Implications of Peak Oil for Climate Change

1. Implications of Peak Oil for Climate Change Chris Vernonchris@vitaltrivia.co.uk1st September 2007 Members Conference

2. Peak Oil

3. Climate Change

4. The IPCC (1/1) “Despite the obvious relevance of “peak oil” to future climate change, it has received little attention in projections of future climate change. For instance, in the CO2 emissions scenarios outlined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2000), socioeconomic and technological changes are employed as determinants of future energy use, without explicitly addressing the consequences of peak production of fossil fuels.” Dr James Hansen (2007)

5. The IPCC (2/2)

6. Hansen (1/2) Business As Usual CO2 emissions CO2 concentrations Peak emission 14 GtC/yYear of peak 2077 Peak concentration 580 ppmYear of peak 2100

7. Hansen (2/2) Coal Phase Out CO2 emissions CO2 concentrations Peak emission 10 GtC/yYear of peak 2017 Peak concentration 440 ppmYear of peak 2050

8. Impact on campaigning • Amount of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere from the combustion of oil is proportional to the amount of oil produced. • To reduce the CO2 emissions from oil, the production of oil must be reduced. • Oil production is not significantly determined by demand. Oil: Supply-side limited, notdemand-side Coal: Demand-side

9. Peak Oil: Good News or Bad News? (1/2) IEA Reference Scenario: 121 million barrels per day in 2030

10. Peak Oil: Good News or Bad News? (2/2) 2030 Comparison No Peak Oil Peak Oil 2030 extraction = 121mbpd Some non-conventional Peak in 2010 at 90mbpd Decline at 2% per year 2030 extraction = 60mbpd • Tar Sands: ~4mbpd 2x CO2 8mbpd • Coal to Liquids: ~1mbpd 2x CO2 2mbpd • Gas to Liquids: ~2mbpd 1x CO2? 2mbpd • Biofuels: ~4mbpd 1x CO2 4mbpd Total 121mbpdCO2 equivalent of more Total 71 mbpdCO2 equivalent of 76 mbpd

11. 31% cut in CO2 emissions in 5 years "In 1992, the first full year after the demise of the USSR, Russian carbon dioxide emissions stood at 573.5 million tonnes, but by 1997 had fallen to 394.7 million tonnes - a 31 per cent decline in just five years.“ Dr Mark A Smith

12. Coal http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2726 Five reports this year: Coal: Resources and Future Production- Energy Watch Group (March)“Production profile projections suggest the global peak of coal production to occur around 2025 at 30 percent above current production in the best case.” The Future of Coal & Coal of the Future- for European Commission Joint Research Centre (February)“...the world could run out of economically recoverable (at current economic and operating conditions) reserves of coal much earlier than widely anticipated.” Hubbert’s Peak, Question of Coal, and Climate Change- Dr Dave Rutledge, California Inst. of Technology. (June)Coal- The US National Academy of Science (June)“Recent programs to assess coal recoverability in limited areas using updated methods indicate that only a small fraction of previously estimated reserves are actually recoverable.”

13. Conclusions • IPCC don’t consider resource constraints, only “socioeconomic and technological changes”. • Applying realistic constraints prevents the worst case scenario – at least by IPCC mechanisms. • Oil is a supply side limited resource. As such the CO2 in the atmosphere from oil is not effected by addressing the demand side – the only possible way is supply side actions. • Coal is demand side limited so its CO2 impact can be addressed through the demand side (as well as supply side). • There is large scope for action on coal: • reduce demand for electricity • alternative electricity generation • Peak oil is good news for climate change.

14. Backup Slides This pulse response function for anthropogenic CO2 emissions illustrates the proportion of CO2 that remains airborne t years after emissions and looks like this: One-third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere after 100 years and one-fifth after 1000 years.