THE FUTURE OF AUDIENCE RESEARCH

1. THE FUTURE OF AUDIENCE RESEARCH

2. A STRANGE BUSINESS Usually a business knows what it has produced, traded and delivered ,from its internal information sources We depend on a survey to provide the market with that information It is usually as high a quality survey as can be afforded BUT It is still only a survey combining research, statistics and technology

3. WHY DO WE DO THIS? It is valuable for broadcasters to know how they are performing BUT We would not have systems of this size , complexity and accuracy if we did not need a trading currency

4. WHAT DO YOU NEED FOR A TRADING CURRENCY? • You need some numbers that parties to the trade can have sufficient confidence in as a measure of reality to be able to trade • Accuracy is nice but not obligatory

5. This is Not a New Issue

6. OUR JOURNEY

7. It was straightforward • People only watched television on television sets • Relatively little viewing took place outside of private homes • There was an existing accepted trading model and currency using ratings and impacts • These could be measured by metered panels • Virtually all televisions could be metered • So a single reliable measurement could provide the comprehensive currency

8. The Television environment got more complicated • improved definition • and then High Definition • digital as well as analogue • off-air, cable and satellite • colour • more channels • still more channels • VCR's and then PVR's

9. But…Viewing was still confined to television sets so the existing measurement and currency could amend and cope

10. Then came the Internet

11. Others forecast the decline of television

12. The truth is otherwiseThe internet plus more screens, more types of screen and in more locations expand viewing opportunities and have increased viewing

13. SO WHAT HAS CHANGED? • Far from being in decline as some forecast, television has exploded onto screens of all types and sizes and all over the place • Fragmentation means that the actual size of what we are aiming to measure gets smaller and smaller

14. Existing measurement systems can cope with live and playback television delivered to television sets via the internet So the issue is not about the internet but about screens that cannot be metered in the usual way With VOD the issue is more likely to be about the internet as well as the screen

15. This is not about the future but the present • Television viewed on television sets continues to be measured and traded as before • Television delivered via the internet tends to be traded with the rest of the internet using clicks/hits/return path data • There tend to be two currencies with their own structures, organisations and operations • So going to one currency would involve changing existing trading behaviour

16. Software meters and existing panels are a suggested solution but: • are they able to provide a comprehensive measurement to existing quality standards? • what about sample size limitations? • and respondent compliance? • Compared to the census of return path data have we reached the limits of what metered panels of affordable and practicable size can do?

17. DECISIONS • Business decisions • Research decisions • The former should precede the latter • The latter should be able to meet the former’s needs

18. TWO QUESTIONS • What is television? • What is viewing?

19. FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS • What do you want/need to measure? • And how well?

20. WHAT IS TAM/JIC FOR ? • To measure viewing on domestic television sets? • To measure all viewing of television broadcasters’ output? • To measure all audio-visual viewing?

21. BUSINESS QUESTIONS • How big and important will viewing at home not on television sets become?How much effort, cost and upheaval is worth it? • How important will it be for all television to be planned/traded with a single currency? • Will fragmentation force change? • If the TAM JIC does not extend its measurement will the credibility of the television currency suffer? • What about out-of-home? Does trading audio-visual with return path data including out-of-home viewing open/reopen the issue for viewing on televisions? • How will television viewing and airtime trading fit within total audio-visual? Do we need to distinguish broadcaster output from other audio-visual on the internet? If so, how and what about our material on third party sites? • If the market retains separate measurements for viewing on television sets and via the internet how will it deal with any possible double counting?

22. The Importance of Timing

23. Timing The case of BARB and playback

24. Timing The case of BARB and playback

25. Timing Wait for developments and then act Pro- • Does not waste effort and cost Con- • May suffer losses because of unmeasured viewing Prepare for whatever may happen Pro- • Ready for what happens when it does Con- • Wasted effort and resource if it does not happen

26. TIMING This time we’re all in this together

27. A POINT ABOUT TIMING • In the past when new developments were taking place, decisions about measurement had to be made without good information • Now RPD may give us a guide as to how big the unmeasured may be and so help in deciding what to do about it

28. HAVE WE TAKEN PANELS AS FAR AS THEY CAN GO?

29. PANELS • Panels have been at the core of measuring television audiences • Panels have provided us with reasonably reliable and accurate data and allowed for measurement of behaviour over time • Panel sizes have tended to increase

30. PANELS BUT • Average home sizes have fallen so total panel individuals may not have increased by much • The variety of homes to be represented in terms of socio-demographic and television characteristics has grown • Channel choice has exploded and audiences have fragmented • Aggregation helps but the statistical reliability of our measurements has generally declined and continues to do so • Even if all screens of all types could be metered, for how much longer can we pull ‘the trick’ off?

