Dealing with Uncertainty: Navigating Biodiversity Change in Canada’s Arctic National Parks

1. Dealing with Uncertainty: Navigating Biodiversity Change in Canada’s Arctic National Parks Arctic Biodiversity Symposium Museum of Nature, Ottawa, November 2010 Torngat Mountains National Park, Labrador Photo: D. McLennan

2. Outline • Parks Canada in the North • Arctic climate change - synopsis • Navigating biodiversity change - a proposed proactive adaption strategy for Arctic national parks • A strategy for the Arctic?

3. So…. what about climate change? • Parks Canada Agency • one of most extensive systems of protected areas in the world. • protects and presents these treasures on behalf of Canadians • celebrating 125 years of natural heritage conservation Arctic shrub increases On behalf of the people of Canada, we protect and present nationally significant examples of Canada's natural and cultural heritage and foster public understanding, appreciation and enjoyment in ways that ensure their ecological and commemorative integrity for present and future generations. Orcas in Hudson Bay Sea ice disappearing Protected Areas in the Canadian Arctic

4. Sirmilik NP • increased ‘greening’ • increased productivity • permafrost slumping • lemming cycle dampening? Increased productivity Dampening of Lemming Cycles With permission Cadieux et al 2008 With permission Cadieux et al 2008 Permafrost Melting ? ? 1992-2008 Photo: Joseph Culp/Erik Luikers, EC Analysis by Rob Fraser and Ian Olthof, CCRS

5. 5-8 km/yr ?? National Park Application of Lawler (2009) models by Katherine Lindsay, EC

6. Synopsis: Arctic Change • Arctic climate is changing rapidly • Arctic ecosystems are also responding, but much less rapidly • terrestrial physical environment showing important changes • biota less responsive – mainly in situ productivity/relative dominance changes • How fast? What species? Species interactions? Disease? Species adaptation? Climate feedbacks? C dynamics? • more questions than answers • monitoring and research to reduce uncertainty

7. Reducing Uncertainty A Model for Proactive Adaptive Management Ecological Integrity Monitoring What change is happening in park ecosystems? Conduct/upgrade process-based inventories Park Management Plan ‘Maintain or restore EI’ consultation and decisions set 5-15 year targets Focussed Research How and how fast are park ecosystems changing? • Management Decision Support • Outline key issues • Provide a 5-15 year forecast • Outline options and risks Scoping Document State of the Park Report

8. Focal watershed Ivatak Brook Focal watershed Nachvak Brook ‘Mapping Ecological Integrity’ Biodiversity + Ecosystem process

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10. The Coast • increased coastal erosion/sedimentation • changing hydrology in estuaries and lagoons • coastal fish ecology and access to streams • direct effects on ice-dependent species (polar bears, seals, walrus) Ecotype Map Ivvavik NP Potential Climate Change Effects- Ivvavik NP • Tundra and Wetlands • ongoing influx of southern species • effects on caribou • increasing shrubs and trees • > tundra fire? snow? CO2? • eastern boundary of Beringia – unglaciated • most northerly forests in NA – south facing slopes • 28 ecotypes • important range for Porcupine Caribou Herd • Streams and Lakes • changes in flooding; break up/freeze up • > mass wasting? • changes in permafrost and thermokarst • mountain stream winter freezing? • effects on charr - new fish species (salmon?)

11. Opportunities for Development Porcupine Bluenose West • Bathurst • Beverly • Bluenose East • Ahiak • Qaminirjuaq

12. The Challenge • navigating the combined ecological effects of climate change and Northern development to foster social-ecological resilience and mitigate biodiversity loss • Success will depend a new kind of inclusive approach that coordinates and optimizes the efforts of all Northern actors.

13. An Arctic Model for Proactive Adaptive Management Pan-arctic Inventory Coordinated Monitoring What change is happening in Arctic ecosystems? Northern Strategy (‘Northern Management Ctte”) consultation and decisions set 5-15 year targets Focussed Research How and how fast are Arctic ecosystems changing? • Management Decision Support • Outline key issues • Provide a 5-15 year forecast • Outline options and risks Scoping State of the Arctic Report

14. Ongoing Arctic Monitoring Initiatives Federal Territories and Others Territories (INAC) NWT - CIMP Nunavut - NGMP Communities Arctic Borderlands Sea Ice Nunavut others Industry Akati Mines Mackenzie gas pipeline Academia CEN Arctic Net • Parks Canada EI Monitoring • EC/MSC/WSC – climate, water quantity and quality, CABIN • EC/CWS – caribou, polar bears, migratory birds, seabirds, • EC – CBMP EMG Freshwater • DFO – CBMP EMG Marine • INAC – BREA , MGP

15. National Park Community > 1,000 CHARS Science Sites Tundra Ecosystems – Olthof et al. CCRS

16. Canada’s Arctic and PAs • Arctic National Parks as INoRMs • Integrated Network of Research and Monitoring • ‘baselines’ of Arctic ecological change • Focal Watersheds Model: ecological inventories, long term monitoring sites, stream discharge, weather stations; • “sites for science” • long term commitment to EI monitoring and reporting • cooperative management with Indigenous partners • present in northern communities/ operational in the field • research logistical support – transportation, safety Canadian Arctic and Sub-Arctic Protected Areas

17. Northern ScienceBuild on IPY Momentum • world-leading science coordinated nationally and cooperating internationally • “From Knowledge to Action” IPY Montreal 2012 • strong outreach/communication component • effective interaction with Arctic communities • legacy of young scientists to ‘carry the torch’

18. Keys to Success • Work together on pan-Arctic objectives set out in the Northern Strategy • Empower northern communities as a key component of the solution • Invest in a knowledge system to reduce uncertainty and understand change

19. Please Contact: Donald McLennan Parks Canada Agency 25 rue Eddy, Hull, QC, K1A0M5 Tel: (819) 953 6464 email: donald.mclennan@pc.gc.ca An unknown future working together for a common future

20. Science Management Support • Research Summaries • plain language summary of research results • implications for park management objectives • risks/benefits of acting/not acting • identify emerging issues • Process Models and Projections • scaled down climate models, weather projections • 5 – 15 year projections of ecosystem change • model monitoring/model improvements/model iterations

21. The Role of Traditional Knowledge There is now less snow fall and the only snow fall we get, the wind blows it away so it doesn’t have time to build up and get compact. Now we just have very small snowdrifts. The snow drifts in the past were so big that the igloos were automatically half way built. [Original in Inuktitut – Inuit Knowledge Project] Figure4.4. Mean annual air and soil temperatures (at 2-cm and 10-cm depths) from 1995 to 2002 in the Qarlikturvik Valley lowlands, Bylot Island (Gagnon et al., 2004).

22. The Need to Collaborate Internationally • the circum-polar Arctic is one interconnected and interdependent ecosystem - need for cooperation • build on IPY progress and further increase circumpolar cooperation and collaboration (ITEX, PPS, seabirds, others) • SAON, IASC, and many other initiatives ongoing • broaden opportunities for science funding; access to global expertise • CBMP links biodiversity monitoring – Expert Monitoring Groups • Canada takes over Chair of Arctic Council next

23. S&T Program Extensive processto define S&T priorities for CHARS Scoping and synthesis papers Visioning Workshop International panel convened by Council of Canadian Academies Canadian Visioning workshop’s proposed S&T priority themes: