1 / 45

HAMA 2 October 2009

HAMA 2 October 2009. Bobby Bowers Smith Travel Research / STR Global. Global / U.S. Overview Chain Scales Markets Pipeline 2009 / 2010 Forecast. Presentation Outline. Want a copy of the presentation? Have questions about the presentation?. bobby@smithtravelresearch.com

alyn
Download Presentation

HAMA 2 October 2009

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. HAMA2 October 2009 Bobby BowersSmith Travel Research / STR Global

  2. Global / U.S. Overview Chain Scales Markets Pipeline 2009 / 2010 Forecast Presentation Outline

  3. Want a copy of the presentation? Have questions about the presentation? bobby@smithtravelresearch.com www.strglobal.com 615.824.8664 x3321

  4. Global RevPAR % Change August 2009 YTD Europe € H1 08 YE 08 09 YTD -0.4% -5.1% -19.4% UK £ H1 08 YE 08 09 YTD 2.5% -0.4% -11.1% Asia Pacific $ H1 08 YE 08 09 YTD 12.5% 1.8% -28.4% United States $ H1 08 YE 08 09 YTD 1.6% -1.9% -18.3% ME & A $ H1 08 YE 08 09 YTD 25.7% 17% -15.9%

  5. Total United StatesKey Performance Indicators Percent ChangeFull Year 2008 / August 2009 YTD

  6. Total United StatesWeekday / Weekend Percent ChangeAugust 2009 YTD Weekends = Friday / Saturday

  7. Total United StatesQuarterly RevPar Percent Change / 2007 - 2Q 09

  8. Total United StatesRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2009 3.1% -1.1% - 4.8% -6.6% 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

  9. Total United StatesOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2009 0.1% -3.4% -4.7% -6.3% -6.8% -9.5%

  10. Total United StatesRevPAR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2009 - 15.1% -10.5% 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

  11. Chain Scales

  12. Luxury – Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont Upper Upscale – Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, Sheraton Upscale – Courtyard, Springhill Suites, Crowne Plaza Midscale with F&B – Holiday Inn, Best Western, Quality Midscale no F&B – Hampton, TownePlace, H.I. Express Economy – Days Inn, Red Roof, Econolodge STR Chain ScalesSelected Brands by Category

  13. Chain ScalesSupply/Demand Percent ChangeAugust 2009 YTD

  14. Chain ScalesOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeAugust 2009 YTD

  15. Chain ScaleOccupancy PercentAugust 2009 YTD

  16. Chain ScalesAverage Daily Rate August 2009 YTD

  17. United States – Upper Tier Hotels28 Day Moving Average Group & Transient Demand % ChangeJan 31, 2008 – September 26th, 2009

  18. United States – Upper Tier Hotels28 Day Moving Average Group & Transient ADR % ChangeJan 31, 2008 – September 26th, 2009

  19. Total U.S. RevPAR - Monthly Percent ChangeJanuary 2008 – September 2009 2008 2009 September based on reporting through 9.26

  20. Total U.S.Average Daily Rate - Monthly Percent ChangeJanuary 2008 – September 2009 2008 2009 September based on reporting through 9.26

  21. Total U.S.Occupancy - Monthly Percent ChangeJanuary 2008 – September 2009 2008 2009 September based on reporting through 9.26

  22. Market Performance

  23. Top 25 Markets versus rest of U.S.Key Performance Indicators Percent ChangeAugust 2009 YTD

  24. Key 15 MarketsRevPar Percent ChangeAugust YTD 2009 Excludes Las Vegas

  25. 15 Markets outside the Top 25RevPar Percent ChangeAugust YTD 2009

  26. Pipeline

  27. Total United StatesActive Development Pipeline - RoomsChange From Prior Year Aug 2009 Aug 2008 Change % Chg In Construction 130,471 195,947 -65,476 -33.4% “Planned” Pipeline 345,050 463,843 -118,793 -25.6% Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline

  28. Total U.S.Hotel Rooms Under Construction and Percent ChangeJanuary 2003 –August 2009 Under Construction room percentage change measured against same month, prior year.

  29. Total United StatesRooms Under Construction by Scale – In ThousandsAugust 2009 Source: STR / Dodge Construction Pipeline

  30. Top Brands – Rooms Under ConstructionAugust 2009 – in Thousands Top 10 brands = 45% U.S. under construction rooms

  31. Top 10 MSAs – Rooms Under ConstructionAugust 2009 – in Thousands 39% of all under construction rooms

  32. Top 10 MSAsRooms Under Construction - % Existing SupplyAugust 2009

  33. Projections

  34. 20082009F2010F Real GDP +0.4% -2.6% +2.4% CPI +3.8% -0.5% +1.8% Corporate Profits -11.8% -8.1% +9.8% Disp Personal Income +0.5% +0.8% +1.7% Unemployment Rate 5.8% 9.2% 9.8% U.S. Economic OutlookBlue Chip Economic Indicators – September 2009

  35. Total U.S.Hotel Rooms Sold vs. Real GDP ChangeQuarterly Change – 1988 to 2009 2Q Real GDP and Lodging Demand measured against same quarter, prior year. Real GDP left scale / Rooms sold right scale.

  36. Real GDP Growth ForecastQuarterly Percent Change vs. Same Quarter Prior Year Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators – 10 September 2009

  37. Total United StatesKey Performance Indicators Percent ChangeFull Year 2009 & 2010 Forecast

  38. Total US Industry Consecutive Quarterly DeclinesKey Indicators

  39. Total United StatesSupply, Demand & Occupancy ForecastQ3 2009 – Q4 2010 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

  40. Total United StatesADR, RevPar and Room Revenue ForecastQ3 2009 – Q4 2010

  41. Total United StatesOccupancy Percent2003 – 2010P

  42. Total United StatesAverage Daily Rate 2003 – 2010P

  43. Total US Room Rates Actual vs. Inflation Adjusted 2000 – 2010E If year 2000 ADR had increased by CPI each year…

  44. STR Chain Scale Forecast 2009 2010 SegmentRevPar ChgRevPar Chg Luxury -25.0 / -28.0 -7.0 / -10.0 Upper Upscale -18.0 / -21.0 -1.0 / -4.0 Upscale -16.0 / -19.0 -5.0 / -8.0 Midscale with F&B -12.5 / -15.5 -3.0 / -6.0 Midscale without F&B -10.5 / -13.5 +1.0 / -2.0 Economy -13.0 / -16.0 Flat / -3.0 Forecast produced August 2009

  45. Decline is global Supply growth still an issue Demand declines may be near bottom ADR weakness continues “Less Worse” 2H 2009 Moderate improvement 2010 Meaningful growth anticipated 2011 Takeaways

More Related