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Climate Prediction Center Embracing the Future

Climate Prediction Center Embracing the Future. CPC Management Team, 32 nd CDPW, Tallahassee, FL, 22 October, 2007. Message. NOAA/NCEP provide critical operational support for delivery of climate products and services: Observations Models and Assimilation Systems Computing Support

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Climate Prediction Center Embracing the Future

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  1. Climate Prediction CenterEmbracing the Future CPC Management Team, 32nd CDPW, Tallahassee, FL, 22 October, 2007

  2. Message • NOAA/NCEP provide critical operational support for delivery of climate products and services: • Observations • Models and Assimilation Systems • Computing Support • Products and Forecast Services • CPC focus: deliver climate forecast products (weeks, months, seasons, years) to serve a diverse customer base. • Collaboration is a key element of future success in addressing climate challenges: • CPO, NASA, NCAR, GFDL, ESRL, NCDC, IRI, COLA, Univ., RISAs, others • New initiatives, such as the CTB, are opportunities to accelerate Research  Operations Operations  Research.

  3. The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services… Observe To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies… - Process - Assimilate - Predict Products & Forecast Services Central Guidance Local Offices Respond & Feedback CPC NCEP Distribute IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD Research, Development and Technology Infusion Feedback To develop an appreciation for the full delivery of service, the path must be viewed in a larger context as an end-to-end forecast process

  4. Climate Mission “CPC serves the public by assessing and forecasting the impacts of short-term climate variability, emphasizing enhanced risks of weather-related extreme events, for use in mitigating losses and maximizing economic gains.” • Focus: weeks, months, seasons, years • Official products for the U.S. • Forecasts in collaboration with other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices, other agencies and labs • Integral to NWS Seamless Suite of Products 2007/08

  5. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits Service Center Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months Week 2 Hazards Assessment CPC 2 Week Climate/Weather Linkage 6-10 Day Forecast 1 Week NDFD, Days 4 -7 HPC OPC TPC Days • Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 • Tropical Storms to Day 5 • Severe Weather to Day 3 SPC AWC SWPC Hours Minutes Health Maritime Aviation Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Environment Fire Weather Life & Property Emergency Mgmt Energy Planning Space Operations Reservoir Control The NCEP Centers span Seamless Suite

  6. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits NCEP Model Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months Climate Forecast System 2 Week North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate/Weather Linkage 1 Week Global Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Days Ocean Model Hurricane Models North American Forecast Hours Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation • GFDL • WRF Dispersion Models for DHS Minutes Health Maritime Aviation Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Environment Fire Weather NCEPs model production suite provides guidance for climate prediction Life & Property Emergency Mgmt Energy Planning Space Operations Reservoir Control

  7. FY07 Highlights - CPC Performance Goals • Exceeded official GPRA goal for US Seasonal Temperature Forecast skill • Unprecedented & sustained increases in skill during weak ENSO Transition Activities • CTB Grants Program: FY07 AO ($580K– 4 projects); FY08 AO ($1.1M) New & Improved Climate Products • Monitoring – stormtracks, monsoons, oceans, drought; GIS-conversion • Assessments – Climate Diagnostics Bulletin; Hazards (U.S., Africa, Tropics) • Outlooks – NAEFS week-2 for T; consolidation tool; objective verification tool Outreach • NOAA - 4 press conferences & 8 web articles (outlooks) • El Niño 2006 - 07 – some impacts (e.g. fewer Atl Hurricanes in 2006); • Lead role in NAME (e.g. May Issue of J. Clim. on NAME - 22 articles) • Host/train international visitors—African Desk (6); Asia bi-laterals(3)

  8. U.S. Seasonal Temperature Forecast Skill CPC has improved the skill of its official seasonal outlooks, in part, by using more objective techniques (e.g. consolidation tool). [O’Lenic et al. 2007]. There is a regime dependence of skill depending on the influence of the major climate factors, including ENSO and trend. Note decrease in variability last 1-2 years. (0.5 Month Lead – 4 yr running avg vs. GPRA Goal) (0.5 Month Lead)

  9. Storm Track Monitoring Products http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/stormtracks/mstrack.shtml • Global coverage (NH, SH, Alaska) • WX-CX linkage: Overlays of stormtracks, precipitation, low-level wind anomalies, wave heights, and sea ice • Monitoring products (10, 30, 90 days) • Forecast products (operational and ensemble mean GFS; week 1 & 2) • Collaboration with EMC & OPC

  10. Monsoon Monitoring Products http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml • Global and Regional Monsoons (Asian, American, African..) • Overlays of many fields (SST, soil moisture, winds, temperature, precip) • Monitoring products (7, 30, 90 days) • Weekly updates to US and Global Hazards forecasters and monthly updates for Monthly Climate Review

  11. Ocean Monitoring Products • Climatology, monthly, pentad plots and animations • SST, Sea level, heat content, depth 20C, surface wind stress animations & 30 day averages

  12. Monitoring (GIS Format) GIS: Geographical Information System A popular format that allows meteorological fields to be superposed over topography, rivers, roads, and cities. GIS format is preferred by many users. CPC is working with NCO to convert its monitoring and outlook products

  13. Climate Diagnostics Bulletin • Electronic (PDF): b&w, color • Improved graphics • Expanded suite of products • ocean products based on GODAS; • intraseasonal monitoring based on CDAS & GDAS

  14. NCEP and CPO Climate Support: Climate Test Bed Climate Community Climate Test Bed Research & Development NOAA Climate Forecast Operations Mission:To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services.

