BREAK THE VICIOUS CIRCLE OF DISASTERS: FROM LIVING IN RISK TO LIVING WITH RISK

1. BREAK THE VICIOUS CIRCLE OF DISASTERS: FROM LIVING IN RISK TO LIVING WITH RISK Post Disaster Needs Assessment - PDNA What is it? Why do we need it? What does it aim at doing? How can we see if it is feasible?

2. The increasing concern on properly assessing human/social needs: the human faces of post-conflict and post disaster pose more than a methodological challenge ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

3. The PDNA • A process, a framework for coordination and cooperation and a tool for integrated post disaster assessment • ECLAC’s experience: an analytical tool to determine damage and losses • A systemic, integrated approach that moves from early to longer term needs to recovery and reconstruction • An cooperative effort that encompasses the UN system’s agencies knowledge and experience • The specific need of post disaster early recovery needs assessment. How response can lead to resilience and sustainability • A tool for increased capacity to respond at the country level: • Government capacity building and strengthening pre-disaster recovery preparation • International donors, financial institutions and UN country team’s pre-positioning to ensure prompt coordinated action ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

4. Synergies are starting to happen • Collaboration in the field: REDLAC, UNETT • Concrete examples of collaboration: • ILO/FAO development of a livelihood assessment methodology that fits into a PDNA process • UN-HABITAT development of a rapid needs assessment • Try/rehearseal of developing methodologies in a specicif case: the Bolivia El Niño 2007 assessment • Synergy with IFIs (IDB in LAC, WB ongoing work and framework for WB/UN joint post-disaster assessment) ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

5. PDNA for Recovery (visit the google group) This development of a PDNA is seen as a three-staged process: • A stocktaking exercise (being completed at present) • Analysis of the similarities, potential overlapping and gaps (as derived from stocktaking exercise) • Proposal of guidelines and tools for their harmonization and application in a way that avoids duplication and proposes integrated assessment (to be completed by July 2007) ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

6. The current products of the PDNA • PDNA Project Deliverables • Review of post disaster recovery needs assessment methodologies (Deliverable 1) • PDNA Review of needs assessment_ joint draft 2_CB and SK.doc • Annex 4 Table of multisectoral methodologies_Draft 2.xls • prepared by Christina Bollin and Shivani Khanna.  The review includes methodologies and tools used by different stakeholders (governments, UN agencies, INGOs, NGOs, etc), especially during recent disasters in Asia and Latin America.  Representative rather than exhaustive, it maps a number of existing and emerging recovery assessment methodologies.  It goes on to review experiences, lessons, gaps and trends related to their use and development.  These are translated into recommendations for the development of the PDNA guide. • Practical guide to engendering post disaster needs assessment (Deliverable 2) • EngenderPDNArev1.doc • prepared by Savitri Bisnath.  The guide is intended to inform the development of the main PDNA guide (deliverable 2) and ensure that the PDNA adequately addresses specific and differential needs and priorities of women and girls as well as men and boys from marginalized communities • Guide for Post Disaster Needs Assessment (deliverable 2) • PDNA PRELIM VERSIONrevrzm.doc • prepared by Ricardo Zapata.  Deliverable 2 is the centre-piece of the PDNA project and is intended as a practical guide to a coordinated post disaster needs assessment for recovery process from the collection of data on damage and losses; through a consultative process to arrive at a shared conclusion with regard to early as well as longer term recovery needs; to actionable recommendations for programming and resource mobilization.  While the current draft gives much attention to the “what” of a PDNA, it is agreed with ECLAC that the “how to” will need much further development in accordance with the objectives of the first phase of the PDNA project • Damage and Loss Assessments / Information Management Component Guides and Toolkit (Deliverable 3): • Identification of existing damage and losses information and data management practices • Practical implementation strategy of IM tools as required for  PDNA • Information requirements for damage and loss assessments • Presentation: PDNA-Information Management Toolkit •  Prepared by Julio Serje identification of existing damage and losses information and data management practices; information requirements for damage and loss assessments; and practical implementation of tools as required for a PDNA.  Together with two information management tools under development, these reports represent deliverable 3 of the first phase of the PDNA project. ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

7. Why a Post-disaster recovery needs assessment process? • Not a new methodology: building on existing tools and knowledge • Promote coherence, consistency and appropriate response that leads to recovery • Insert in a systemic risk management process as part of development agenda • Allow transition from emergency to recovery, recuperation and reconstruction • Similar in content to PCNA, to launch joint concerted assessment process • CAPACITY BUILDING: at the national level within governmental institutions and to the UN country team to enable pre-disaster response capabilities ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

