1C. Identify and Rate Critical Threats (Stress-based Threat Rating)

1. Conservation Coaches Network Workshop Presentation 1C. Identify and Rate Critical Threats (Stress-based Threat Rating)

2. Adaptive Management Workshop Presentations 1A-1B. Team, Scope, Vision 1B. Conservation Targets 1B. Viability Assessment 2A-1. Strategy Selection 2A-2. Results Chains 2A-3. Goals and Objectives 1C. Threat Rating 1D. Conceptual Models 2B. Monitoring Plan

3. Conceptualize Threats

4. This Presentation Threats • What are Stresses and Direct Threats • How to Identify Stresses and Direct Threats • How to Do a Stress-Based Threat Rating

5. What is a Stress? Threats • Stress: an impaired key ecological attribute (KEA) of a target. A single stress can be caused by multiple direct threats.

6. What is a Direct Threat? Threats Direct Threats: Human-induced actions or events that will directly degrade one or more conservation targets Direct threats are: • usually human activities, but they can be • natural phenomena altered by human activities or whose impact is increased by human activities • (e.g., disease transmitted by livestock)

7. Examples of Direct Threats Threats Unsustainable Logging Unsustainable harvest Operation of Dams Exotic/Invasive Species Residential Development Incompatible Livestock Grazing Photo: Adrian Jones, IAN Image Library

8. IUCN-CMP Classification of Direct Threats Threats Available at www.conservationmeasures.org Salafsky et al. (2008). Conservation Biology

9. Difference Between Direct Threat & Stress? Threats • Stress: an impaired key ecological attribute of a target. A single stress can be caused by multiple direct threats. • Examples: habitat fragmentation, high mortality • Direct Threat: Human-induced actions or events that will directly degrade one or more conservation targets. A direct threat has at least one actor associated with it. • Example: residential development

10. Difference Between Direct Threat & Stress? Threats

11. Difference Between Direct & Indirect Threats? Threats • Direct threat: Human-induced actions or events that will directly degrade one or more conservation targets.A direct threat has at least one actor associated with it. • Example: residential development • Indirect threat/contributing factor (short definition): an economic, cultural, societal, or institutional factor which allows or encourages direct threats to occur • Examples: need for income, lack of knowledge, low capacity

12. This Presentation Threats • What are Stresses and Direct Threats • How to Identify Stresses and Direct Threats • How to Do a Stress-Based Threat Rating

13. How Do You Identify Stresses and Direct Threats? • For one conservation target, review the key ecological attributes (KEAs). • Target: Riparian habitat • KEAs: Spatial extent, connectivity of riparian corridor • Identify stresses by determining which KEAs are altered. Stresses = altered KEAs. • Stresses: Habitat conversion, habitat fragmentation • Identify the direct threats causing the stresses. Direct threats = sources of stress. • Direct threats: Development, Agriculture, Grazing • Link direct threats to targets • Link direct threats to relevant stresses

14. Our Example:Swan Coastal Plain Wetlands Threats Adapted from WWF Australia’s Wetlands Watch Project

15. 1. Review KEAs for One Target Threats KEAs for Seasonally Flooded Wetlands: • Area of seasonally flooded wetlands of high conservation value (HCV) • Vegetative community structure • Water level fluctuations

16. 2. Identify Stresses (Altered KEAs) Threats KEAs and Stresses for Seasonally Flooded Wetlands: • Area of seasonally flooded wetlands of high conservation value (HCV) => Habitat loss • Vegetative community structure => Altered vegetative species composition • Water level fluctuations => Altered hydrology

17. 2. Identify Stresses (Altered KEAs) Threats Double-click on the target and select the “Stresses” tab Inputting Stresses into Miradi

18. 3. Identify Direct Threats Causing Stresses Threats Stressesand Direct Threats Affecting Seasonally Flooded Wetlands:

