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systems analysis for restoring the lower colorado river delta

2. Outline. Water Issues in the Colorado River DeltaSystems Analysis and Computer ModelingModeling Colorado River Delta SystemConclusions. Space shuttle photograph of theBaja California Peninsula looking NorthSource: NASA. 3. Colorado River Delta Issues. Water scarcityLow flow regimes from Colorado RiverSalinityInvasive SpeciesDeterioration of Pacific Flyway habitat.

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systems analysis for restoring the lower colorado river delta

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    1. 1 Systems Analysis for Restoring the Lower Colorado River Delta Josué Medellín-Azuara & Jay R. Lund Ecology Graduate Group and Integrated Water–Environmental Systems Group University of California, Davis

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    3. 3 Colorado River Delta Issues Water scarcity Low flow regimes from Colorado River Salinity Invasive Species Deterioration of Pacific Flyway habitat

    4. 4 Baja California Water Issues Fast growing cities and potable water demands Water quality issues from untreated wastewater Saline intrusion Overexploitation of aquifers Water supply infrastructure

    5. 5 Transboundary Water Issues Coastal water quality in BC and CA Wastewater flows Lining of the All American Canal Groundwater flow and salinity Yuma desalting plant Soil salinity issues Water supply opportunities

    6. 6 Systems Analysis in Water Management Develop a testable quantitative understanding of problem. Implement with computer models. Goals: Better understand issues Develop and test management ideas Manage complex inter-related systems

    7. Thought Process for Systems Analysis

    8. 8 What is CALVIN? Computer model of California’s water system Surface and groundwater Supply and demand management options Economics-driven engineering optimization model Economic Values for Agricultural and Urban Uses Flow Constraints for Environmental Uses Prescribes monthly system operation Forces quantitative understanding of system

    9. 9 California’s Water System

    10. CALVIN Data Flow

    11. 11 Policy Activities Included Integrates a wide range of options Surface reservoir operations Groundwater reservoir operations Water allocation (markets & exchanges) Urban conservation/use efficiencies Cropping changes and fallowing Irrigation technologies & efficiencies Seawater desalination Wastewater reuse

    12. 12 CALVIN Applications for California Water Markets can substantially reduce water scarcity and its costs (2001). Conjunctive use with flexible water management can reduce scarcity costs and reliance on water imports in Southern California (2004). Under Climate Change scenarios, Central Valley agriculture is vulnerable to climate warming. (2003) Hetch Hetchy dam removal need not substantially increase water scarcity (2003). More on Climate Warming (ongoing)

    13. 13 Northern Baja California

    14. 14 Northern Baja California

    15. 15 Northern Baja California

    16. 16 Northern Baja California

    17. Northern Baja California Model Schematic

    18. 18 The Colorado River Delta Economic effects of restoration flows Economical sources for restoration flows Interactions with other Baja California water issues and management Interactions with US California water issues and management Local water reuse and conservation

    19. 19 Research Questions What are the economic effects of the Colorado River Delta restoration flows on: Mexicali farmers? The city of Mexicali? Tijuana and Tecate? Transboundary concerns? Whose water rights could be affected? What are the most promising sources of water for restoration? Mexican users? US users?

    20. 20 For Baja California in General… What are the economic effects of increased conveyance capacity in the CR-TJ aqueduct? Is there any gain from a joint San Diego-Tijuana water resources operation? Is desalination in the coastal zones of Baja California a promising water supply? Is there any gains from water reuse in Ensenada?

    21. 21 Where Are We? Collaborative efforts with Mexican researchers. Systems analysis workshop at University of Baja California in Ensenada, January 2005. Contacting local experts, utility companies, agencies, and researchers in the area. Data gathering. Initial model construction.

    22. In a Systems Analysis Context, Where Are We?

    23. 23 Conclusions Colorado River Delta restoration is linked to larger Baja California and US water issues. Involves economic, legal, engineering, and hydrologic issues in a complex multi-use, multi-state, multi-national context. An explicit quantitative understanding can aid experimentation and testing of solutions. More to come…

    24. 24 Acknowledgments Integrated Water-Environmental Systems Group, UCDavis. In particular, I thank Stacy Tanaka and Marion Jenkins. Professor Jay Lund, CEE UCDavis Professor Leopoldo Mendoza-Espinosa UABC-Ensenada Professor Ramón de Jesús Ramírez, UABC-Tijuana Mario Díaz, M.S. Comisión Estatal de Servicios Públicos de Tijuana

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