8. Why a Post-disaster recovery needs assessment process? Objectives of the Early Recovery Needs Assessment • Identify priority programme interventions that facilitate early recovery and transition, with involvement of different stakeholders in a rapid, coordinated manner. • Assess key vulnerabilities and identify how these will be strategically addressed over the short to medium post disaster. • Identify and anticipate spontaneous early recovery efforts and devise strategies to accelerate and strengthen local capacities to support these. • It is important to get as complete a picture as possible of the early recovery needs of the different socio-economic, gender, age and minority groups. • Promote joint capacities and incorporate existing DANAs beyond the emergency through integrated approach and pre-response agreement on cooperation ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

9. HUMAN ACTIONS (VULNERABILITY) ENVIRONMENT CHANGE (RISK) NATURAL PHENOMENA (HAZARD) ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

10. BREAK THE VICIOUS CIRCLE OF DISASTERSAdapted from Mora, “El impacto de los desastres, aspectos sociales, políticos económicos, ambientales y su relación con el desarrollo de nuestros países (BID/IADB, 1999) LEVEL OF RISK AND ENSUING NEGATIVE IMPACT IS REDUCED Avoid improvisation POST-DISASTER RESPONSE DISASTER COOPERATION AND SYNERGIES TO ACCELERATE RECOVERY * EXPERIENCE IS NOT FORGOTTEN AND EXPERIENCE LEADS TO MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION DOCUMENT AND VALUE NEEDS AND RESPONSE PLAN RECONSTRUCITON TO INCREASE RESILIENCE AND REDUCE VULNERABILITY ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

11. PCNA and PDNAOverlap and complementarities The difference lies in the root causes of the crisis in a post disaster and a post crisis scenario ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

12. ] New Gap ] An additional deficit is created from the pre-existing gap between the prevalent situation vis-à-vis the development goals and the emerging recovery objectives. ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

13. The “Ocean of Needs”(illustrated by the health sector) ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

14. The Post Conflict process moves from agreed objectives to quantification of damages and needs to obtain results predefined in results framework Consensus, negotiated goals The Post Disaster process requires an assessment of damages, losses and needs to define a recovery/reconstruction strategy to be framed in a results oriented framework Consensus, negotiated goals ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

15. International Level The complex link between disasters, poverty and development National Level RESOURCE MOBILIZATION Macroeconomic equilibria IMF commitments Millennium Development Goals National planning ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

16. HUMAN • Health • Education • Livelihoods • Housing and shelter • Cultural identity SOCIAL Social capital and social networks (solidarity and equity) Family ties, gender perspective and extended family networks and links Violence, security and rights NATURE / ENVIRONMENT Clean water, wage disposal and sanitation Clean air Biodiversity and integrity of ecosystems Climate variability and change • PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE • Quality and resilience of human built environment (settlements and rural/urban planning) • Transport and communications, energy and other basic lifelines • Productive infrastructure • Other built infrastructure (public services, government buildings) • POLITICAL • Governance • Transparency • Participation, inclusion and political rights • Access to information • FINANCIAL • Access to credit • Land tenure, legal rights • Compensatory mechanisms and funds • Insurance and financial protection ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

17. The terminology issues • Recovery and reconstruction: two parts of one process or one encompasses the other? • Recovery and reconstruction are misnomers for the aspiration to use disaster as opportunity to move forward the development agenda • Build back better: resilience as part of the recovery and reconstruction (adaptation and mitigation) • Any post disaster scenario leads to a different place: whether deliberate or involuntary disasters lead to a different place (the hysteresis effect) ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

18. Resilience: bend and not brake, strong but flexible for DRR • Adaptation • Build resilience in the recovery and reconstruction process • Mitigation • Reduce negative impact in response and recovery The “do no harm” principle for interventions ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

19. Hysteresis: you never bounce back to where you were before • The mathematical theory of systems with hysteresis is a chapter of nonlinear analysis. While based on physical ideas, it also extends them to abstract science, enabling the analysis to be of quite general character. • Hysteresis is a strongly nonlinear phenomenon which occur in many industrial, physical and economic systems. • System with hysteresis exhibits path-dependence. If a system has hysteresis, we can't predict the output without looking at the history of the input. In order to predict the output, we must look at the path that the input followed before it reached its current value. A system with hysteresis has memory. • Economic agents, because of fixed or sunk costs of adjustment, adjust discontinuously to changes in state variables and have different trigger points for adjustment. ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

