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The Millennium Project

The Millennium Project. 2012 Planning Committee Meeting The Metropolitan Toronto Hotel, Canada webcast: https://new.livestream.com/MillenniumProjectTV 26 & 27 July 2012. Agenda Thursday July 26, 2012. 9:00 Introductions and Review Agenda 9:30 Recent Accomplishments

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The Millennium Project

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  1. The Millennium Project 2012 Planning Committee MeetingThe Metropolitan Toronto Hotel, Canadawebcast:https://new.livestream.com/MillenniumProjectTV 26 & 27 July 2012

  2. Agenda Thursday July 26, 2012 9:00 Introductions and Review Agenda 9:30 Recent Accomplishments 10:00 Current and Recent Research and Activities 2012 State of the Future 2012 State of the Future Index Changes to Gender Stereotypes 10:45 Break 11:30 Cooperatives 2030 Future of Food Industries - Argentina Global Futures Collective Intelligence Systems Updating Global Challenges, FRM, and previous work Real-Time Delphi - New Improvements Collaborative tools for the Nodes 12:45 Lunch 1:45 Node Highlights 3:45 Break 4:00 Node Highlights 5:00 Adjourn 5:30 Potential Sponsors meeting 7:00 Dinner

  3. Agenda Friday July 27, 2012 9:00 Node Highlights (continued) 10:15 MP information systems 10:45 Break 11:00 Review priorities Fundraising Strengthen Nodes (Nat. SOFI, collaborate research, conf. Educ, Global Futures CIS Promotion Strategy 2012 SOF Promotion, reviews, blogs, launches Futures encyclopedia dictionary 12:45 Lunch 1:30 Create Questions for Group Discussions 2:00 Group Discussions 4:00 Group Discussion Reports 5:30 Final comments by all 6:00 Adjourn 7:00 WFS Conference Opening

  4. Accomplishments • 2012 State of the Future • New Nodes • Global Futures Collective Intelligence System • RTD Studies • Publications • Misc. • USB drive • Download • Print on demand • CD • Kindle • In Global Futures CIS

  5. 46 Millennium Project Nodes... are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in: Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.

  6. New Nodes – New Total 46 Nodes • Romania • Uruguay • South East Europe • Slovenia, Montenegro, Serbia • East Europe Node • Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland • Potentials: • Hungary Denmark Nigeria • Caribbean Sudan (also Southern Sudan) • Costa Rica Guatemala Central America

  7. Global Futures CIS • Interoperable, Searchable, Editable • For each of the 15 Global Challenges • Expert Discussion Groups • Bookmarklet scanning system • Use of RSS News Feeds Aggregator • Key web resources • Situation Chart to update and improve • Short and Long text to update and Improve • Related computer models • Futures Research Methodology • 39 Chapters with groups to update and improve • All previous MP research • Software(Models, Delphi, Futures Wheel, SOFI, Papers, briefings, Video)

  8. Real-Time Delphi Studies • Azerbaijan for AZ-SOFI • Global Trends of Women Stereotypes • Future of Cooperatives 2030 • Future of Agro-Industries • 2012 Global SOFI • Global Futures CIS –Internal MP study • Azerbaijan students' SOFI • Experiments • Pending: Dominican Republic for DR-SOFI • S Africa (?) • Women’s SOFI

  9. Publications Special Issue of Foresight Journal by the Millennium Project (UK) Special Issue of the Journal of Futures Studies Australia Node 15 GC (Taiwan) UN Global Compact annual report chapter on CIS (Mediengruppe Macondo) WFS conference volume – SOFI Referenced and Appendix in UN World Water Development Report Meteorological Information 15 Global Challenges Korean text book Forthcoming Publications Chapter in Future book for BBVA (Spain) Future Media chapter in Journal of Futures Studies (Taiwan) FUTURES dictionary/encyclopedia New Media and Society to use 15 GC, Score Card, Future Arts/Media Collaboration with von der Gracht: RTD Experience, Expertise

  10. Misc.: • Comisión del Futuro, Senate of Chile • Compterworld Magazine Laureate • Tele-nation (Tele-Montenegro) • Discussions with Random House/Crown Group • 15 Global Challenges Curriculum with Malaysia

  11. MP Gets Computerworld Magazine Lauriat Recognition Reid Hoffman Founder of LinkedIn

  12. PRWeb Press Releases • Sept 1 to April 20 there were 23 releases • Averaging: 1,347 reads (30,986 total); • Averaging 72 pickups (1,659 total); • Averaging 239 online interactions (5,492 total) • Write press releases from now until September 1 - unlimited from now until then

  13. 2012 SOFI Highlights • Some variables were replaced • Fresh expert judgments • Historical data were updated • New curve fit equations • TIA developments were revised • Best and worst estimates in equation choice • “Sparkline” sketches

  14. 2012 State of the Future Index

  15. What caused the drop 2003-2008? • The greatest impact came from • The income gap, “Economic income inequality (share of top 1%),” which doubled from earlier values. • Also changing: • R&D expenditures dropped • Percentage of electricity from renewable sources relative to non renewable dropped • The number of people killed or injured in terrorist attacks rose

  16. Where are we winning? • Access to water • Literacy rate • Life expectancy at birth • Poverty $1.25 a day • Infant mortality • Wars • HIV prevalence • Internet users • GDP/capita • Women in parliaments • School enrollment, secondary • Energy efficiency • Population growth • Undernourishment prevalence • Nuclear proliferation

  17. Where is Humanity Winning

  18. Where are we losing? • Total debt • Unemployment • Income inequality • Ecological footprint/ biocapacity ratio • GHG emissions • Terrorist attacks • Voter turnout

