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THE IMPACT OF THE AVIATION SECTOR ON CLIMATE CHANGE – A MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS OF POSSSIBLE POLICY MEASURES

XII Scientific Meeting of the Italian Society of Transport Economics (SIET) Rome, 17-18 June 2010. THE IMPACT OF THE AVIATION SECTOR ON CLIMATE CHANGE – A MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS OF POSSSIBLE POLICY MEASURES. Annalia Bernardini, Cathy Macharis Department MOSI - Transport and Logistics .

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THE IMPACT OF THE AVIATION SECTOR ON CLIMATE CHANGE – A MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS OF POSSSIBLE POLICY MEASURES

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  1. XII Scientific Meeting of the Italian Society of Transport Economics (SIET) Rome, 17-18 June 2010 THE IMPACT OF THE AVIATION SECTOR ON CLIMATE CHANGE – A MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS OF POSSSIBLE POLICY MEASURES Annalia Bernardini, Cathy Macharis Department MOSI - Transport and Logistics Image source: www.london-lutoninthecommunity.co.uk/environment/

  2. Overview • The Aviation and the Belgian Climate Policy Project(ABC) and Multicriteria Analysis (MCA) • MCA-PROMETHEE method • PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project • Conclusion

  3. Climate system elements Image source: The U.S. Climate Change Science Program Vision for the Program and Highlights of the Scientific Strategic Plan; A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (July, 2003), modified by MOSI-T

  4. 1. The ABC project and MCA ABC Policy options groups: • Technology R&D investments • Operational efficiencies/Infrastructures • Market based measures MCA  Provides a framework to evaluate the effectiveness of those climate policy options (alternatives) through a set of criteria: • Climate performance • Feasibility • Large scale implementation • Socio-economic impact

  5. 2. MCA-PROMETHEE method • definition of the problems/goals to be achieved • identification of the criteria • prioritization of the alternatives MCA 

  6. MCA-PROMETHEE method PROMETHEE & GAIA, developed by Prof. J.P. Brans and Prof. B. Mareschal at the (U.L.B. and V.U.B., 1983), Prof. C. Macharis, Prof. J.P. Brans and Prof. B. Mareschal, PROMETHEE GDSS, (1998) PROMETHEE  • allows the user to directly exploit the data (alternatives an, criteria fk) of the problem in a simple evolutive multicriteria table (Performance Matrix) • extensive sensitivity analyses as well as visual representations (GAIA) of the data are available to the decision-maker • particularly userfriendly software D-Sight, used for the ABC Impacts policy options assessment

  7. 3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project Goal Policy options to reduce the total aviation climate impact Criteria Alternatives

  8. 3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project The ABC consortium expert assessment of all the alternatives on all the criteria Performance Matrix with high scores 8

  9. 3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project PROMETHEE I 0 1

  10. 3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project PROMETHEE II

  11. 3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project Walking Weights

  12. Conclusion • ABC Impacts project second phase. Ranking of the policy measures is still under discussion within the ABC research consortium • ABC Stakeholders feedback assessment to determine the respective criteria weights • By applying a MCA it is possible to some extent to delineate an appropriate platform for future climate policy options compromises • D-Sight software application has shown to be a valuable tool related to a complex decision problem on behalf of sustainable transport policy support 12

  13. Thank you for your attention More ABC details and information available on: http://www.climate.be/abci http://www.vub.ac.be/MOSI-T

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