Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX): Improving Hurricane Intensity Forecasts using Airborne Reconnaissance

1. Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX): Improving Hurricane Intensity Forecasts using Airborne Reconnaissance Robert Rogers NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division Miami, FL

2. Tropical Prediction Center Performance Measures Official 48-h forecast errors from 1990-2004 43% improvement for track 17% improvement for intensity Track (nm) Intensity (kt)

3. Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) • Multi-year effort to improve forecasts of hurricane intensity, structure, and rainfall • Provide data to improve the operational computer modeling system • Improve our understanding of intensity change, structure change, and rainfall

4. Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) • APPROACH • Data collected will support model development by addressing these aspects of a computer modeling system: 1) model initialization - representation of the initial state of the atmosphere, including the tropical cyclone 2) model parameterization - representation of physical processes not capable of being represented directly on model domain 3) model evaluation - rigorous, quantitative evaluation of model performance • Focus on providing measurements of tropical cyclones in multiple locations at all stages of the life cycle, from formation to intensification and subsequent landfall or decay over water.

5. 19 (3%) 30 (5%) 140 (24%) Tropical Disturbance Tropical Depression Tropical Storm Hurricane 387 (67%) Proportion of HRD Research Flights by Lifecycle Stage (1976-2004)

6. Partnerships with Other Experiments Tropical cyclone lifecycle and experiment coverage

7. Horizontal Vertical dBZ observed radar dBZ simulated radar stratiform stratiform stratiform stratiform rainband rainband eyewall eyewall Comparison of Observed and Simulated Radar Images