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The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011

The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011. A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China. Tingting Ma 1,2 , Alan Porter 1 , Jud Ready 1 , Chen Xu 1 ,

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The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011

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  1. The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)12 & 13 May 2011 A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Tingting Ma1,2, Alan Porter1, Jud Ready1, Chen Xu1, Lidan Gao3, Wenping Wang1,2, Ying Guo1,2 1 Georgia Institute of Technology 2 Beijing Institute of Technology 3 Chinese Academy of Sciences

  2. A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Index • Summary • Introduction • Data and methodology • Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) • Conclusion • Acknowledge • References

  3. A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Summary Research Significance • The great uncertainty of new and emerging sciences and technologies • To enhance competitive participants’ technological innovation capability and international competitiveness. Technology Opportunity Analysis Model • Multi-level framework • Patent data Result of Case Study • The most promising pathway to advance DSSCs • Potential organizations that may improve DSSCs technology • Collaboration opportunities • Market forecasting

  4. A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Introduction TOA is proposed by Alan Porter & Michael Detampel • Combing monitoring with bibliometric analysis • To identify emerging technologies for campus-wide strategic planning Morphology Analysis – (Yoon & Park, 2004) • Keywords-based morphology analysis • Patent data • To elicit the definite promising configuration of technology Technology Delivery System - (Wenk and Kuehn, 1977) • Socio-technical systems model • To identify the pivotal elements involved in innovation • Dynamic development processes from R&D to the market

  5. A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Technology Opportunities Analysis R&D opportunities Competitive opportunities Market opportunities R&D analysis Competitive analysis Market analysis Global technology environment Competitive environment Market environment Intelligence information Data and methodology TOA Framework

  6. A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Data Derwent World Patents Index (DWPI) A multi-stage Boolean search strategy • Create main search terms • - a variety of DSSC technical terminology • Enrich those search terms • - different expressions of DSSCs • -closely related technical structures. • Check search terms • -excluding their retrieval overlap with the main search. • Combine the terms and evaluate them • -randomly testing and assessing retrieval results • Further revise our search terms Data cleaning – Vantagepoint software 3079 records from 1991-2010 on DSSCs

  7. A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Methodology R&D analysis • Define technical structure of morphology • Extract keywords and classify them • Technology component analysis Competitive analysis • Assignee-technology analysis • Co-assignee analysis Market analysis • Home countries/family countries matrix • International assignee profiling

  8. A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) R&D analysis • Define technical structure of morphology

  9. A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) R&D analysis • Extract keywords and classify them Dye, dyes, pigment, sensitizer, sensitizers, photosensitizer… Determine which phrases refer to the component technologies Extract keywords which are near those component-related phrases are extracted from the patent abstracts and claims Select those actually technically related keywords with experts Merge phrases that refer to the same thing. Classify them according to experts’ opinion Ruthenium dye, ruthenium complex dye, ruthenium, ruthenium based dye, Ru dye, metal complex dye, metal-complex pigment, N3, N719, organic dye, organicmetallic dye, organic dyes, nature dye, azo dye,azo… Ruthenium dye, metal complex dye, N3, N719, Organic dye, organicmetallic dye,nature dye, azo dye… Metal complex dye: -Ruthenium dye,N3, N719, azo dye… Organic dye -Organicmetallic dye, nature dye, …

  10. A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) Global trend analysis of component technologies

  11. A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) Component technologies analysis of China Technology portfolio map

  12. A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) Countries’ patent ratio on important DSSCs component technologies

  13. A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) Competitive analysis • Green nodes – assignees • Yellow nodes – technologies • Lines link assignees and technologies if they coincide in patents. • Thickness of lines represents occurrences—thicker lines represent a higher count of occurrences. • Most of the organizations are Japanese companies • Three Chinese organizations: CASX, CHSC, and IRIC • CASX - organic dye & gel electrolyte • CHSC - carbon counter-electrode • IRIC - platinum counter-electrode & TiO2.

