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Arizona Board of Regents Report on the First Workshop for the ABOR 2020 Strategic Plan

This report highlights the outcomes of the ABOR 2020 Strategic Plan Workshop, including the use of Decision Theater tools for analyzing scenarios and stakeholder input. The report also provides details on future model development and data collection processes.

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Arizona Board of Regents Report on the First Workshop for the ABOR 2020 Strategic Plan

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  1. Board of Regents Meeting March 6-7, 2008 Agenda Item #4 Arizona Board of Regents Report on the First Workshop for the ABOR 2020 Strategic Plan The Decision Theater Tim Lant, Ph.D., Director March 6, 2008

  2. Decision Theater tools for the ABOR 2020 Strategic Plan • Decision Theater objectives Create a visual interface for the NCHEMS Student Flow Model to allow the Board • of Regents to use the tool for analyzing scenarios. Augment the model with better use of demographics, enrollment, and target degree • production for continued policy analysis. Develop stakeholder processes to include input from K-12 system, community • colleges, Governor’s P-20 Council, and other policy-makers. Support Regents and ABOR staff during the creation of the ABOR 2020 Strategic • Plan.

  3. Decision Theater tools for the ABOR 2020 Strategic Plan • Key events December 6, 2007: initial presentation of Student Flow Model to Arizona Board of • Regents in Decision Theater. February 22, 2008: Stakeholder Workshop at Decision Theater. • March 6, 2008: presentation of workshop results to ABOR at Board meeting. • March 25, 2008: ABOR Technical Advisory Group meeting with Patrick Kelley • (NCHEMS). June 2008: Complete Student Flow Model—Host Regents at Decision Theater to review • July 2008: Complete Student Flow Model Review • • August, 2008: Finalize Arizona University System’s 2020 Strategic Plan

  4. The Workshop:

  5. The Workshop:

  6. Breakout Sessions: Picture : 6300, 6302, 6309

  7. Attendees: Robert Bulla, ABOR Regent Michael Hunter, Arizona State Senate April Osborn, Arizona Commission for Postsecondary Education Fred Boice, ABOR Regent Mike Proctor, University of Arizona Darcy Renfro, Office of the Governor Ernest Calderón, ABOR Regent Lauren Kielsmeier, Office of the Governor Debra Raeder, P-20 Council Kathy Boyle, Arizona Community College Association Representative Chad Campbell, House of Representatives Christy Farley, Northern Arizona University Representative Jennifer Burns, Arizona House of Representatives Ron Shoopman, Southern Arizona Leadership Erin Hart, Office of the Governor Vicki Balentine, State Board of Education Vince Yanez, State Board of Education Karen Nicodemus, Cochise College Jim Zaharis, Greater Phoenix Leadership Rhian Evans-Allvin, Brecon Group Senator Tom O’Halleran, Arizona State Senate Michael Crow, Arizona State University James Horton, Yavapai College Rufus Glasper, Maricopa Community College Roy Flores, Pima Community College

  8. Workshop Goals 1. Begin open, transparent process of ABOR planning efforts—create awareness of the planning. 2. Elicit feedback about the data, assumptions, models, and scenarios. 3. NOT to make any decisions. 4. Assess the adequacy of information and processes to guide the 2020 Strategic Plan. 5. Guide future model and scenario development. 6. Guide additional data collection and analysis. 7. Provide direction for the technical working group. 8. Create awareness that models will be available to all

  9. Stakeholder Workshop at the Decision Theater 1. Workshop Agenda: 1. Introduce Higher Education Stakeholders to the ABOR planning process. 2. Review Student Flow Model and prioritize factors for inclusion in future model development. 3. Gather feedback about model assumptions, scenarios, and data requirements from participants during breakout sessions. 4. Discuss potential planning scenarios. February 22, 2008

  10. Scenarios

  11. Student Flow Model assessment Participants viewed the student flow model and received a briefing on its basic functionality. Following the model introduction, participants provided feedback about the model itself. Specifically, they were asked to evaluate the model for clarity and data inputs. Over 75 statements were generated providing input to ongoing model development.

  12. Assessment of the Student Flow Model: Key Themes 1. Volume and complexity of the data 2. Understanding of what drives the model assumptions and inputs 3. Relationship of data 4. Behavior of institutions and public groups, students, teachers 5. Refining definitions of growth 6. Needs demographics and migration information 7. Economic implications 8. Defining inputs and variables 9. Educational quality and degree attainment 10. Next steps

  13. Required Model enhancements 1. More precise data-definitions: 1. Transfer students and transfer rates 2. First-time freshmen vs. full-time equivalent students 3. Participation rates 4. Retention rates 2. Additional data requirements 1. Migration rates 2. Baseline and transfer data for Community College’s 3. College affordability 4. Cost of implementation of programs to achieve targets 5. Cost of operating system at current and future enrollment levels ?

  14. Required Model enhancements 3. More precise modeling 1. Effects of demographic changes 1. Race & ethnicity 2. Population change/migration 3. County-level demographics 2. Transfers from community college to 4-year colleges 3. Budget & financing

  15. What did we learn from the Workshop? Several critical items must be considered during the planning process independently of the Student Flow Model: 1. 2. 3. 4. Need to clarify role of Community Colleges and private institutions. Study the system’s capacity for growth. Review the need to maintain quality while expanding enrollments. Strategic plan needs to incorporate needs of future students—alternative delivery, rural issues, language proficiency, cultural issues, etc. Research and community service are important elements of what universities provide for the state—need to articulate better the benefits. Need to understand the costs of specific target goals. 5. 6.

  16. What did we learn from the Workshop? 1. Most agreed that reaching for “gold” scenario is best, but maybe optimistic—need more data on costs, achievability. Resource challenges must be dealt with—more financial aid, more tuition revenue and also more state funds will be needed. Better collaboration between and among universities, community colleges, K-12 schools and private institutions will be important. Early childhood, early intervention in K-12 will be key to success. Improvements must be made on articulation, college pathways, barriers to transfer, and possibly governance. Accountability in the system for the dollars already available should be evident. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

  17. Next steps Decision Theater project timeline: March: ABOR to assemble Technical Advisory Group. • March: Meeting at Decision Theater to review Feb 22 meeting and agree to data- • collection needs and model specification. April: DT participate in statewide educational statistics meeting. • April - June: model development. • June: Stakeholder model review held at Decision Theater. • June - August: ABOR to create 2020 Strategic Plan using the model. • Deliverables: Updated model for use in Decision Theater. • Technical advisory group meetings (3) in DT. • Stakeholder model review in DT. •

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