Indian Weather Markets…..

1. Indian Weather Markets….. Weather Risk Management Services Pvt. Ltd.

2. Read how organizations describe their exposure…

3. Indian Market…… • EID Parry sales, net down 86 pc on monsoon failure. - The Hindu, Jan 17, 2003 • The Company's business is seasonal in nature and the performance can be impacted by weather conditions - Notes to Accounts, Syngenta (I) Ltd. • Monsanto India continued its strong profit growth on the back of positive all-round business performance aided by a good monsoon. - Annual Report 2003-04, Monsanto Ltd • The delayed monsoon has hit the fertilizer stocks badly. - Analyst, Hindu Business Line • Over 1000 farmers commit suicide in vidarbha and Telangana in last two years – TOI • An average drought costs upto Rs 4 bn to the state exchequer,Gujarat earthquake resulted in direct damages of about Rs.153 billion -NDMC

4. Indian Market

5. Impacts Yields

6. Impacts on Acreages

7. Impact on Prices

8. Impact of Weather on Farming • Makes the earnings volatile, Affects working capital repayment • Affects contractual obligation • In plantations/ corporate Farming Fixed : Variable cost ratio is high • High Fixed Costs puts profits under pressure • When production reduces in the key producing months • Happens primarily on account of weather • Possibly affects expansion plan when price outlook is positive

9. Impact of Weather on Farming Stages: Flowering & Veg Growth Pod Formation & Maturity Establishment 15 May-10 June Time: 11 June – 31 July Aug 1 – Sep 30 Rainfall Index: 60mm 100mm 160mm When to harvest ?? Which crop to go for ?? When to apply pesticides ??

10. Seed Sale = f (Acreages, Competition) Acreage = f (Onset, Price, Credit)

11. Seed Sale = f (Acreages, Competition) Acreage = f (Monsoon Onset, Price, Credit) Around 60% sowing finishes by 20th July

12. Seed Sale = f (Acreages, Competition) Acreage = f (Monsoon Onset, Price, Credit)

13. Pesticides Sale = f (Acreages, Weather Conditions during Vegetative growth, Competition)

14. Pesticides Sale = f (Acreages, Weather Conditions during Vegetative growth, Competition)

15. Agro-processor Agro-processor Farm Equipment Farm Equipment Pesticides Pesticides Agro-processor Seed Seed Farm Equipment Fertilizers Pesticides Fertilizers Seed Fertilizers Farmer Farmer Farmer Weather & Agri-Value Chain Credit Risk Higher Inventory Loss of sales opportunity Value Destruction - Weather

16. Weather Becoming More Extreme • Extreme rainfall incidents have seen a huge jump in recent decades over northwest India (including Maharashtra and Gujarat) during the summer monsoon • Orissa has been reeling under contrasting extreme weather conditions for more than a decade: from heat waves to cyclones and from droughts to floods. The death toll due to heat waves in Rajasthan, Punjab, Gujarat, and Bihar is on the rise • The coastal regions have been undergoing stronger wind and flood damage due to storm surges associated with more intense tropical storms in recent years. Frequent inundation of low lying areas, more flooding and increase in the salinity of rivers, bays and aquifers in the coastal regions have occurred more often during the past decade.

17. Weather risk management Financial weather risk is the occurrence of an observable weather event or variability in a measurable weather index that causes losses either to property or profits for an individual, government or corporation. Weather risk management products – packaged as either (re)insurance or derivatives – are settled off of the same index that has been determined to cause losses and reduces weather risk through mitigating payouts.

18. Manageable weather risks Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Wind Speed Streamflow Sunshine hours Soil Moisture Humidity Hurricanes A WEATHER INDEX IS GENERALLY CONSTRUCTED AS A FUNCTION OF FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE AND MAGNITUDE OF EVENT

19. Weather impacts volume PRICE x VOLUME = REVENUE PRICE RISK MANAGEMENT WEATHER RISK MANAGEMENT LOWER EARNINGS VOLATILITY +

20. Less volatility equals greater value Historical Revenues UNHEDGED Expected Revenues Without Weather Protection$75 Million HEDGED Expected Revenues With Weather Protection$73 Million Reducing the volatility due to weather has a budget cost but increases returns per unit of risk and can potentially improve stock valuations and the cost of/access to financing.

21. Sales Expansion Thru Weather Insurance • Larger scale may also ensure reduction in price of seeds, thereby facilitating sales • Several precautionary measures built in sales process to tackle weather risk, which inhibit sales; scope for process improvement

22. On Site wireless Sensors Processing of data received from sensors and converting it according to specific product Farmers Console (GIS) Organizing Real Time Data • Covering important agricultural zones real time, at a cost of approx. Rs.500 per sq.km or Rs.5 per ha • Generation of Historical records for any given long.- lat. Position • Statistical & Neural Network model • Building UAV and Advanced remote sensing applications to assist this

23. Spatial Interpolation RMS error ( under square root transformation)~ 2mm

24. Decision Support System Forecast Inputs • Crop Planning • Irrigation planning • Pest Management • Yield forecast • Risk Transfer Front-end Output Identification & Quantification of the Risk Simplified output in vernacular language for farmers Scientific modeling of risk Current Weather Data Needs to be customized for Bank’s portfolio

25. Hybrid Products – Filling the Gap

26. Thank you

27. Number of years with … Deficient monsoon Deficit>10% Normal monsoon(-ve) Normal monsoon (+ve) Excess monsoon excess>10% Total El Nino 11 11 4 0 26 La Nina 0 1 9 8 18 Other 11 23 42 11 87 Total 22 35 55 19 131 El Nino/La Nina association with all-India summer monsoon rainfall anomalies during 1871-2001 More on Monsoon and ENSO