20. Superposing Losses, Economic Recovery and Reconstruction Effects on GDP Growth Growth Gap ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

21. MITCH STAN DROUGHT EARTHQUAKE ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

22. Impact of disasters on GDP: State of Gujarat, India Drought Earthquake Cyclone Drought Floods Floods Cyclone Drought Drought Drought ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

23. The Timing of Disaster Effects: a reminder Recovery needs (fill the gap from immediate response to recovery in order to reduce losses) Emergency needs Full Reconstruction and Economic Recovery Damage 5 yrs Losses Time, months ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

24. the PDNA “framework” analysis collection of data Beyond Before During ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

25. the PDNA “framework” ! ! results framework 1) ! ! 2) analysis 3) collection of data Beyond Before During ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

26. Recovery needs (fill the gap from immediate response to reconstruction in order to reduce losses) Post Disaster Recovery Reconstruction Development Plans and Programmes (UNDAF, CAS) Emergency Response Needs Assessment RECONSTRUCTION – BACK TO DEVELOPMENT NEEDS Data RECOVERY (FRAMEWORK) NEEDS EARLY RECOVERY NEEDS EMERGENCY NEEDS Before After Quick and dirty (Flash appeal) 3-7 days Local level Area based Community Driven 2 weeks Recovery Framework (Donors Conference) 1 month Reconstruction Strategy (IFIs working Group) 2-3 months ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

27. The road to a common framework • A framework for an integrated, non duplicative synergic assessment of disaster impacts is proposed that takes into account: • The overlapping phases in disasters • The cross cutting impact of damage, losses and needs • The synergic approach by building from sector and local impacts • The connection between PCNA and PDNA: differences and parallelisms • Proposals for a better PD response are to include: • National capacity enhancement • International response coordination • Linkage of PDNA and national/international development goals • How, when and where to apply a PDNA involves clear notions of. • Timeframe • Local capacities • External interventions ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

28. Timeline The PDNA “framework” Common objectives, diverse tools and proposals, leading to coherent integrated strategy Results Framework: Diverse actionalble proposals but coherent, strategically consistent as “back to development” process 1) ! ! ! ! 2) Analysis: diverse but compatible, additionality and complementarity (synergic) 3) Collection of data: compatibility, comparability, transitability (multi use) Beyond Before During ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

29. Integrated PDNA framework/mosaic decision tree (from DALA to Recovery NAFs) PDNA Need Need WFP UNEP Disaster relief and recovery needs UN HABITAT Need Capacity Need Loss and need assessment “branches” Need Coping Coping DANA/UNDAC-OCHA WHO FAO / ILO LAT loss loss loss loss loss VALUATION “TRUNK” PHYSICAL DAMAGE ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

30. Trunk of commonalities, branches allow for integrated mosaic of interventions (from DALA to Recovery NAFs) Reconstruction Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Reconstruction Recovery Recovery Recovery Recovery Recovery LOSSES LOSSES LOSSES PRICING LOSSES LOSSES Common trunk DAMAGE QUANTIFICATION DISASTER ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata RESPONSE CAPACITY

31. Existing Needs assessments in the context of humanitarian response and Recovery EFSA WFP INEE Standards RHA WHO MRA UNICEF NAF OCHA FAO/ILO ILIA ECLAC UNDAC EDAN USAID PDNA Bangladesh DANA Vietnam NAER Pakistan REDLAC Emerg. Assest IFRC CDADA ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

32. A “Cartesian perspective”: the axis to put needs in perspective EMERGENCY – RESPONSE – RECOVERY – REHABILIATION - RECONSTRUCTION HORIZONTALLY: data collection, information management that leads to multi-tiered analysis from emergency through reconstruction CROSS CUTTING, INCLUSIVE OF SECTORS’S EXPERTISE AND INSTITUTIONS Existing or developing sector methodologies (shelter, food security, WASH, livelihoods, environment, etc.) ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

33. FROM LOCAL TO REGIONAL – NATIONAL - INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT RECONSTRUCTION RECOVERY NEEDS PRE-EXISTING RISK CONDITIONS BASELINE ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

