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The Human Population: Patterns, Processes, and Problematics Lecture #11: Ch 7 Migration

The Human Population: Patterns, Processes, and Problematics Lecture #11: Ch 7 Migration. Paul Sutton psutton@du.edu Department of Geography University of Denver.

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The Human Population: Patterns, Processes, and Problematics Lecture #11: Ch 7 Migration

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  1. The Human Population:Patterns, Processes, and ProblematicsLecture #11: Ch 7 Migration Paul Sutton psutton@du.edu Department of Geography University of Denver

  2. “The sole cause of man’s unhappiness,” quipped Pascal in the seventeenth century, “is that he does not know to stay quietly in his room.” If this is so, unhappiness is enjoying unprecedented popularity as people are choosing to leave their rooms, so to speak, in record numbers. Sometimes they are fleeing from unhappiness; sometimes they are producing it. Always they are responding to – and, in their turn, creating – change. Because migration brings together people who have probably grown up with quite different views of the world, ways of approaching life, attitudes, and behavior patterns, it contributes to many of the tensions that confront the world, leading Kingsley Davis to comment that “so dubious are the advantages of immigration that one wonders why the governments of industrial nations favor it.” The popular literature reflects this ambivalence. Comments such as “Emigration is an unnatural act between consenting adults…. An act of desperation, endured by immigrants and hosts alike without gratitude or sympathy, a placebo, not a cure.”; “Boat People arouse Japan’s xenophobia.”; “Immigrants to Europe from the third world face racial animosity.”; and “Black coalition frets over influx of skilled foreigners.” reflect the concern surrounding the influx of strangers into our midst.

  3. Some migration trivia • 150 million now live outside the country they were born in. • This number is growing faster than the global population • Mexican Adage: • “Don’t ask God to give it to you, ask him to put you where it is.”

  4. Big International Migrations • Mexicans to the United States • Algerians to France • Moroccans to Spain • Turks to Germany

  5. The “Migration Transition”(part of the demographic transition) • Local population growth changes ratio of people to resources forcing migration • Cheap ground, water, and air transportation works in tandem with population growth to create unprecedented migration streams

  6. Types of Migration • Internal Migration (in U.S. defined as changing county of residence) • International Migration (changing country of residence) • Often Rural to Urban (in both cases) • Rural to Urban migration contributes to demographic transition

  7. The Urban Transition (Ch 11)(migration has no biological component)

  8. Interdependence of Migration, Fertility, and Mortality • Migration often has more local impact on a place than fertility or mortality • These local effects can be significant for both sending and receiving areas

  9. Overview of Chapter 7 • How do we define, measure, and conceptualize the migration process? • Why do people migrate? • What are the consequences of migration? • What are contemporary patterns of migration around the world today?

  10. Defining Migration • “A permanent change of residence” • Inherently spatial phenomenon (geographic) • Mobility is NOT migration • Seasonal Workers, Sojourners (international migrants seeking temp employment in other countries), Tourists, etc. are NOT migrants • Mover (changes residence within a place like a county) • “All migrants are movers but not all movers are migrants”

  11. Fuzzy Definitions • 1) Transients: hobos & other wandering souls • 2) Nomads: pastoralists moving livestock • 3) People whose residence is always changing are tough to characterize. Demographers generally ignore them with the argument that they represent a small fraction of the population.

  12. Clearer Definitions • Internal Migration • Out-migrant • In-migrant • International Migration • Emigrant • immigrant

  13. Internal vs. International Migrant is an important distinction • 1) Much more difficult to cross International borders • 2) Consequently international migrants are generally much more motivated • 3) International migrants much more likely to cross cultural, linguistic, and political boundaries also. • U.N. Definition of “Long Term Immigrant” Anyone who crosses political boundary and stays for more than a year.

  14. Types of International Immigrants • Legal Immigrants • Illegal Immigrants (undocumented) • Refugees • Asylees

  15. Refugees • U.N. Definition: “Any person who is outside his or her country and is unable or unwilling to return to that country because of persecution or a well-founded fear of persecution. Claims of persecution may be based on race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or public opinion.” • Question: Can a Chinese Christian claim asylum/refugee status based on the “One-Child” policy’s violation of their religion?

  16. Asylum • A geographic twist on ‘refugee’. • “An asylee is a refugee who is already in the country to which they are applying for admission, whereas a refugee is outside of the country they are trying to get into at the time of application” • Examples anyone?