  19. Where is Humanity Loosing?

  20. Where there is no significant change or change is not clear • Corruption • Freedom rights • Electricity from renewables • Forest lands • R&D expenditures • Physicians per capita

  21. Equivocal, Little Change

  22. Overly Optimistic

  23. OverlyPessimistic

  24. Too Optimistic

  25. Too Pessimistic

  26. Too Pessimistic

  27. Not Too Pessimistic or Optimistic; Potential Denouements More Likely to Improve Rather than Worsen the Percent

  28. SOFI Research Directions • Expanded uses of User Data • Regional SOFI (public policy, competitiveness) • Improved SOFI computation (e.g.,TIA, expertise, policy opportunities) • RTD Surveys • SOFI Country ranks • Correlation SOFI/ Public opinion polls • Better IFS historical data • Future oriented thinking SOFI (Pavel) • Sectorial, corporate SOFI

  29. 100-Year Gender Stereotypes Changes • Three categories: • Beliefs about gender social and economic equity • Beliefs about woman’s rights • Beliefs about societal and emotional aspects • Three questions about the 39 stereotypes: • Assume opinion poll: is stereotype true.? What percentage would have said they believed it in 1961, in 2011, and in 2016? • What is the role of the media? • What is the respondent’s personal belief?

  30. Decreasingly Believed 1961-2061 • Women must obey and submit to their husband or male companion. • Wives need to be beaten occasionally. • Men should have certain rights that are not available to women. • Men should have priority in access to education.

  31. Increasingly Believed 1961-2061 • Women have the right to decide on issues related to their ow n health and bodies. • Women should have the right to divorce. • Single women manage better than single men. • Equal work deserves equal pay • Women have the right to decide whether and when to have children. • Independent women increase family social status • Women should be included in conflict resolution.

  32. Interesting Relationships

  33. The Future of Food & Agribusiness in Argentina, 2030 Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria & The Millennium Project • 140 questions: • Elements that will impact the future of agribusiness and SMEs • in Argentina and the world • Technologies and policies that could be important for their future development • Institutional limitations • Likelihood of occurrence

  34. Highlights – Future Agribusiness • 19,907 entries • High degree of commonality of the developments judged as having the highest future impact on Argentine agribusiness & SMEs. • public policies which foster technological innovation • long-term strategic planning between the public and private sector • High likelihood of occurring by 2016: • Production be stimulated by higher consumer demands • Regulations adopted to stimulate technological innovation • Quality management systems implemented • Potentially occurring after 2026: • Implementation of long-term strategic planning • Synergistic public-private strategies development • Application of some technologies (e.g. ohmic heating) • Most “never” estimates: “The global economic crisis will reduce the trend of rising food demand.”

  35. Collective Intelligence It is an emergent property from synergies among data/info/knowledge software/hardware experts and others with insight that continually learns from feedback to produce (nearly) just in time knowledge for better decisions than these elements acting alone.

  36. Each can change the other

  37. Global Futures CIS • Interoperable, Searchable, Editable • For each of the 15 Global Challenges • Expert Discussion Groups • Bookmarklet scanning system • Use of RSS News Feeds Aggregator • Key web resources • Situation Chart to update and improve • Short and Long text to update and Improve • Related computer models • Futures Research Methodology • 39 Chapters with groups to update and improve • All previous MP research

  38. Global Futures CIS (continued) • Additional Elements • New Real-Time Delphi 2.0 Software • Node Collaborative Tools • Video conferencing • Papers, briefings, Video • All previous MP Website Information • Internal MPPC RTD on CIS raw data: http://themp.info/rtd/mps_global_futures_collective_intelligence_system_rtd_working_notes/export/report/

  39. Question 1.1 Do you think this approach will improve the ability of The Millennium Project to achieve its mission? • 50: Almost certainly 34%, Very Likely 54%, Not sure 9% • More than just SOF and FRM online, it Increases participation, increases MP information utility • Allows MP to stay on top of change in a more timely manner. • More sustainable than once-a-year reports • Will be used a fundamental resource for research; scanning capability and experience of the global brain • Avoid data soup with easy navigation • What about those who won’t use it? • CDs and print on demand are still possible, but CD uses is falling • Who is the target audience(s) who will be influenced by this approach? How do we create a MP CIS for identifying target users and identifying how to make the CIS even more relevant to target markets?

  40. Will you use it? • 49: Yes 31%, very much 28%, not sure 4% • Access on my smart phone with me all the time, while not using or have SoF with me everyday • Fantastic global brain interaction • Valuable for scanning, updating research, teacher preparation, stimulates thinking • Future-oriented, sustainable, but make it simple or will get info elsewhere.

  41. More Useful that SOF or FRM? • 49: More useful 46%, Much more 24% same 24%, less 4% • SOF/FRM only small part of CIS • Up-to-date characteristics attractive, advantage • Searching everything, RTD, listservs, discussions, better than what we have today • The book is an event, people look forward to, enhances the MP Brand. Many other sources, albeit not as credible, but might be easier for them to feel that they are getting enough 'futures' insight. • Print highlights, journal articles, etc. from the CIS

  42. Will you use it more than SoF/FRM? • 48: More 43%, same 39%, not sure 12%, less 2% • Because everything is searchable

  43. What should we charge per year for full access?

  44. Nodes' Sales and Commissions • 27% Average sales commission • 51% How likely is it your Node will sell it? • Comments: We already sell SOF and FRM now...We would sell an annual access to at least 3 organizations…more than 3 per year…Interest might me more than we anticipate now…Depends on the attractiveness of the site

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