Potential impacts of climate change on fisheries trade Graeme Macfadyen

1. Potential impacts of climate change on fisheries tradeGraeme Macfadyen

2. Global Warming Physical Changes in oceans, lakes and rivers, including… Impacts varying by region/location Heat content and temperature Salinity and stratification Ocean circulation and upwelling Acidification & chemical changes Sea level rise & change in lake levels & river flows Sediment levels Frequency and severity of extreme events Low frequency climatevariability e.g. ENSO Impacts on fish and ecosystems, including… Impacts varying by region and adaptive capacity of fish and ecosystems to respond to the physical changes above Distribution of fish (permanent & migrations) Abundance of fish Phenology e.g. timing of natural phenomena Species invasion and disease Food web impacts Secondary production e.g. zooplankton Physiological, spawning & recruitment processes of fish Primary production (diatoms and phytoplankton) Effects on fishers, livelihoods, trade, and wider economy/society Impact pathways of climate change

3. Climate change implications for fishers • Direct biophysical changes • Catch/production volumes and mix • Direct extreme events impacts • Days at sea lost to poor weather • Safety • Loss/damage to assets (vessels, gear, cages) • Indirect impacts; changes in… • Fishing and aquaculture strategies (location, target species, seasonality, fishing gears, genetic modification) • Value-added and profits • Employment • Fish as food (availability, stability, access, utilisation of different species) • Ability of fisheries to act as livelihoods safety net • Balance of fish/fish farming income compared to income from other sources in households i.e. fish as a part of rural livelihoods • Costs required for adaptation

4. Climate change implications for national economies • Direct impacts; changes in… • Volume and species mix available • Damage to onshore coastal fisheries infrastructure • Coral reef cover • Indirect impacts; changes in… • Rent generation/extraction by government from sector • Fish sector exports (balance of payments, forex earnings, competitiveness) • Fish prices • Balance of benefits from fishing vs. aquaculture, marine vs. freshwater, and fisheries sector vs. other sectors • Fish as food • Balance of fish for domestic and export trade • Multiplier effects of fishing and aquaculture • Displacement and conflict • Sector investment • Costs of adaptation

5. Impacts of climate change specifically on fish trade

6. Impacts of climate change specifically on trade include: • Increasing severity of extreme events, sea level rise and changes in flood regimes • Variability of supplies due to increasing seasonal and annual variations in catches • Major discontinuities in supply due to damage to infrastructure • Physical impacts on biomass and location of fish available for catching and then trade • Adaptive measures affecting marketing chain (i.e. switch to different species, to aquaculture)

7. These impacts in turn likely to affect • Trade volumes and values • Domestic vs export trade • Traded vs subsistence • Balance of marine/inland, wild/farmed • Contribution of fish to total exports • Balance of trade and forex earnings • Value-added and profits from trade • Ability to sell licences to foreign vessels

8. Impacts of climate change on trade: important caveats • Climate change just one of many factors affecting fisheries and related trade. • Time-scales • Uncertainties in climate change models, and a lack of resolution in estimations at country level • Quantitative projections not possible, but can describe types of changes and pathways

9. Vulnerability to climate change Exposure: The nature and degree to which fisheries production systems are exposed to climate change Sensitivity: Degree to which national economies are dependent on fisheries and therefore sensitive to any change in the sector Potential impact: All impacts that may occur without taking into account planned adaptation Adaptive capacity: Ability or capacity of a system to modify or change to cope with changes in actual or expected climate stress = Vulnerability

10. Climate change impacts on fisheries are particularly important for developing nations • The world’s poorest countries are most vulnerable to climate change • Poorer countries tend to be more nutritionally and economically dependent on fish than wealthier countries

11. Case Studies:- Kenya- Maldives- Solomons

12. Case studies: What we did • Presented baseline indicators of dependency, exposure and adaptive capacity; • Provided information on current trade; and • Outlined possible climate change impacts and consider how the baseline figures, the status quo, and current trade might be affected by climate change

13. Trade status in case study countries presented in terms of: • Volume and value of exports • Main markets • Main product forms • Main competitors • Main stakeholders • Value-added and profitability • Foreign licences • Trends in above