19. 2. Identify Stresses – Another Example Threats KEAs and Stresses for Blue-Billed Ducks • Reproductive success => Reduced reproductive success • Area of high conservation value habitat => Habitat loss

20. 3. Identify Direct Threats – Another Example Threats Stressesand Direct Threats Affecting Blue-billed Ducks:

21. 4. Identify Direct Threats & Link Them Threats

22. 4. Identify Direct Threats & Link Them Threats Invasive weeds

23. 4. Identify Direct Threats & Link Them Threats Clearing for residential & infrastructure Illegal clearing by landowners Increased groundwater extraction

24. 4. Identify Direct Threats & Link Them Threats Climate change Overgrazing Pesticides from agriculture

25. When to Lump or Split Direct Threats Threats Lump direct threats if: • they are similar and are caused by the same actors • they will require similar strategies • you have a lot of direct threats Example: all unsustainable fishing practices used by local fishers Split if direct threats: • are different and are caused by different actors • will require different strategies Example: unsustainable fishing practices used by local, small-scale fishers vs. illegal practices used by industrial fishing boats

26. 5. Link Direct Threats to Relevant Stresses Threats Select Threat Ratings Select Stress-based Threat Rating Mode Cursor is placed on the box linking Invasive Weeds (direct threat) to Seasonally Flooded Wetlands (target) Check-box used to link Invasive Weeds (direct threat) to Altered vegetative species composition (stress)

27. 5. Link Direct Threats to Relevant Stresses Threats Repeat for all direct threats. In this case, Increased Groundwater Extraction (direct threat) affects Seasonally Flooded Wetlands (target)… …by contributing to Altered Hydrology (stress)

28. This Presentation Threats • What are Stresses and Direct Threats • How to Identify Stresses and Direct Threats • How to Do a Stress-Based Threat Rating

29. Why Rate Threats? Threats • Limited resources • Complex situations • Applying a systematic methdology helps you decide what threats to focus on

30. How to Do a Stress-based Threat Rating Threats • Rate impact of stresses on targets • Rate effect of threats on stresses • Review and discuss summary ratings • Show highest stresses on overall conceptual model

31. 1. Rate Impact of Stresses on Targets Threats Step 1: Rate impact of each stress affecting it a target for: • Scope • Severity Scope Conservation Target Direct Threat (Source of Stress) Stress Severity

32. 1. Rate Impact of Stresses on Targets - Scope Threats Spatial proportion of the target affected within ten years given continuation of current circumstances and trends. • For ecosystems: proportion of the target's occurrence • For species: proportion of the target’s population

33. 1. Rate Impact of Stresses on Targets - Scope Threats Scope: Spatial proportion of the target affected within ten years given continuation of current circumstances and trends • Very High: The stress is likely to be pervasivein its scope, affecting the target across all or most (71-100%) of its occurrence/population. • High: The stress is likely to be widespread in its scope, affecting the target across much (31-70%) of its occurrence/population. • Medium: The stress is likely to be restrictedin its scope, affecting the target across some (11-30%) of its occurrence/population. • Low: The stress is likely to be very narrow in its scope, affecting the target across a small proportion (1-10%) of its occurrence/population.

34. Your Turn: Which of these stresses has a larger scope? Threats Conservation Target: Forest • Habitat conversion – loss of 10% of the forest due to conversion to agricultural land • Change in composition of the vegetation in 50% of the forest, due to extraction of non-timber forest products

35. 1. Rate Impact of Stresses on Targets - Severity Threats Within the scope, the level of damage given continuation of current circumstances and trends. • For ecosystems: degree of destruction or degradation of the target within the scope. • For species: degree of reduction of the target population within the scope.

