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Detecting Influenza Epidemics Using Search Engine Query Data

Detecting Influenza Epidemics Using Search Engine Query Data MBDS Regional Forum, Kunming China 2009. Background. 90 million people in U.S. search online for health information Data can be collected globally, processed in near real-time

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Detecting Influenza Epidemics Using Search Engine Query Data

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  1. Detecting Influenza Epidemics Using Search Engine Query Data MBDS Regional Forum, Kunming China 2009

  2. Background • 90 million people in U.S. search online for health information • Data can be collected globally, processed in near real-time • Users may consult search engines prior to health care visit

  3. What do people search for when they’re sick? • Could rely on hand-picked terms, taxonomies, expert advice • Search users aren’t doctors: they use creative expressions • News events, celebrities can inspire flu-related searches 3

  4. Methodology Obtain historic weekly surveillance data Build database of weekly search query frequencies for every possible search query Find search queries whose weekly frequencies closely fit the surveillance data 4

  5. Methodology Goal: estimate P(ILI visit) using P(ILI-related search query) where • I(t) – percentage of physician visits related to ILI • Q(t) – percentage of search queries related to ILI 5

  6. Combining Top Queries Best performance obtained by combining N=45 queries Top 100 queries included [high school basketball] and [oscar nominations] 6

  7. Topics Found in Search Queries Topics found in search queries which were found to be most correlated with CDC ILI data

  8. Timeliness • Google ILI estimates are consistently 1-2 weeks ahead of published CDC reports • Not a replacement for traditional surveillance, but may spur public health officials to investigate and respond more quickly 8

  9. Flu Trends website 9

  10. Future Work • Potential for international coverage • Google Flu Trends now operating for Australia, New Zealand, and Mexico (experimental) • MBDS countries where Flu Trends might add value: China, Thailand, and Vietnam 10

  11. Thank you for your attention.

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