34. PDNA RISK REDUCTION MEASURES

35. A central cross cutting aspect: the gender perspective • PDNA will deliberately and specifically include a gender perspective on at least three levels: • (i) sex disaggregated (along with age and ethnic identity) information from the base line to the emergency and recovery needs steps, • (ii) identify gender specific losses as derived from the damage (identifying both the ownership and use of assets in a sex disaggregated analysis); and • (iii) identify the different roles played by men and women, particularly during the emergency and early recovery, and the mechanisms through which those roles facilitate women's more proactive participation and empowerment, and the ways in which they can be strengthened. ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

36. The PDNA should be seen as a process • it covers a gap between existing instruments in the humanitarian and the reconstruction/development areas; • it is intended to create a common framework around already existing sectoral, or partial scope methodologies; • it should also identify and cover gaps related to assessment of early and longer term recovery requirements; • it should support assessment over the timeline of a disaster response, including providing an overview of early recovery requirements in the first days after impact, followed by more in-depth assessment at community or district level and later, support the development of a national strategy linking to reconstruction and financing methodology; • Recognize the central role of governments for post disaster recovery needs assessment and planning, for which the PDNA should also function as a capacity building tool – ideally to be internalized in pre-disaster planning and capacity development in high risk disaster prone countries. • Not unlike the PCNA in its aims, it addresses different root causes that lead to crisis and elicit interventions to respond both in humanitarian and development terms. • It is to be linked and “frame” ongoing efforts (at cluster´s level, as part of the IRP, as part of the UNDP´s role in the Early Recovery cluster) ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

37. A framework • A framework for an integrated, non duplicative synergic assessment of disaster impacts is proposed that takes into account: • The overlapping phases in disasters • The cross cutting impact of damage, losses and needs • The synergic approach by building from sector and local impacts • The connection between PCNA and PDNA: differences and parallelisms • Proposals for a better PD response are to include: • National capacity enhancement • International response coordination • Linkage of PDNA and national/international development goals • How, when and where to apply a PDNA involves clear notions of. • Timeframe • Local capacities • External interventions ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

38. Needs Assessment Process for Humanitarian Disasters (UN HABITAT) Pre-disaster: development phase IN COORDINATION WITH NATIONAL/LOCAL AUTHORITIES Disaster: relief and response phase IN COORDINATION WITH NATIONAL/LOCAL AUTHORITIES 13. Early recovery planning– Development of plans to implement early recovery counter measures 1. Development reports–Ongoing monitoring of development in countries which have/may confront disasters Illustrative authorities, systems and tools: UN Millennium Development Indicators; UNDP Human Development Index;ECHO Vulnerability and Crisis Index TIMEFRAME: ONGOING ACTIVITY 7. Alerting– Production and dissemination of alerts regarding actual or possible humanitarian disasters (severity, exposure, vulnerability) Illustrative systems: Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System – Provides near real-time alerts about natural disasters around the world HEWS – Provider of analysis of possible occurrence of disasters TIMEFRAME: FIRST 12 HOURS 14. Flash Appeal– Production and issuance of a flash appeal 15. Early recovery operations– Implementation of early recovery plans based on the response to the flash appeal TIMEFRAME: 72 HOURS TO 2 WEEKS 2. Research– Identification of guiding authorities for post-disaster needs assessment (all phases) Illustrative authorities: Chambers and Conway “Sustainable Livelihoods: Practical Concepts for the 21st Century” ; Australian Standard AS/NZS 4360:2004 Risk Management. TIMEFRAME: ONGOING ACTIVITY 8. Technical loss estimation– Production and dissemination of technical estimates of hazard severity Illustrative authority: WAPMERR – Provides loss estimates for M6 earthquakes in populated areas TIMEFRAME: FIRST HOURS Post-disaster: recovery phase (rehabilitation and reconstruction) IN COORDINATION WITH NATIONAL/LOCAL AUTHORITIES 16. Needs assessment – recovery – Analysis and recommendation of counter measures to restore or improve pre-disaster development outcomes Illustrative tools: ECLAC Handbook for Estimating the Socio-Economic and Environmental Effects of Disasters; GTZ, UNDP, World Bank, UNDG Practical Guide to Multilateral Needs Assessments in Post-Conflict Situations 9. Information flow – Facilitation of the flow of operational information Illustrative systems: OCHA-OSOCC; OCHA-ReliefWeb; GLIDE ; UNOSAT –Provider and coordinator of disaster satellite images and maps TIMEFRAME: FIRST 12 HOURS 3. Quality control– Development and dissemination of standards for post-disaster needs assessment tools and systems Examples: agreed indicators; agreed timelines; agreed information flow; agreed terminology TIMEFRAME: ONGOING ACTIVITY 10. Needs assessment – relief and response – Analysis and recommendation of relevant counter measures Illustrative tools: OCHA situation reports; SPHERE Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards TIMEFRAME: FIRST 24 HOURS 17. Recovery planning– Development of plans to implement recovery (rehabilitation and reconstruction) counter measures 4. Tool and system development / inventory– Design, testing and inventory of systems and tools for steps 7 to19 across all clusters TIMEFRAME: ONGOING ACTIVITY 18. Donor Conference– Conduct of a donor conference 11. Relief and response planning – Development of plans to implement relief and response counter measures TIMEFRAME: FIRST 48 HOURS 19. Project Management– Implementation and monitoring of recovery plans based on response to donor conference TIMEFRAME: 3 WEEKS ONWARDS 5. Base-line data pre-loading– Identification of baseline data sources and pre-loading tools and systems Illustrative sources: UN Millennium Development Indicators; UNDP Human Development index; ECHO Vulnerability and Crisis Index TIMEFRAME: ONGOING ACTIVITY Post-disaster: early recovery phase COORDINATION WITH NATIONAL/LOCAL AUTHORITIES 12. Needs assessment – early recovery – Analysis and recommendation of relevant counter measures Illustrative authorities, systems and tools: Immediate Shelter Impact Assessment; Immediate Livelihood Impact Assessment; Methodology Rapid Assessment for Humanitarian Assistance 6. Training, exercises and awareness– Design and conduct of programming for persons completing and receiving post-disaster needs assessments as well as appeal documents TIMEFRAME:ONGOING ACTIVITY Repeat from Step 1 ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