36. 1. Rate Impact of Stresses on Targets - Severity Threats Severity - Within the scope, the level of damage given continuation of current circumstances and trends. • Very High: Within the scope, the stress is likely to destroy or eliminate the target, or reduce its population by 71-100% within ten years or three generations. • High: Within the scope, the stress is likely to seriously degrade/reduce the target or reduce its population by 31-70% within ten years or three generations. • Medium: Within the scope, the stress is likely to moderately degrade/reduce the target or reduce its population by 11-30% within ten years or three generations. • Low: Within the scope, the stress is likely to only slightly degrade/reduce the target or reduce its population by 1-10% within ten years or three generations.

37. Your Turn: Which of these stresses has higher severity? Threats Conservation Target: Forest • Habitat conversion – loss of 10% of the forest due to conversion to agricultural land • Change in composition of the vegetation in 50% of the forest, due to extraction of non-timber forest products

38. 1. Rate Impact of Stresses on Targets Threats In Diagram view, double-click on target and go to Stress tab Select a stress Rate the stress for scope and severity

39. 2. Rate Effect of Threats on Stresses Threats Step 2: For each stress, rate the effect of each relevant direct threat (source of stress) for: • Contribution • Irreversibility Contribution Conservation Target Direct Threat (Source of Stress) Stress Irreversibility

40. 2. Rate Effect of Threats on Stresses -Contribution Threats Contribution – The expected contribution of the source, acting alone, to the full expression of a stress, given the continuation of current circumstances.

41. 2. Rate Effect of Threats on Stresses -Contribution Threats Contribution – The expected contribution of the source, acting alone, to the full expression of a stress, given the continuation of current circumstances. • Very High: The threat is a very large contributor to the particular stress. • High: The threat is a large contributor to the particular stress. • Medium: The threat is a moderate contributor to the particular stress. • Low: The threat is a low contributor to the particular stress.

42. 2. Rate Effect of Threats on Stresses -Irreversibility Threats Irreversibility - The degree to which the effects of a threat can be reversed and the target affected by the threat restored. vs.

43. 2. Rate Effect of Threats on Stresses -Irreversibility Threats Irreversibility - The degree to which the effects of a threat can be reversed and the target affected by the threat restored. • Very High: The effects of the threat cannot be reversed and it is very unlikely the target can be restored, and/or it would take more than 100 years to achieve this (e.g., wetlands converted to a shopping center). • High: The effects of the threat can technically be reversed and the target restored, but it is not practically affordable and/or it would take 21-100 years to achieve this (e.g., wetland converted to agriculture). • Medium: The effects of the threat can be reversed and the target restored with a reasonable commitment of resources and/or within 6-20 years (e.g., ditching and draining of wetland). • Low: The effects of the threat are easily reversible and the target can be easily restored at a relatively low cost and/or within 0-5 years (e.g., off-road vehicles trespassing in wetland).

44. Your Turn: Which of these threats has the highest irreversibility? Threats For habitat fragmentation (stress) of a forest ecosystem (conservation target): • A logging road • Selective logging done by helicopter • Residential development

45. 2. Rate Effect of Threats on Stresses Threats Use Threat Rating mode to rate the effect of threats on stresses Increased Groundwater Extraction has a VH contribution to Altered Hydrology, with H Irreversibility

46. How to Do a Stress-based Threat Rating Threats • Rate impact of stresses on targets • Rate effect of threats on stresses • Review and discuss summary ratings • Show highest stresses on overall conceptual model

47. 3. Review and Discuss Summary Ratings Threats 2 Prime Rule: Need at least 2 of a level 3-5-7 Rule: 3 highs = 1 Very High 5 Mediums = 1 High 7 Lows = Medium

48. 3. Review and Discuss Summary Ratings Threats

49. 3. Review and Discuss Summary Ratings Threats Once you have rated all stresses and direct threats, Miradi will indicate the summary values for threats in the Diagram view

50. 4. Show Highest Stresses on Model Threats In Diagram view, double-click on a target and select “Stresses” tab Select a stress Select “Show Stress” Select “Stress Visibility” (slightly different on PC – this is on a Mac)