31. PANELS BUT • Average home sizes have fallen so total panel individuals may not have increased by much • The variety of homes to be represented in terms of socio-demographic and television characteristics has grown • Channel choice has exploded and audiences have fragmented • Aggregation helps but the statistical reliability of our measurements has generally declined and continues to do so • Even if all screens of all types could be metered, for how much longer can we pull ‘the trick’ off?

32. PANELS • Why not increase panel sizes? • Generally at the levels of current panel sizes increases in those sizes and costs bring disproportionately small statistical improvements • Panels will always be relatively costly even if there was some cost cutting technical breakthrough in panel operations and meter technology and there is no sign of that • People’s co-operation and compliance are at best not improving

33. PANELSWHAT IS TO BE DONE? • Spend mega €’s more, maybe just to stand still? • Live with it? • Accept a gradual continuation of decline in accuracy? • Think outside of ‘the box’

34. RETURN PATH DATA • Can television become more like other businesses and use its own internally generated data as a measure and currency or an ingredient for that? • It is likely that it is the smallest channels and viewing events (those most disadvantaged by our panels ) whose audiences mostly or totally would be able to generate RPD because of the platforms that carry them

35. RPD • Use them! • Easily said BUT • Need to be reliable/Be real opportunities for a person to see • Need to be measured in a way that can align with existing measures • Need to be measured consistently by all parties

36. PANELS AND RPD PANELS • Tell us about people’s characteristics and behaviour • Limited by sample size RPD • Limited by only telling us about machines • But can have the advantage of census quality data CAN WE BRING THE TWO TOGETHER TO ENJOY THE BENEFITS OF BOTH AND AVOID THE DRAWBACKS OF EACH?

37. OOH • Does this all reopen the issue of measuring and trading out-of-home viewing? • Measurement was never going to be straightforward and would still not be • But there are more people not living in private households covered by TAM panels • And more viewing taking place by residents of private households outside of such households • And trading some other media and specifically the Internet includes out-of-home

38. THE RESEARCH AGENCIES • Comscore; GFK; Kantar; Nielsen • Start from different places • Comscore and Nielsen start with on-line panels and are moving towards audio-visual to a TAM detailed level • GFK and Kantar start with TAM measurements and move towards the on-line • Nielsen-a foot in both silos • All are working on how to measure audio-visual on non-television screens and how to integrate that with TAM data • Software meters-issues with types of equipment/delivery such as apps • Broadcasters need to ‘mark’ output • How to personalise RPD • How to integrate data

39. KANTAR MEDIA • Virtual meter • Kantar limited action in UK/BARB…but now • RPD • Data integration-Not yet • Total meter

40. GFK • TAM operator • Software meter • Active projects • Using RPD but not for television currency • Not yet integrating data

41. COMSCORE • One of the two leaders in on-line panels and measurements. Media Metrix. • No TAM involvement • Hold UKOM contract in UK and planning to include audio-visual • In USA with ESPN integrating television viewing data with on-line data • Open to working with TAM operators

42. NIELSEN • A foot in both camps: TAM and on-line panels • On-line products. On-line Campaign Ratings. • Working across options including panels, software meters, RPD, STB data, integrating data sources

43. IN THE UK • BARB is now actively engaged in developments • Virtual Meter: Now in some 800 panel homes • Beyond 7 day playback • RPD-Project Dovetail

44. BACKGROUND TO VIRTUAL METER • Television has spread to other screens • Follow the viewers • So the metered panel needs to do the same

45. THE VIRTUAL METER-TECHNICAL SIDE • Another software meter: can do it all • But mimics the set meter: sound activated/concentrates on television • Log Panel members only • Audio match (+ web address) • Broadcasters may need to code • Not (yet) all kinds of screen and operating system • Need to identify the signal

46. THE VIRTUAL METER-RESEARCH SIDE • Existing panel: need for agreement and compliance. What if not? Panel upheaval and cost (tail wagging dog) • New panel: need for agreement and compliance. What if not? Recruitment rates, representativeness, costs.

47. THE VIRTUAL METER-SAMPLE SIZE • The size of the metered television panel • Too small for things this small? • Zero, undermeasured, just right or overmeasured-usually not just right • Matters? • Small because it is small • If it was larger it would then be measured more accurately • Data integration

48. THE VIRTUAL METER-DATA • What will be reported? • What do you do with them? • Too small? Too soon? • Everything correctly identified? Wrong? Other data wrong? All wrong?

49. PROJECT DOVETAIL • Co-ordinate the collection of consistent (same tagging) player data from major broadcasters • Report • Integrate with panel data

50. PROJECT DOVETAIL • Co-ordinate the collection of consistent (same tagging) player data from major broadcasters • Report • Integrate with panel data