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Implications of Climate Change for Drought and Wildfire Dr. Faith Ann Heinsch

Implications of Climate Change for Drought and Wildfire Dr. Faith Ann Heinsch Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group University of Montana Wildland Fire Leadership Council Red Lodge, Montana June 20, 2007. WEATHER: Meteorological conditions of the next Day – Month

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Implications of Climate Change for Drought and Wildfire Dr. Faith Ann Heinsch

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  1. Implications of Climate Change for Drought and Wildfire Dr. Faith Ann Heinsch Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group University of Montana Wildland Fire Leadership Council Red Lodge, Montana June 20, 2007

  2. WEATHER: Meteorological conditions of the next Day – Month CLIMATE: Long term conditions of the Meteorology over Years – Decades

  3. Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 50 0.1280.026 100 0.0740.018 Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Period Rate Years /decade

  4. Drought is increasing most places Mainly decrease in rain over land in tropics and subtropics, but enhanced by increased atmospheric demand with warming The most important spatial pattern (top) of the monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1900 to 2002. The time series (below) accounts for most of the trend in PDSI.

  5. Increase in Hurricane Intensity PDI = Potential Destructiveness Index Emanuel, Nature 4 August 2005

  6. Arctic sea ice gets thinner

  7. Photo by W.C. Alden, USGS 1913 Photo by B. Reardon, USGS 2005 Shepard Glacier - Glacier National Park

  8. OBSERVED BIOSPHERIC RESPONSES

  9. Change in Terrestrial NPP from 1982 to 1999. Nemani et al., Science June 6th 2003

  10. Wildfires accelerate 1970 – 2003with early snowmelt, longer, drier summers Westerling et al Science 2006, Running, Science 2006

  11. Climate Science in the Public Interest Decrease Increase Mote 2003(b)

  12. Trends in timing of spring snowmelt (1948-2000) +20d later –20d earlier Courtesy of Mike Dettinger, Iris Stewart, Dan Cayan

  13. Land Water Balance Tipping Points(Growing Seasons) 2005 Increasing 1950 Decreasing 2005 Pest Epidemics Wildfire Higher LAI, ET, NPP Forest Mortality Higher Streamflows Low Streamflows Streambank Erosion Reduced Nutrient Cycling Insect-borne diseases Lower NPP Human Health Biodiversity? Improved wildlife habitat? Invasives? Biodiversity?

  14. Flows North to Arctic O. DECLINING RIVER FLOWSColumbia and Missouri Basins Flows West to Pacific O. Flows SE to Gulf Rood et al. J.Hydrology 2005

  15. Naturalized Columbia River Streamflow, The Dalles, OR 30-50% less water in summer Predicted flow in 2050s Present flow 100,000 cubic feet per second Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep More Flow in Winter and Early Spring Earlier Peak Flows

  16. Carroll et al 2004

  17. Spruce forest (S. Alaska) Extended warm period, insects, spruce die, fuels accumulate, large fires, species conversion? Yellow cedar (SE Alaska) Extended warm period, insects, yellow cedar stressed or die. McKenzie 2005

  18. Jemez Mtns 2002 Jemez Mtns 2004

  19. Both Seasons 3C warmer, BUT Winter – wetter Summer – drier IPCC AR4 GCMs

  20. THE S.W. RUNNING CRYSTAL BALL Northern Rocky Mountains: THE NEXT 50 YEARS • EXPECTED CLIMATE TRENDS • Shorter, milder winters • Earlier snowmelt • Longer growing seasons • Decreasing summer streamflows • More drought and fire danger • Precipitation???

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