Integrated Science and Systems Approaches in Support of Global Transitions

1. Integrated Science and Systems Approaches in Support of Global Transitions Prof Dr Pavel Kabat IIASA Director/CEO

2. MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES

3. MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES FOOD

4. FOOD 925 million people were undernourished in 2010 (FAO) By 2030, the world’s population will have increased by one billion (IIASA) Agriculture accounts for 70% of freshwater withdrawals (UN Water)

5. MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES WATER

6. WATER 884 million people have inadequate access to safe freshwater (WHO & UNICEF) Water use has been growing at more than twice the rate of population increase in the last century (FAO & UN-Water) Hydropower supplies about 20% of the world’s electricity (ICOLD)

7. MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES ENERGY

8. ENERGY 2.5 billion people are without access to modern energy (IIASA/GEA) World primary energy demand expected to increase by 36% between 2008 & 2035 (IEA) Energy production and consumption contributes over 80% of global GHG emissions (IIASA)

9. MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES CLIMATE CHANGE

10. CLIMATE CHANGE Eleven of the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank among the twelve warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850). (IPCC) Average temperatures predicted to increase by 1.1 to 6.4°C by 2100 (IPCC) 70 million Africans could suffer from devastating floods as a result of climate change (IPCC)

11. MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES POVERTY & EQUITY

12. POVERTY & EQUITY Over 24,000 children die each day due to poverty (UNICEF) 80% of humanity lives on less than $10 a day (World Bank) “Hunger is a cause of poverty, not just a consequence of it.” (FAO)

13. INEXTRICABLY LINKED

14. IIASA’S APPROACH

15. RESEARCHING GLOBAL CHALLENGES • } • = Systems Analysis Integrated Interdisciplinary International Independent Solution-oriented Long term Trade offs

16. ADVANCED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS: • PAST SUCCESSES • Dynamic Systems • Multi-criteria decision analysis • Adaptive dynamics theory • Game theory • Agent-based modeling • Stochastic optimization • NEW RESEARCH • Advances in Modeling Dynamic Systems • Extreme events, Systemic Risks and Robust Solutions • Integrated Modeling and Decision Support • Advanced Systems Analysis Forum

17. IIASA helps to put the puzzle together

18. NOBEL PRIZE WINNERS Professor Tjalling Koopmansand Professor Leonid Kantorovich Nobel Prize in Economics (1975)

19. NOBEL PRIZE WINNERS Professor Paul Crutzen Nobel Prize for Chemistry (1995)

20. NOBEL PRIZE WINNERS Professor Thomas C. Schelling Nobel Prize for Economics (2005)

21. NOBEL PRIZE WINNERS Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Nobel Peace Prize (2007)

22. YOUNG SCIENTISTS SUMMER PROGRAM

23. INTERDISCIPLINARY

24. INTERNATIONAL • PARTNERS • IIASA collaborates with almost 300 institutions from nearly 40 countries

25. IIASA’S MEMBER COUNTRIES

26. HOME OF IIASA SINCE 1972

27. RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

28. RESEARCH STRATEGY

29. INTEGRATION: AREAS & PROGRAMS

30. ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

31. RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTSEnergy and Climate Change Highly Published

32. Synergies of Multiple Energy Objectives Integrated Climate-Pollution- Security Policies Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point “Single minded” approaches for multiple challenges All Three Objectives Only Pollution Only Climate Only Energy Security

33. GAINS identified 16 key air quality measures that, together with CO2 mitigation, increase chances to stay below the 2º target Global temperature 1900-2070 Reference scenario IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 CO2 measures IEA 450 ppm scenario 2009 Near-term measures IIASA set of 16 measures for CH4 and black carbon CO2 + Near-term measures • These 16 measures are • win (for air quality), • win (for near-term climate change) • win (for economic development). Source: Shindell et al., Science (2012) 335 no. 6065; p. 183-189  http://gains.iiasa.ac.at

34. Carbon payments for forest conservation would dramatically reduce species extinctions Changes in forest cover over the twenty-first century, within presumed REDD-eligible regions Between 10 and 25% of 4,514 forest-dependent mammal and amphibian species would become extinct

35. World – Historic Primary Energy Transitions(changeover time Δt: 80-130 years) Begin of energy policy Focus: Δt’s >2000 yrs Δt -130 yrs Δt -80 yrs Δt +130 yrs Δt +90 yrs Source: GEA KM24, 2012

36. The Global Energy Assessment (GEA)

37. ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE:BUILDING ON PAST SUCCESSES RAINS helps cut sulfur dioxide MESSAGE has helped over 80 countries with energy planning 2000 2010 1976 1981 1994

38. 1200 Other renewables Nuclear Gas 1000 Oil Microchip Coal Commercialaviation Biomass 800 600 EJ Television Vacuumtube Gasolineengine 400 Electricmotor Steam engine 200 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Global Primary Energy Efficiency Nuclearenergy Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Source: GEA

39. 1200 Other renewables Nuclear Gas 1000 Oil Microchip Coal Commercialaviation Biomass 800 600 EJ Television Vacuumtube Gasolineengine 400 Electricmotor Steam engine 200 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Global Primary Energy Efficiency Nuclearenergy Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Source: GEA

40. FOOD & WATER

41. RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTSFood and Water Models, Data & Scenarios

42. Ratio of Actual (year 2000) to Potential (GAEZ high input level) Cereal Output

43. New web tool to improve accuracy of global land cover maps www.geo-wiki.org

44. A New Explanation of Biodiversity

45. World Water Scenarios

46. SCIENTIFIC OUTPUT 2010, 2011, 2012 (to June)

47. PUBLICATIONS & CITATIONS

48. H-INDEX 72 This h-index measures the productivity and impact of the 1858 journal articles by IIASA authors in the SCOPUS database of peer-reviewed literature. Of these journal articles, 72 articles have been cited more than 72 times.

49. RESEARCH INTO POLICY