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Overview of the Climate Prediction Center and Coordination with CICS

Dr. Wayne Higgins, Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP CICS Science Meeting September 2010. Overview of the Climate Prediction Center and Coordination with CICS. Outline. CPC within NCEP Ongoing CPC Activities CPC and CICS How is CPC involved with CICS?

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Overview of the Climate Prediction Center and Coordination with CICS

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  1. Dr. Wayne Higgins, Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP CICS Science Meeting September 2010 Overview of the Climate Prediction Center and Coordination with CICS

  2. Outline • CPC within NCEP • Ongoing CPC Activities • CPC and CICS • How is CPC involved with CICS? • Current Examples of Collaborative Science • Enhancing the Role of CICS at CPC • Forces for Change

  3. CPC within NCEP

  4. The CPC Mission We deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy. • National temperature and precipitation outlooks • Focus: weeks, months, seasons, years (i.e. short term climate) • Forecasts in collaboration with other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices and labs • Established Concept of Operations • Real-time Climate Services (e.g. Gulf Oil Spill) • Integral to NOAA Seamless Suite of Products Temperature Outlook

  5. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits Service Center Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Seasonal Predictions Months Week 2 Hazards Assessment CPC 2 Week Climate/Weather Linkage 6-10 Day Forecast 1 Week RFCs NDFD, Days 4 -7 HPC OPC TPC Days Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 8 Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 : SPC AWC SWPC Hours WFOs Minutes Health Maritime Aviation Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Environment Fire Weather Life & Property Emergency Mgmt Energy Planning Space Operations Reservoir Control

  6. CPC Federal / Support Staff & Budget • *Sources: • Climate Program Office NWS/Intl Affairs • NESDIS • USAID • NASA • ** WYLE Information Systems, • McLean, VA

  7. Ongoing CPC Activities

  8. Climate Prediction Products Focus on week-2 to seasonal-to-interannual 6-10 Day & 8-14 Day Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks Day 3-14 Hazards Assessments (US, Global Tropics) Monthly & Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks Seasonal Drought Outlook Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks (Atlantic and Eastern Pacific) Monthly ENSO Prediction • Tools used to develop prediction products • Dynamical Models • Statistical Models • Historical Analogs • Historical Composites • * Dynamical Models • Climate Forecast System • Global Forecast System • ECMWF

  9. Climate Monitoring Products Enabled by global observations, CPC monitoring analyzes, documents, and provides data and information on the changing state of the climate and its impacts. CPC Monitoring Products include Primary modes of climate variability (ENSO, MJO, NAO, PNA, AO,...) Atmospheric Conditions (global troposphere and stratosphere) Oceanic Conditions (global and coastal) Storm Tracks and Blocking Monsoons Precipitation and Surface Temperature (global and US) Drought (US, North America; NIDIS)

  10. Climate Assessment Products Synthesis of current weather and climate information and forecasts; issued on a routine basis Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly, web) ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (monthly, PDF and WORD) Weekly ENSO / MJO / Monsoon / Ocean updates (.ppt, PDF, web) Seasonal Climate Summaries (web) Special Climate Assessments (extreme events, web) Annual Climate Assessment (multi-agency; published in the AMS Bulletin) Hazards Assessments (US, Africa, & Global Tropics) Day 3-14 – WX/CX Connection

  11. Applied Climate Research (Science and Service Integration)

  12. Climate Modeling and Prediction Advances at NCEP • Climate Forecast System - NOAA’s first dynamic, fully-coupled operational climate forecast model • Version 1 operational since Aug 2004 • Version 2 operational in Dec 2010 • Reanalysis (1979-present; extension to 1948) and Reforecasts • Climate Test Bed – Accelerate the transition of Research to Operations (R2O) • CFS improvements • Multi Model Ensemble Prediction Systems • Climate Forecast Products • CPC-CTB-RISA Program; Regional Climate Information • Model Test Facility - Provide CFS and related datasets to community (O2R) CFS (v1) Implemented Climate Test Bed spin up

