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IMPROVING RESPONSE

IMPROVING RESPONSE Steve Lyons The Weather Channel NHC Orlando, FL April 11, 2006 THE $100,000 QUESTION DOES THE MESSAGE NEED TO IMPROVE, OR DO THE PROCESSES AND THEIR OPTIONS NEED TO IMPROVE? THE MESSAGE STEVE’S 1 st LAW OF RESPONSE… NO INFORMATION IS BAD INFORMATION

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IMPROVING RESPONSE

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  1. IMPROVING RESPONSE Steve Lyons The Weather Channel NHC Orlando, FL April 11, 2006

  2. THE $100,000 QUESTION DOES THE MESSAGE NEED TO IMPROVE, OR DO THE PROCESSES AND THEIR OPTIONS NEED TO IMPROVE?

  3. THE MESSAGE • STEVE’S 1st LAW OF RESPONSE… NO INFORMATION IS BAD INFORMATION

  4. REQUIRED RESPONSE SHOULD BE FAR LESS SEVERE! • “POOR” FORECASTS • RISING POPULATIONS • INADEQUATE ROADS • NON LOCAL EVACUATIONS • INSUFFICIENT “LOCAL” SHELTER SPACE • INADEQUATE SHELTER SUPPORT • GET EM’ OUT OF THERE MENTALITY • POOR/UNSAFE CONSTRUCTION… ALL LEAD TO OVER RESPONSE BY FAR GREATER NUMBERS OF PEOPLE THAN IS NECESSARY. THIS IS BY ITSELF POOR RESPONSE

  5. “PHASED EVACUATIONS” • STEVE’S 2nd LAW OF RESPONSE… GREED COMBINED WITH IMPERFECT COMMUNICATIONS DICTATES “PHASING” WILL FAIL IN HIGH POPULATION AREAS!

  6. “PHASED EVACUATIONS” • DOES YOUR PUBLIC KNOW YOUR PHASES? • MAKE THE PROCESS AS SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE (REMOVE FAILURE POINTS)

  7. WHAT IS THE RISK? • NOT ALL CAT 3’s ARE EQUAL, SOME ARE FAR MORE DANGEROUS THAN OTHERS! • PROVIDE CONSISTENT “LOCALIZED” RESPONSE INFORMATION • EDUCATE THE PUBLIC ABOUT YOUR PLAN BEFORE YOU ASK THEM TO FOLLOW IT • GIVE PEOPLE GOOD REASONS & GOOD OPTIONS TO RESPOND

  8. Great Hurricane Galveston, TX 1900

  9. New England 1938

  10. Long Beach MS 2005!(after Katrina)

  11. EARLY EVACUATIONS • STEVE’S 3rd LAW OF RESPONSE… THE EARLIER YOU START THE EVACUATION THE LESS LIKELY IT WAS NECESSARY!

  12. POPULATION IS A HUGE ENEMY!

  13. FALSE ALARMS & BAD EXPERIENCE • EVACUATION FALSE ALARMS ARE RARELY FORGOTTEN

  14. FALSE ALARMS & BAD EXPERIENCE • STEVE’S 4th LAW OF RESPONSE… BAD EVACUATION EXPERIENCES ARE NEVER FORGOTTEN!

  15. SHELTERS & SAFE HAVENS • STEVE’S 5th LAW OF RESPONSE… THE MORE RESTRICTIONS YOU PUT ON SHELTERS, THE LESS LIKELY PEOPLE ARE TO USE THEM.

  16. SHELTERS & SAFE HAVENS • PETS ARE A PART OF THE FAMILY, DEAL WITH THEM • ALOCAL SAFE HAVEN IS A BEST OPTION (IF IT IS POSSIBLE)…THE REQUESTED RESPONSE IS LESS SEVERE!

  17. THE UNTESTED • STEVE’S 6th LAW OF RESPONSE… THE UNTESTED RESPONDERS WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST PROBLEMS!

  18. Tampa Florida…untested!

  19. THE COST! • STEVE’S 7TH LAW OF RESPONSE… YOU CAN NOT MOVE PROPERTY!

  20. THE COST 1. Katrina 2005   $75+ billion 2. Andrew 1992 30 3. Charley 2004 15 4. Ivan 2004 14 5. Wilma 2005 126. Rita 2005 10 7. Frances 2004 9 8. Hugo 1989 79. Jeanne 2004 710. Allison 2001 5 7 of the 10 costliest within the last 2 years!

  21. CONCLUSIONS MITIGATE EVACUATE WITHIN YOUR OWN HOME BE PREPARED EQUALLY WELL EVERY HURRICANE SEASON…TOTAL NUMBERS DON’T MEAN MUCH!

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