39. ILO – FAO LIVELIHOOD ASSESSMENT SEQUENCE ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

40. The Assessment Cycle, according to the IFRC Guidelines for Emergency Assessment (2005) ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

41. The Needs Analysis Framework (NAF) was developed by the IASC CAP Cluster Working Group and the UN OCHA, to ‘strengthen the analysis and presentation of humanitarian needs in the Consolidated Appeals Process.’ ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

42. The Post Disaster process requires an assessment of damages, losses and needs to define a recovery/reconstruction strategy to be framed in a results oriented framework Consensus, negotiated goals DISASTER ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

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46. WHAT IS PDNA INTENDED TO BE(built upon the experience of the ECLAC methodology): • A tool for the socio-economic and environmental assessment of disasters • Multi-sectoral and multidisciplinary damage evaluation and quantification method for disaster affected sectors • Standard sectoral procedures that allows comparability of results • Instrument for the decision making process and for policy formulation as it identifies more severely affected sectors, geographical areas and vulnerable groups • Conceptual improvement for measuring aspects not included in sectoral or partial and humanitarian needs assessments and quantify and express damages, losses and needs that arise after a disaster, assessing specific vulnerability (of social groups, such as women and the environment) ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

47. WHAT SHOULD A PDNA DO: • Allow projecting future performance of the affected economy/society/community in the short and medium term, and implement the necessary corrective policy measures • Allow to determine the State’s (government at all levels and society in general) capacity to face reconstruction tasks and determine needs for cooperation and international financing • Facilitate training in damage valuation and formulation of mitigation strategies • Involve affected population with relevant authorities and aid providers • Put in evidence the systemic character of the development process and the interaction among sectors and stakeholders • Harmonize, consolidate and coordinate tools, analysis and recommendations for programming and interventions among all stakeholders ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

48. How to do a PDNA • The PDNA is envisaged as a “how to”, practical guide to conduct and coordinate three interlinked processes: • Collection of data on damage and losses and underlying factors that explain the disaster (both crucially relevant for recovery) • Consultation for the analysis of such data leading to integrated conclusions (in respect of recovery needs and capacities) • Proposing actionable recommendations for programming and resource mobilization and allocation (at the different stages) ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

49. Social Sectors Housing Health Education, culture, sports Infrastructure Transport and communications Energy Water and sewerage Productive sectors Goods: agriculture, industry Services: commerce, tourism, etc. Global impact On the environment Gender perspective Employment and social conditions Macroeconomic assessment SECTOR BY SECTOR VALUATION METHODOLOGY ECLAC/BCPR - Ricardo Zapata

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