  13. FY11 Major Thrust Areas(Operational Activities)

  14. FY11 Major Thrust Areas(Developmental Activities)

  15. FY11 Major Thrust Areas(Developmental Activities)

  16. CPC and CICS

  17. How is CPC involved with CICS? • Historically: long-standing relationship • Thematically: CPC mission links closely to CICS science themes • Practically: CICS provides a useful alternative mechanism for sponsoring visitors and collaborative science at CPC

  18. CPC – CICS/ESSIC Reliability of Precipitation Forecasts during MJO Events Hovmoller Diagram of Precipitation (15oN-15oS) red lines show evolution from observations (“CMORPH”) “5-day forecasts look good (even out to 10-day forecasts, … although the evolution shows increasing lag with increasing forecast projection)”. Janowiak1, Bauer2, Wang3, Arkin1, Gottschalck3, 2010: An Evaluation of Precipitation Forecasts from Operational Models and Reanalyses Including Precipitation Variations Associated with MJO Activity. Mon. Wea. Rev. (in press) 1 CICS/ESSIC 2 ECMWF 3 CPC

  19. Vintzileos (CICS/ESSIC), Gottschalck (CPC), Higgins (CPC) et al • Previous Work: • Forecast skill improves when either the atmospheric or oceanic initial conditions are better. • Forecast skill was found to be less sensitive to resolution in GDAS and CDAS. • Current Work: • Investigating the Maritime Continent Barrier issue CPC – CICS/ESSICImpact of Initial Conditions and Model Resolution on MJO Forecasts Publications: Toth Z., et al., 2007: Bridging the gap between weather and climate forecasting: Research priorities for intra-seasonal prediction. BAMS, 88, 1427- 1429 Gottschalck, et al., 2009: Establishing and Assessing Operational Model MJO Forecasts: A Project of the CLIVAR Madden-Julian Oscillation WorkingGroup, BAMS, Accepted

  20. CPC –CICS/ESSIC Drought Monitoring and Prediction EffortsKingtse Mo (CPC), Jinho Yoon (CICS/ESSIC) and Li-Chuan Chen (CICS/ESSIC) Forecast skill for 4 Downscaling Methods (SPI6) Drought Monitoring and Prediction Tasks Develop next generation Drought Monitor and Seasonal Drought Outlook products Develop objective drought monitoring based on North American Land Data Assimilation System Deliver regional drought information to users via briefings (e.g. Monthly Drought Briefing) and web pages Research to improve objective drought forecast products (e.g. SPI forecasts based on the NCEP Climate Forecast System) BCSD Schaake Bayesian Ensemble mean For leads from 1 to 4 mo, the forecasts are skillful and differences are small. At longer leads large differences occur.

  21. Enhancing the Role of CICS at CPC • Expand use of CICS to hire scientists (i.e. postdocs or CICS contractors) who enhance the provision of applied research, observations, analysis, services and stakeholder input that contributes to CPC mission • Collaborate with CICS-affiliated researchers on topics of mutual interest • Coordinate joint visiting scientist programs • Coordinate joint seminar series • Potentially: CPC and CICS could serve as a model for NWS engagement with the NOAA CIs

  22. Forces for Change

  23. Forces for Change • NCEP (FY09-13), NWS (2010-2025) & NOAA (FY10-14) Strategic Plans • CPC 5-Year Implementation and Operations Plan (FY09-13) • Move to NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction • Opportunities for collaboration • Emergence of NOAA Climate Service • Strategic Vision and Framework • Reprogramming package • Climate Prediction • Enhance Intraseasonal-to-Interannual climate forecasts • Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensembles across time scales • Enhance transition activities (Climate Test Bed; Model Test Facility) • Improve Interactions with Broader Science and Service Community

  24. Summary CPC • Delivers a suite of “operational” climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products • Accelerates advances in climate prediction and fills gaps in the “seamless suite” of climate products • Works across NOAA and with other organizations on expanded responsibilities for climate; interdisciplinary approaches are the key to success • Plays a unique and critical role in NOAA climate services • Enthusiastically welcomes the opportunity to work with CICS

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