  17. Legal, Illegal, Asylee, Refugee..Who cares? • “Migration is an activity carried out by people under varying legal and socio-political circumstances. If we have this much trouble DEFINING migration, you can be sure that it is hard to measure.” • Note: Definitions DO matter which is why many migrants to U.S. and other places claim “political asylum”. Once in the country due process can take so long that they simply “fade in” to the country they claim asylum in.

  18. Measuring Migration • NOT a piece of cake. • 1) No biological component (births & deaths are relatively easy compared to change of residence) • Temporal Scale Problems • Spatial Scale Problems • What does “permanent’ mean? • What does “residence” mean?

  19. “Actual” Measurement Problems • Most information about Migration in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada comes from a question like: “Where were you living ‘N’ years ago?” (This repsresents a temporal scale problem right there) • Factoids: From 2000 Current Population Survey 1) 16% of U.S. population 1 year or older lived in a different house the year before. 2) 6% were Migrants (crossed county lines) 3) 0.6 % were Immigrants from another country American Community Survey will make same measurements American Housing Survey will track residential mobility

  20. More “Actual” measurement Problems • The INS tracks legal immigrants. • The INS does not track emigrants • Same story in Canada • This is in contrast to most European countries that have a population register • Most countries of the world have squat for measuring migration. Estimates you do see are based on surveys.

  21. Chinese Migration Measurement Problem • 1) One child policy impacts ‘federal’ revenue streams to Cantons (states) • 2) Canton’s with low rates of Natural Increase get more $ than those with high rates • 3) Natural Increase measured simply by Total population at T2 minus Total Population at T1 • 4) All Canton’s claimed significant (inflated) inmigration numbers. • 5) Result: 30% underestimate of total population of China.

  22. Imagine Understanding U.S. internal Migration at the State level • Each state sends some number of people to each of the other 49 states (this # can be 0) • Each state recieves some number of people from each of the other 49 states (This # can be 0 too) • At a minimum it would require a 50 x 50 matrix of numbers to describe inter-state migration in the U.S. for a given period of time. • That’s 2500 numbers. How can someone ‘Grok’ that? How could it be mapped?

  23. Migration Measurements • Gross Rate of out-migration • Gross Rate of in-migration • Crude Net Migration Rate • Total Migration Rate • Migration Turnover Rate • Migration Effectiveness • Migration Ratio

  24. Gross Rate of Out-Migration • This is simply a crude measure of how many people are leaving. It is not a ‘net’ number so a country can be growing from migration even with a high Gross rate of out-migration.

  25. Gross Rate of In-Migration • This a crude measure of influx of people. Like the crude rate of out-migration a country or region can have a high rate of in-migration and still be de-populating if the Crude rate of Out-Migration is higher.

  26. Crude Net Migration Rate (CNMR) • This number is the way to measure population change of a country or region due to migration. However, it does not take into account the magnitude of migration. For example: Given country X with population one million. 100,000 out-migrants and 120,000 in-migrants will have same CNMR as 5,000 out-migrants and 25,000 in migrants.

  27. Total Migration Rate • This number measures what fraction of the population is migrating. It does not tell you whether the population is growing or shrinking from migration.

  28. Migration Turnover Rate • If you do the algebra this is simply: In + Out / In – out It results in a number describing the ratio of total migrants to the net result or impact on the population of the region in question.

  29. Migration Effectiveness (E) • This is simply the inverse of the Migration Turnover Rate. This number is essentially a percentage impact of migration on the total population of a country or region.

  30. Migration Ratio • This is a way of measuring the contribution that migration makes to population growth. • Question: Juan & Maria migrate to U.S. in 1992 and subsequently have 3 children. Is their impact on the U.S. population +5 from migration or +2 from migration and +3 from natural increase?

  31. Actual U.S. migration Numbers • In 1990 (April 1) The census counted 248,709,873 residents. • Between April 1, 1990 and April 1, 2000 there were 39,865,670 births and 22,715,464 deaths • Natural increase: 39,865,670-22,715,464 = 14,150,206 • Estimated 2000 U.S. Pop (no migration) 248,709,873 + 14,150,206 = 265,860,079 • Census 2000 Actually measured: 281,421,906 • The difference: 281,421,906 - 265,860,079 = 15,561,827 is declared to be the result of immigration. • The migration ratio is then 15,561,827 / 14,150,206 x 1000 = 1099 • Which essentially says 50% of U.S. population growth is due to in-migration. But this is a deceptive number because of all of ‘Juan and Maria’s’ children who were counted as natural increase.

  32. Next Up: Why do people Migrate? • Revenstein’s Laws • Push – Pull Theory • Dual Labor Market Theory • And much, much, more Fuuuuun.

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