  15. NCEP and CPO Climate Support: Climate Test Bed • The CTB is a resource to accelerate scientific advances to operations • Bridging the “Valley of Death” between research & operational service applications • Embracing the R2O and O2R paradigms • The CTB emphasizes high profile science activities • CFS/GFS Improvements (CFSRR) • Multi-model ensembles (IMME, NMME) • Objective climate forecast products and applications (drought / NIDIS) • Competitive Grants Program • CTB-COLA Seminar Series • CPC-RISA Program • Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program (FY09)

  16. Future Challenges • Climate • Warming trend • Abrupt changes and regime shifts • Natural variability (annual cycle, El Niño, monsoons, MJO, AO) • Extremes (heat waves, storms, droughts) Goal: Align infrastructure & establish partnerships to achieve mission goals focused on these challenges!

  17. Strategic Challenges Improve products Improve models Meet National / International commitments Address Challenges Product alignment (quality, consistency, reliability) Inventory ENSO composites Verification of official forecasts & tools Precipitation analyses & related products Coordination of drought, monsoon briefings with operations Next generation CFS (with EMC) CFS Reanalysis and Reforecasting Multi Model Ensemble Prediction System (w EMC) SI Forecast skill Agency support (e.g. USDA; USAID) Project support (e.g. AMMA, NAME) CPC Strategy (0-2 yr)

  18. Strategic Challenges Improve products Improve models Meet National / International commitments Address Challenges New Probabilistic Forecasts for weeks 2-4 (risks of heat or cold waves; heavy rain events) Objective seasonal drought prediction; NIDIS Objective seasonal TC forecasts (freq; intensity) Diagnostic and modeling studies Reduce tropical biases Understand climate processes Influences of MJO on ENSO & vice-versa Global Climate Training Program Provide leadership in NOAA’s CIS Program CPC Strategy (2-5 yr)

  19. Strategic Challenges Improve products Improve models Improve Climate Services Address Challenges Collaborative product suites (air quality, ecosystems, human health, H2O mgmt) Earth System models (The “E” in NCEP) Seamless prediction (Wx-Cx link; SI & beyond) Physical understanding of trends National Climate Information Service (International?) Economic benefits of climate forecast products CPC Strategy (>5 yr)

  20. Message • NOAA/NCEP provide critical operational support for delivery of climate products and services: • Observations • Models and Assimilation Systems • Computing Support • Products and Forecast Services • CPC focus: deliver climate forecast products (weeks, months, seasons, years) to serve a diverse customer base. • Collaboration is a key element of future success in addressing climate challenges: • CPO, NASA, NCAR, GFDL, ESRL, NCDC, IRI, COLA, Univ., RISAs, others • New initiatives, such as the CTB, are opportunities to accelerate Research  Operations Operations  Research.

  21. Back-up Slides

  22. Outline • Message • The Climate Mission • NWS and NCEP Climate Support • FY07 Highlights - CPC • Future Challenges • CPC Strategy • Message

  23. NWS Support for Climate Services • All NCEP products linked directly to: • 122 Weather Forecast Offices • 13 River Forecast Centers • 22 Central Weather Service Units • Regional climate models for “downscaling” purposes • NWS Regions assigned climate focal points for each station  with training – outreach materials • Coop modernization  Climate Reference Network

  24. NCEP Climate Support: Computing $20M/Year Investment Of which $5M is for Climate Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) • Receives Over 123 Million Global Observations Daily • Sustained Computational Speed: 450 Billion Calculations/Sec • Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day • Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) • Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) • Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) • Backup in Fairmont, WV

  25. Collaborate Across NCEP, NOAA & Beyond Enhance collaboration with NCEP centers • NCO: transition to compute farm; GIS-conversion; GrADS • EMC: CFS reanalysis and re-forecast to support model calibration • HPC: coordinate the International Desks • OPC: probabilistic storm track products and ocean monitoring products • TPC: need for and science behind seasonal TC forecasts • SPC: bridge SPC day 4-8 and CPC day 8-14 outlooks • AWC: backup site for CPC forecast products • SEC: evaluate representation of stratosphere in SEC model Enhance collaboration with Climate Program • Transition activities (CTB competitive grants programs) • International Activities (Global Climate Training Program – FY 10-14) • National Climate Information Service

  26. NCEP’s Future Location NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction UMD Research Park, College Park

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