สัมมนาเศรษฐศาสตร์การพัฒนา Seminar in Development Economics ศ 469 / EC469

1. สัมมนาเศรษฐศาสตร์การพัฒนาSeminar in Development Economicsศ 469 / EC469 ภาคเรียนที่ 2/2553 กิริยา กุลกลการ

2. ครั้งที่ 1 (8 พฤศจิกายน) • การเรียน การสอน และการวัดผล • ความเหลื่อมล้ำทางเศรษฐกิจและทางออกประเทศไทย • แนวคิดทางทฤษฎี • สถานการณ์ความเหลื่อมล้ำทางเศรษฐกิจในประเทศไทย • ครั้งที่ 2 (15 พฤศจิกายน) • วิธีการทำวิจัย การเขียนงานวิจัย และการนำเสนองานวิจัย • ครั้งที่ 3 (22 พฤศจิกายน) • อบรมวิธีการสืบค้นเอกสาร และการอ้างอิง โดย บรรณารักษ์ กำหนดการบรรยาย

3. “ความเหลื่อมล้ำทางเศรษฐกิจกับทางออกประเทศไทย”“ความเหลื่อมล้ำทางเศรษฐกิจกับทางออกประเทศไทย”

4. How to measure inequality? • Why should we care? • What can we do about it? Income Inequality

5. Anonymity Principle • It doesn’t matter who earns the income. • Population Principle • Cloning the entire population should not alter inequality. • Relative Income Principle • Scaling everyone’s income up or down by the same percent shouldn’t change inequality. • Dalton’s Transfer Principle • A transfer of income from a poorer person i to a richer person j must increase inequality. 4 criteria for inequality measurement

6. Lorenz Curve

8. Lorenz Criterion – if a Lorenz curve lies at every point to the right of another Lorenz curve, then that distribution is more unequal.

10. Ranges = (yh-yl)/ybar • Kuznets Ratio = ratio of share of income earned by the richest x% to the share of the poorest y% • MAD – Mean absolute deviation • These 3 measures don’t satisfy Dalton. • Gini coefficient • Graphically, it is the area between the Lorenz curve and the 45 degree line divided by the area below the 45-degree line. Inequality Measures

12. MAD increase from 14/20 to 16/20 if guy 2 gives $1 to guy 4.

13. MAD stays 14/20 if guy 1 gives $1 to guy 2. MAD will work for Dalton if we transfer money from below mean to above mean.

14. Gini:

15. Gini: increase from 60/160 to 68/160 if guy 2 give $1 to guy 4

16. Gini: increase from 60/160 to 64/160 if guy 1 give $1 to guy 2

18. Is inequality of outcomes the right thing to measure? • If one person studies hard and get an A and the other parties and gets a C, is that bad? • Why would you ever work hard if everyone always ended up with the same amount of money? • Inequality in opportunities is much more socially unjust. Inequality vs Inequity

19. Study done in Ecuador looking at cognitive development of Ecuadorean children ages 3-6 using vocabulary recognition test. • Youngest children perform broadly the same regardless of wealth or maternal education. • Poor kids do way worse by age 6. Huge disadvantage at an early age.

21. Study done in Brazil decomposing total inequality into a component based on observed opportunities and a residual. • Define opportunities as the circumstances lying beyond an individual’s control. • How do you measure it? • Regress log of wages on a constant, race, parental schooling, father’s occupation, region of birth, plus years of own schooling and whether or not they migrated.

22. The first ones represent opportunity while the last two represent effort. • Look at people in 1996 in different age groups. The bars are total inequality with inequity on the top. • For the older cohorts inequity is around 41% of total inequality. • For the younger cohorts inequity is around 36%. • Slight decrease over time. • Probably an underestimate since it doesn’t control for lots of things like sex, school quality, family health, etc.

24. Fairness – utility functions value a unit increase in the income of a poor person more than the same increment going to a richer person • Experimental evidence: Ultimatum Game • Survey in 69 countries • Relative income is important for ideas about fairness. Why should we care?

27. S=>I=>Growth • Draw a graph with savings on the y-axis and income on the x-axis. • If it is convex, inequality is good for growth. • If it is concave, inequality is bad for growth. • What about if it looks more like an S? • For poor countries, inequality is good for growth. • For rich countries, inequality is bad for growth. Saving

28. Internal bounds

29. Underinvestment in small industries

30. Underinvestment in agriculture

31. Underinvestment in agriculture

32. Inequality => median voter will be poor and will vote for a high progressive tax =>the rich won’t have an incentive to work hard => retard growth • Inequality => social tensions => political instability => discourage investment • Inequality => the elite may have leeway to choose strategies benefitting themselves rather than the whole population Political redistribution

33. Early child development programs • Basic education and health initiatives • Land access policies • Equitable justice systems • Unemployment, health and crop insurance • Microfinance • Tax reform • Social welfare What can we do?

34. Variation in Infant Mortality • Income Inequality Within and Between Countries • Income is very unequally distributed across the world. In 2000, the richest 20% of 6.1 billion world population have 74% of the income. The poorest 20% have only 2% of the income. Distribution of Living Standards in the Contemporary World

46. Thailand has grown economically at the satisfactory annual rate of 7%, its achievements in terms of income inequality have been less successful. • การพัฒนาของเศรษฐกิจไทยนับตั้งแต่ช่วงปี 2530 เป็นต้นมา ส่งผลให้ความยากจนลดลงอย่างมาก จากกว่า 22 ล้านคนในปี 2531 หรือคิดเป็น 42.3% ของประชากรทั้งประเทศ ลดลงเหลือเพียง 8.5 ล้านคน หรือคิดเป็น 5.4% ของประชากรทั้งประเทศในปี 2550 • From UNDP’s 2006 report, Thailand was ranked 74th in income distribution from a total of 177 countries and a Gini Index of 42. Poverty and Income Inequalityin Thailand

47. Poverty line from NESDB • 1994 838 baht/month • 2004 1242 baht/month • 2007 1443 baht/month (Bangkok 2065 Baht/month) • The poor 5.4 million (8.5%) by HCR • The poorest region • N/E of Thailand (2.8 million, 52.2%) • Highest density of poor people - Mae Hong Son (67%) Poverty in Thailand