  14. A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Co-Assignee map in China Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) Competitive analysis • Assignee-technology analysis on dye • Co-Assignee map in China

  15. A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) Market analysis • Home countries/family countries matrix Top assignees of China that have applied for patents abroad

  16. A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China China’s technology opportunities on DSSCs R&D opportunities • TiO2 - organic dye - gel electrolyte - platinum counter electrode predict to be the most promising pathway of DSSCs in recent future. • Enhancing competitiveness by developing organic dye, gel electrolytes and platinum counter-electrodes Competitive opportunities • CAS Changchun Applied Chemical Institution is the most potential organization. • Strengthen collaboration with the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne • Keep seeking more cooperation with global leading organizations • Continuously seeking and producing new, practical, and efficient dyes Market opportunities • China’s near-future market will be focused mainly in the home country. • Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) for country side. • China has an especially strong capability in dye research

  17. A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China China’s challenges on DSSCs • Japan and South Korea is the most potential competitive in future market and is on the way of commercialization • China still has a long way to go for significant commercialization of DSSCs globally • It is important to encourage more companies to become involved in DSSCs. • China might also consider ways to promote collaboration between companies and academic institutions.

  18. A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Tips • This research implements a special in-depth analysis on DSSCs’ component technologies rather than more “macro” analyses. • The keywords selection and classification is challenging but benefits from inputs by knowledgeable colleagues. • It is important to carefully identify technology morphology with experts according to the purpose of that analysis.

  19. A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Acknowledgements • This research was undertaken at Georgia Tech drawing on support from the National Science Foundation (NSF) through the Center for Nanotechnology in Society (Arizona State University; Award Numbers 0531194 and 0937591) and the Science of Science Policy Program—“Measuring and Tracking Research Knowledge Integration” (Georgia Tech; Award No. 0830207). • The findings and observations contained in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.

  20. A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China References • Porter, A.L., and Detampela, M.J. (July 1995). Technology opportunities analysis, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 49(3): 237-255  • Porter, A.L., and Cunningham, S.W. (2005). Tech Mining: Exploiting new technologies for competitive advantage. New York: Wiley. • Trappey, C.V., Wua, H.-Y., Taghaboni-Duttab, F., and Trappey, A.J.C. (January 2011). Using patent data for technology forecasting: China RFID patent analysis. Advanced Engineering Informatics, 25(1): 53–64. • Roper, A.T., Cunningham, S.W., Porter, A.L., Mason, T.W., Rossini, F.A., and Banks, J. Forecasting and management of technology. New York: John Wiley. • Porter, A.L., Youtie, J., Shapira, P., Schoeneck, D.J. (2008). Refining search terms for nanotechnology. Journal of nanoparticle research, 10(5): 715–728 • Wenk, E. Jr. and Kuehn, T. J. (1977). Interinstitutional networks in Technological Delivery Systems, in: J. Haberer (Ed.), Science and Technology Policy (pp. 153–175), Lexington, MA: Lexington Books. • Oregan, B. and Gratzel, M. (October 1991). A low-cost, high-efficiency solar-cell based on dye-sensitized colloidal TiO2 films. Nature, 353(6346): 737–740. • Yoon, B.and Park, Y. (February 2005). A systematic approach for identifying technology opportunities: keyword-based morphology analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72(2): 145–160 • Martínez, C. (6 June 2010). Patent families: When do different definitions really matter? Scientometrics, 86(1): 39–63. • Yuhang, K. and Jingqin, S. (August 2008). Visualization identify of technology innovation opportunities: empirical analysis based on patent bibliometric. Studies in Science of Science, 26(4): 695-699 • Solar & Energy (March 2011). DSSC Technology Trend and Market Forecast (2008~2015). Available at http://www.solarnenergy.com/research_file/656983.pdf (Accessed on 4 April, 2011). • Propp, T. and Rip, A. (unpublished). Assessment tools for the management of new and emerging science and technology: state-of-the-art and research gaps. • Grätzel, M. (2009). Recent advances in Sensitized Mesoscopic Solar Cells. Accounts of Chemical Research, 42(11): 1788–1798. • Jose, R., Thavasi, V., and Ramakrishna, S. (February 2009). Metal oxides for Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells. Journal of the American Ceramic Society, 92(2): 289–301.

  21. A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China THANK YOU Welcome any guidance

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