Planning Committee Meeting of the Millennium Project

1. Russian Node Report July 2006 – July 2007 Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Science Russian Node of the Millennium Project 2007 Minnesota, U.S. Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Planning Committee Meeting of the Millennium Project Russian Node Report July 2006- July 2007 DR. Nadezhda Gaponenko Head of Department, Center of Science Development Study under the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences Director, Russian Node of the Millennium Project, AC/UNU Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Moscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, 117485 foresightr@mail.ru

2. Russian Node Report July 2006 – July 2007 Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences Director, Russian Node of the Millennium Project 2007 Minnesota, U.S. Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Planning Committee Meeting of the Millennium Project Projects • Nanotechnology Foresight Methodology • Sectoral Innovation System in Nanotech in Globalized Economy • Foresight : Theoretical and Methodological Foundation • Nanoscience of Russia • Innovation Policy for the Building adoptive SIS in Nanotech • Business Incubators in the National System of Innovation • European Scenarios for the GEO UNEP Global Environmental Outlook (contribution) Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Moscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, 117485 foresightr@mail.ru

3. Russian Node Report July 2006 – July 2007 Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences Director, Russian Node of the Millennium Project 2007 Minnesota, U.S. Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Planning Committee Meeting of the Millennium Project Publications • Nanotechnology : Foresight (ed. N. Gaponenko). Economy & Law Press, Moscow, 2006, pp.265 • Business Incubators in the National System of Innovation (ed. N. Gaponenko). Economy & Law Press, Moscow, 2006, pp.235 • Gaponenko N. “Methods and Tools for Future Exploration and Decision Making in Multidisciplinary and Fast Developing Technological Domain: A Case of Nanotechnology”. Paper presented to the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impact of FTA Approaches on Policy and Decision Making, September 2006 • Gaponenko, N. Russian Nanotech Foresight Initiatives, The European Foresight Monitoring Network, 2006 • Gaponenko, N. Nanoscience : Global & Regional Trends and National Initiatives. In “Science, Innovation and Education”, Parad Press, 2006, pp. 304-320 • Gaponenko, N. Mission of Business Incubators in the National System of Innovation. In Innovations in Russia : Future and The Past, Moscow Univ. Press, 2006 • Small Russian Future Studies Encyclopedia, Moscow, 2006 (contribution) Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Moscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, 117485 foresightr@mail.ru

4. Russian Node Report July 2006 – July 2007 Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences Director, Russian Node of the Millennium Project 2007 Minnesota, U.S. Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Planning Committee Meeting of the Millennium Project Presentations • Gaponenko, N. Global Challenges and Growing Uncertainties, Dialogue West –East, Integration and Development, Moscow, President Hotel, July, 2006 • Gaponenko N. “Methods and Tools for Future Exploration and Decision Making in Multidisciplinary and Fast Developing Technological Domain: A Case of Nanotechnology”. International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impact of FTA Approaches on Policy and Decision Making, September 2006 • Gaponenko, N. Innovation Cycles : Towards the Third Generation of Business Incubators, Kondratieff Conference, Moscow, October, 2006 • Gaponenko, N. Methodology for Nanotechnology Foresight, International Future Academy, March, 2007 • Gaponenko, N. Global Challenges and Regional Strategies, Dialogue West –East, Integration and Development, Delhi, January, 2007 Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Moscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, 117485 foresightr@mail.ru

5. Russian Node Report July 2006 – July 2007 Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences Director, Russian Node of the Millennium Project 2007 Minnesota, U.S. Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Planning Committee Meeting of the Millennium Project Contribution to Millennium Project & Nodes’ Activity • SOFI – Study • Real- time Delphi • Latin America Energy Delphi

6. Suggestions to MP • State of S&T Future Index • Outbreak of Technological Foresight Programs around the world • Scenarios are a part of Foresight Programs; coupled with Delphi • Indicators for scenario quantification is a white sport • Modeling is at the initial stage • Nanotechnology positive & negative impact on economy, environment and human being

7. Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko Global & Regional R&D Expenditures’ Trends Phenomena of R&D expenditure trends in nano • budget R&D expenditures on “nano”grow faster than budget appropriations on R&D • Although nano-market is at the initial stage as far as both basic and applied research are concentrated in public sector corporate R&D expenditures grow faster than the public ones and in North America they exceed the public investments in nanotechnology Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Moscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, 117485 foresightr@mail.ru

8. Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko Corporate R&D expenditures trends in different regions of the world • Phenomena of R&D expenditure trends in nano • Corporate R&D expenditures grow fast in all regions of the world • Share of Asia and in particular “other countries” increases Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Moscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, 117485 foresightr@mail.ru

9. Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko Key Characteristics & Tends in Russian Nanotech SIS • Nanotech are in governmental priorities • R&D on nano -scale are supported by varios national, regional and departmental programs • Special role in civilian R&D financing play Ministry of Science and Education of the RF, Russian Academy of Sciences and in basic research - the Russian Foundation of Fundamental Studies. • Building public-private partnership is in the focus to stimulate private investment in nanotech Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Moscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, 117485 foresightr@mail.ru

10. Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko Key Characteristics & Tends in Russian Nanotech SIS • R&D organizations are concentrated in the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS)(about 40%) • Presidium of the RAS supports 7 interdisciplinary programs and pushes this way the interdisciplinary networks • 10% of R&Dorganizations refer to private sector Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Moscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, 117485 foresightr@mail.ru

11. One may observe the super concentration of R&D capacity in nano-materials Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko Key Characteristics & Tends in Russian Nanotech SIS Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Moscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, 117485 foresightr@mail.ru

12. Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko Specific Characteristics of SIS in Nanotechnology • Emerging, fragmented at the initial stage • With potential huge impact on NIS, structural shifts in economy, national competitiveness • Marked by the institutional gaps, setting up of new firms and non-firm organization, emergence of networks, learning regime and consolidation of technologies • Knowledge dynamic is an engine of SIS formation Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Moscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, 117485 foresightr@mail.ru

13. Knowledge base interdisciplinary cross-sectoral not coherent science field characterized by enormous thematic breadth most important sub-disciplines: applied physics, material science, physical chemistry, physics of condensed matter, chemistry, molecular biology structural shifts from physics towards material science, polymer chemistry and chemistry research on nano-scale are not purely fundamental nor fully applied (use-inspired research) Sectoral R&D system setting up of interdisciplinary nanotechnology centers and centers of excellence around the world expensive scientific infrastructure both basic & applied science is concentrated in public sector consequences of knowledge commercialization (both positive and negative) are not well explored Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Specific Characteristics of SIS in Nanotechnology Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Moscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, 117485 foresightr@mail.ru

14. Technology emerging disruptive science-based technology not coherent field Nano-market emerging & fragmented fast developing In 2005, there were about 1480 companies with significant predominance of USA (about 825 companies), Germany (100) and UK (98) Key players at the world market: SMEs and start- up, R&D organizations and some well known corporations In U.S. – dominance of SMEs and start-up; in EU, Asia and Russia- R&D organizations Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko Specific Characteristics of SIS in Nanotechnology • Networks • interdisciplinary • overlapping Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Moscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, 117485 foresightr@mail.ru

15. Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Building Balanced and Adoptive SIS Common measures implemented around the world • Orientation on institutional gaps • Setting up interdisciplinary research centers • Supporting information infrastructure • Investment in scientific infrastructure • Supporting networks building • Investment in human capacity building (training courses) • Coordination of actions between different departments Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Moscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, 117485 foresightr@mail.ru

16. USA dual oriented technologies and high share of defense sector Orientation on molecular technologies (bottom-up approach) European Union Development of Pan-European Nano – area Patent system Building nanotech platforms Public-private partnership Supporting spin-offs Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Building Balanced and Adoptive SIS(regions’ specific measures) Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Moscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, 117485 foresightr@mail.ru

17. Asia Pacific Nano-standardization initiatives (China) Strong accents on commercialization (Taiwan) Nanotech Roadmaps initiated by corporations (Japan, 2003) Russia Setting-up governmental nano-corporation Latin America Millennium centers supported by World Bank (Brazil) Partnership with Lucent Technology (USA) for commercialization (Argentina) Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko Building Balanced and Adoptive SIS(regions’ specific measures) Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Moscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, 117485 foresightr@mail.ru

18. Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko What drives nano-market and push corporations to invest in nano-scale research? • Market expectations • Growing competition at the electronics market • Aggregation of energy problems ( high prices & call for environmentally friendly technology) • Promise of some social issues solution (cancer, diabetes, early diagnostic, and the like) • Lack of innovations out of “nano”, which potentially could yield significant revenue Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Moscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, 117485 foresightr@mail.ru

19. Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko Russian SIS in Nanotech: institutional set up General Policy making President of the RF Council of Federation State Duma Government Governmental Nanotech Council (2007) Science, Innovation & Technology Policy Formulation and Financing Interdepartmental S&T Council for the Development Nanotechnology &Nanomaterials (2005) Ministry of Finance Atomic Energy Agency Ministry of ICT Ministry of Industry and Energy Ministry of Science& Education Ministry of Defense Russian Space Agency Other Ministry of Economic Affairs Interdepartmental Nanotech Coordination Group (2006) Regional Authorities Financial Infrastructure Private funds International funds Venture Funds Invested in Nanotech (11) Public funds Foundation for Supporting Russian science Russian Foundation for Basic Research International S&T center Russian Foundation for Technological Development ONEKSIM group Foundation Russian Foundation for Promotion of SMEs in S&T Knowledge production Scientific infrastructure Nanotech centers (42) Public R&D organizations Academic research institute (104) Universities (80) Departmental R&D organizations (56) Private R&D Organizations (26) Public Nanotech Corporation Knowledge transfer& commercialization Specialized incubators (2) Center for technology Transfer in Nanotech (12) Sectors of economy 20 spin-offs company Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Moscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, 117485 foresightr@mail.ru

20. Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko Key Characteristics & Tends in Russian Nanotech SIS • Ventura capital investments are still small but are growing fast • ANEKSIM group • Space tech, energy, aircraft Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Moscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, 117485 foresightr@mail.ru

21. Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko Conclusions • SIS in Nanotech is looking for trajectories and is marked by diversity and lacking coherence of nanofield in the current embryonic stage • Althougy nanotech are scince-driven technologies but to some degree they are pushed by existing industry boarder and are path dependent; at the same time they already drive interdisciplinary and crossectoral networks, will change knowledge foundation of NIS, mode of Industry-Academy relation and condition structural shifts in economy • Private sector plays a vital role in emerging SIS; it provides huge contribution to knowledge production; high tech companies push interdisciplinary networks and contribute to the formation of new mode of Academy-Industry relations • Public authorities measures are oriented on the development of information infrastructure, training courses, supporting networks and “filling” institutional gaps in SIS and this way they open the window for private sector • Cultural issues play a significant role in trajectory of SIS development Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko Moscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, 117485 foresightr@mail.ru Institute for Prospective Technological Studies

22. Nanotech Foresight Methods & tools Analytical stage S&M Benchmarking SWOT Exploration of Nanotech future Technology roadmapping Delphi Scenarios S&T platform Strategy Strategic technology Policy mechanisms

23. Delphi for knowledge accumulation and linking science push& demand pullapproaches • Innovation’s users • Importance for • the solution of • social and env. • issues • Cultural barriers • Researches • Nanotech impact • on S&T domains • Possible negative • impact • Scientific & • technical barriers • S&T mechanisms • Spheres of • application • Corporations • Market demand& • market barriers • Spheres of • application • Impact on the • competitiveness • Policy mechanisms • Policy- makers • Public demand • Institutional& • legislative barriers • Policy mechanisms

24. Delphi like a dialogue and learning process Multidisciplinary brainstorming workshop Questionnaire development Round 1 (sending out Quest.) Round 1 (results) Interviews List of experts with radically different judgments Round 2 (Quest. development &sending out) Round 2 results

25. Scenario logic • Identification and mapping key problems, important for the decision making • Driving forces mutual impact exploration • Time scale of events • Social, economic and environmental events • Technological events • Turning points in technological trajectory

26. Time scale of events

27. S&T Platform Normative scenarios Strategic goals Stakeholders workshop trees Benchmarking, SWOT State of the art Strategy background Morphological analyses; stakeholders’ workshop scenarios Stakeholders’ workshop Delphi, scenarios; technological roadmaps Strategic technologies for the programming funding Plan of actions and policy mechanisms Delphi, scenarios Stakeholders’ workshop

28. Methodology is designed: • to link science push and demand pull approaches • to provide dialogue and learning process between different stakeholders • to link future studies with policy- making • to collect the judgments of different stakeholders and innovations’ users for the providing comprehensive assessment of coming nanotechnology • to select nanotechnology for the programming finding • to formulate policy mechanisms like dialogue between different stakeholders as well as the fields for the public- private partnership • to form the information base for the corporations’ strategic planning. The design of Foresight program like a dialogue forms also conditions for the building networks and public- private partnership