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DELTASIM A Land Use Model for the Tampa Bay Region

DELTASIM A Land Use Model for the Tampa Bay Region. Wade L. White, AICP Citilabs, Inc. Agenda. Why develop a land use model? Major elements of the model Data requirements The DELTASIM process Integration with the TBRPM transport model Next Steps. Why Develop DELTASIM.

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DELTASIM A Land Use Model for the Tampa Bay Region

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  1. DELTASIMA Land Use Model for the Tampa Bay Region Wade L. White, AICP Citilabs, Inc.

  2. Agenda • Why develop a land use model? • Major elements of the model • Data requirements • The DELTASIM process • Integration with the TBRPM transport model • Next Steps

  3. Why Develop DELTASIM • Land use and transportation systems continue to develop at a rapid pace in the Tampa Bay region • Transport investments clearly have an impact on land use development potential, timelines and economic competitiveness of the region and vice versa • Quality land use data are finally becoming available at a regional level for all counties

  4. Major Components of DELTASIM • Enumeration- Disaggregate Data Synthesizer • Population • Employer • Group Quarter • Hotel/Motel • School • Accessibility Calculator • Parcel Allocation (1.2 million) • Construction Module • ZDATA Builder

  5. Data Requirements • Population/HH • ZDATA1 • PUMS (Permanent & GQ) • School Inventory • Hotel/Motel Inventory • Employment • ZDATA2 • InfoUSA datasets • Transport LOS (skims) for at least 2 years • Highway (FF & CG) • Transit (walk, peak) • Composite Impedance

  6. Parcel Data TAZ FLU CODE ELU CODE ACRES APPRAISED VALUE EXISTING DWELLING UNITS DRI APPROVED FLAG DRI ACTIVE FLAG URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY FLAG Parcel Attributes (cont) SIGNIFICANT < DRI FLAG TCEA FLAG WATERFRONT FLAG X_COORD Y_COORD SCHOOL “OK” FLAG EXISTING SCHOOL FLAG EXISTING HOTEL/MOTEL FLAG Data Requirements

  7. The DELTASIM Process • Operates on 1 year increments • Full Cohort-component simulation with life events • Births • Deaths • Household formation/dissolution • Children moving out/forming households • Net in-migration

  8. The DELTASIM Process • Monte Carlo style simulation operates on individual agent choices • School location choice (school need) • Residential location choice (HH) • GQ location choice (for now, GQ pop) • HM location choice (need & random draw) • Employer location choice • Transition matrices & probabilities for agent changes

  9. Integrated with the TBRPM • Today • Uses LOS indicators that can be interactive as DELTASIM is completely coded in Cube Voyager • A manual process to put LOS indicators (SKIMS) into DELTASIM. Once the process is fully validated, it may optionally operate as part of the TBRPM job stream. • “Rolls up” results to ZDATA format • Tomorrow • Turn off “roll up” process to provides individual households/persons/employers/employees for eventual activity-based modeling • Add auto ownership, worker, income evolution models for households • Add property pricing (land rent) modules

  10. Next Steps • Complete testing of all feedback mechanisms • Re-estimate parameters, coefficients • Calibrate • Validation & sensitivity testing • Beta testing with some regionally significant projects • Finalize documentation & develop user guide • “Roll it out” for local review and national critique

  11. Let’s Take a Look at Her!

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