Seeds of Dystopia

1. Seeds of Dystopia David Forster Head of Risk

2. Future proofing public services A New World of Risk Global risk trends – which ones will hit us? Key scenarios facing our customers (I’ll pick up shorter term and transformational risk later today). 1 2 Tilden Watson Practice Leader Strategic Risk UK Risk Engineering

3. A question… A New World of Risk Defining your agenda for the next 10 years Tilden Watson Practice Leader Strategic Risk UK As professionals with ownership of risk- which TWO cause you the most concern over the next 5 to 10 years…. And why? Risk Engineering

4. A New World of Risk Are global trends already beginning to hit us and are we factoring these into our risk thinking? Tilden Watson Practice Leader Strategic Risk UK Risk Engineering

5. A New World of Risk Tilden Watson Practice Leader Strategic Risk UK Chinese court orders woman to visit mother Risk Engineering

6. Population demographics in 2025 Number of people age 65+ per every 100 working age individuals 8.0 14.7 36.3 Least developedcountries Emergingcountries Developedcountries 100 years Retirement age (65) 50 years Enter workforce (20) 0 years Source: Data from World Population Prospects: 2010 Revision.New York: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2010

7. Seeds of dystopia • Bulging populations of young people with few prospects • Growing numbers of retirees depending on debt-saddled states (stoking fiscal imbalances) • Expanding gap between rich and poor fuels resentment worldwide • These trends risk undoing the progress that globalization has brought

8. A New World of Risk Tilden Watson Practice Leader Strategic Risk UK Can the body cope with 50C? Risk Engineering

9. Two storms – environmental and economic – are on a collision courseAre countries prepared to manage both fronts? Estimated damage caused by natural disasters (1950–2011) US$ BN – 2011 values General government gross financial liabilities as a percentage of GDP (OECD Total) Debt as % of GDP Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database – www.emdat.net – Université catholique de Louvain – Brussels – Belgium; OECD Economic Outlook No. 92 (database)

10. A New World of Risk Tilden Watson Practice Leader Strategic Risk UK Dalai Lama’s Chinese website hacked and infected Risk Engineering

11. Dark side of connectivity • Our daily lives are almost entirely dependent on connected online systems, making us susceptible to malicious individuals, institutions and nations that increasingly have the ability to unleash devastating cyber attacks remotely and anonymously

12. A New World of Risk Tilden Watson Practice Leader Strategic Risk UK Antibiotics resistance ‘as big a risk as terrorism’ Risk Engineering

13. The antibiotic discovery void

14. Part 1: Global risk reportWorld Economic Forum A New World of Risk Tilden Watson Practice Leader Strategic Risk UK • Over 1,000 experts consulted • Top fifty risks • Seventh year • Considers direction of travel • Considers interconnectivity • www.weforum.org Risk Engineering

15. Economic risks, concerns over food, water and resources, and climate change and weather events continue to be top ranked risks Top rated risks in the 2013 Global Risks Report Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological Major systemic financial failure Water supply crises Chronic fiscal imbalances Extreme volatility in energy and agricultural prices Failure of climate change adaptation Food shortage crises Severe income disparity Global governance failure Impact if the risk were to occur Chronic labour market imbalances Failure of diplomatic conflict resolution Mismanagement of population aging Rising religious fanaticism Persistent extreme weather Unsustainable population growth Cyber attacks Likelihood to occur over the next ten years Source: World Economic Forum, Global Risks 2013

21. Top five global risks Chronic Fiscal imbalances A New World of Risk Water supply crisis Tilden Watson Practice Leader Strategic Risk UK Rising greenhouse gases Risk Engineering Severe income disparity Failure of climate change adaptations

22. National risk register of Civil Emergencies Quick comparison of top risks A New World of Risk Pandemic Influenza Severe gas rich volcanic eruption Tilden Watson Practice Leader Strategic Risk UK Catastrophic terrorist attack Risk Engineering Coastal flooding Cold weather / hot weather Space weather

23. 80% of the top risks will hit public services over time… A New World of Risk Mismanagement of population ageing Cyber attacks Tilden Watson Practice Leader Strategic Risk UK Persistent extreme weather Risk Engineering

24. Part 2: Local risk perceptionsThere are no rights or wrongs A New World of Risk Tilden Watson Practice Leader Strategic Risk UK Risk Engineering Harold Camping Consulted the bible End of the world 21 – May 2011 The Mayans Consulted the sun “Great cycle reaches long count” End of the world 21 – Dec 2012 Head to Pic de Bugarach Hanna Rosin

25. What our customers tell us Top five risk themes across sectors A New World of Risk Local Government Housing Higher Education Health Third Sector Finance viability Welfare reform Financial Funding Funding Contract commissioning Welfare reform Mergers & Acquistion Governance Research Finance plan viability Reputation Public Health I.T infrastructure Student No’s Information Information Delivery models Partnership / supply chain Reputation Change implement Environmental New areas of activity Skills Facilities

26. …and finally Any questions, please?? I’ll pick up the shorter term and Transformational agenda risks later in the day……. Tilden Watson Practice Leader Strategic Risk UK Risk Engineering