14. Some key findings • Trade dependency on fisheries is lower in Kenya than in Maldives and the Solomon Islands • High dependencies on fish for both food security and employment in all 3 countries in specific locations • Declining reef fisheries important, esp in Maldives and Sol Is because of importance for food security. • Critical issue of bait fishery in Maldives on which whole tuna fishery is based • Changes to tuna migrations could result in additional threats to canning operations in Maldives and Sol Is

15. Some key findings, cont’d. • Any changes to the balance of species in Lake Victoria would have huge impacts in Kenya • None of 3 countries in very high risk tropical storm areas (except South of Sol Is) • The indicators of adaptive capacity for both Kenya and the Solomon Islands provide considerable cause for alarm . Maldives, despite its greater dependency on fisheries, may not necessarily be more vulnerable given its greater ability for adaptation

16. What can countries do?

17. What can countries do to maintain trade competitiveness • Adapt • Mitigate both can • ensure that production levels are maintained or increased on a sustainable basis for trade, and to assist with safeguarding of private sector profits; and • include policy options that are very specifically trade-related, and which provide opportunities that could result in competitive advantages being gained by countries implementing them

18. Adaptation at fisher/community level

19. Adaption at national level • Fisheries management frameworks supportive of sustainability • Strategies for infrastructure (ensuring there are safe havens, and climate proofing developments) • Disaster preparedness • Ensuring an enabling business environment • Support for technological developments facilitating adaptive measures

20. Adaption at national level, cont’d. • Manage declining incomes if fish catches fall, and efforts aimed at diversification • Aquaculture development • Ecosystem adaptation (e.g. support for wetlands, coral reefs, mangroves: provide protection and breeding/nursery areas) • Ensure policy coherence

21. Mitigation • Technical innovations to reduce fuel usage and emissions in fishing vessel engines • Promotion of fuel-efficient fishing methods (e.g. static methods rather than trawling), through differential licensing conditions and/or decommissioning support; • Research into support for low impact aquaculture e.g. herbivorous aquaculture species • Improvements in building design and handling practices e.g. through better insulation in ice plants, freezing plants; • 'Environmentally-friendly' technologies; and • Mangrove protection/replanting, due to its role in carbon sequestration

22. Thank you!

23. Following slides not part of presentation but held in reserve for questions But they can be included in any hand-outs

24. Baseline indicators for fisheries & ecosystems

25. Baseline indicators, for communities

26. Baseline indicators for nations

27. Baseline indicators for nations, cont’d

28. Policy linkages: climate change and trade competitiveness • Domestic consumption or international trade • ‘Food miles’ debate • Trade in ecosystem –based services • UNFCCC and WTO prevent climate change measures being used as a TBT • Subsidies and domestic support mechanisms for adaptation • CITES listing may result from climate change • EPAs (GSP, GSP+ or full)

29. Coherence between various fora and policies • WTO negotiators need to be aware that the use of subsidies may be appropriate / necessary • Those preparing NAPAs and PRSPs must be made aware of the importance of fisheries • Eco-labeling and branding to generate benefits to pay for adaptation • Sustainability important for adaptation, but also for new EU IUU regulation

30. Coherence between various fora and policies, cont’d. • Negotiators of fisheries access agreements must ensure they are compatible with sustainability, and address domestic needs in face of climate change impacts • Govs should push at FAO COFI for normative and field-based initiatives aimed at adaptation • EPA financing support used for adaptation • Ensure that CITES listings don’t compromise trade, while reflecting sustainability needs

31. Funding for climate change adaptation • Inclusion of fisheries in both NAPAs and PRSPs can help to ensure fisheries-sector funding • The GEF operates three funds for UNFCCC: the GEF Trust Fund; the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF); and the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) • The international carbon market which has emerged as a result of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

32. Funding for climate change adaptation • The Adaption Fund under the Kyoto protocol • Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) • Multinational and bilateral donors • Foundations and NGOs/INGOs • Private sector: • Rent collection from industry • Private sector retailers and consumers in developed countries • The insurance market to enhance financial resilience