - In US, Europe and Asia, volume is a price sensitive (more competition between airports in those major markets). 3 - Prices in major markets are more transparent than the Gulf. Jet Fuel is a commodity fuel whereas the Gulf is not. 4 - More players in the major markets than in the Gulf. 5 - Economic of refinery in the Gulf is tide to one source of crude i.e. M / E crude. Where in Europe, it is mostly influenced by North Sea/IPE Brent crude and in US by WTI / NYMEX. 6 - Refinery margins in the Gulf are poor relative to US, NWE or Far East.

  18. SLIDE 16CONCLUSION Middle East Jet Fuel availability will continue to grow during this decade due to the increase in refinery investment and additional condensate splitting projects. Majority of Jet Fuel export will continue to move to European destinations even if price differentials sometimes does not support such movement. Product movement has been mostly governed by price hedging mechanism from the Gulf into Europe. Those mechanism are tide to expectation of higher price prospective in Europe due to seasonal demand.

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